The Market ThesisWeekly Summary
United States Edition
October 31, 2026 at 9:00 AM ET
By MacroGlide's Analysts
Markets Recap for the week of October 26 – November 1, 2026
Tech Selloff Drives Market Lower Amid Earnings Pressure
Weekly Top Trends
Cadence Design Systems reported an EPS of $1.59, which was below its $1.61 estimate for the week. The stock's miss fed into weakness in US technology shares, with the Nasdaq 100 dropping 1.98%. This underperformance signaled selective earnings pressure rather than a broad sector collapse.
Obamacare premiums are set to climb by an average of 13% in 2027, following earlier increases. The step-up in healthcare costs will further strain household budgets as overall spending faces more pressure. Mounting consumer cost burdens now extend beyond goods and energy into essential services.
US personal spending rose by 0.5% in September, while personal income gained just 0.2% in the same period. The gap between these growth rates widened as the Core PCE Price Index moved up to 3.1%. Persistent inflation and lagging income growth are squeezing discretionary outlays for US households.
Benchmark Moves
The S&P 500 dropped 0.57% this week, mainly due to a significant selloff in technology stocks, highlighted by a 12.61% decline in Alphabet (GOOGL) after a disappointing earnings report. The decline in equities coincided with a 2.72% fall in gold prices, which reached $3,898.90 as market focus shifted away from safe-haven assets amid rising inflation signals. Additionally, the US Dollar Index gained 0.21%, closing at 101.96, suggesting a strengthening of the dollar against other currencies in a risk-off market. As earnings reports continue to roll in and inflation pressures linger, this environment may exacerbate volatility and encourage a further rotation towards defensive sectors in the coming week.
Market data as of Oct 30, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET.
Market data as of Oct 30, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET.
Market data as of Oct 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM ET.
Key Financial Reports
US earnings this week showed mixed results, with Alphabet posting a notable miss while several other companies beat estimates and some raised guidance. The Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc. (HIG) posted $3.5 EPS against a $3.15 estimate, driven by growth in Business Insurance and Employee Benefits, stronger small business profitability, and higher investment income. Cadence Design Systems, Inc. (CDNS) reported adjusted EPS of $2.11 and GAAP EPS of $1.05; the call highlighted record backlog for the full year, stronger customer momentum, and accelerating adoption of Agentic AI, but also noted a moderation in recurring revenue growth. The pattern of mixed earnings results, including a notable miss from Alphabet, signals uneven business conditions across large-cap US sectors, despite several upward revisions elsewhere.
EPS reported the week of October 26 – November 1, 2026 ET. Figures use each company's reported basis.
Key Macroeconomic Reports
This week, inflation pressures in the U.S. remained a central theme as the Core PCE Price Index (YoY) rose to 3.1%, matching forecasts and reflecting persistent upward price pressures. Personal spending advanced by 0.5% in September, slightly below the expected increase, while personal income rose by only 0.2%, down from a previous 0.3%. These figures indicate a slowdown in consumer income growth, which may impact future spending trends. As inflation and spending signals diverge, the Federal Reserve's policy path may become more complex, potentially maintaining a cautious approach toward interest rates.
Macroeconomic data released the week of October 26 – November 1, 2026 ET.
Weekly Reflection
What was the main outcome of the week?
Technology stocks led a broad market decline following a stretch of earnings releases and sticky inflation readings. The Nasdaq 100 dropped nearly 2% and the S&P 500 fell over half a percent as earnings results stayed mixed, while the Core PCE Price Index rose to 3.1% year-on-year. Market pressure centered around weaker tech performance and signs of slowing personal income growth.
What do we infer from the market behavior?
The rotation out of growth stocks, especially seen in tech names and a 3% drop for NVIDIA, signals a shift toward more defensive positioning. Investors were reactive to tech earnings surprises and persistent inflation, as price action favored sectors and companies with more stable profit and cash-flow profiles. Short-term volatility picked up as participants adjusted portfolios in response to fundamental shifts in earnings and inflation data.
What the week revealed about the current market state?
The week revealed that the market is under renewed pressure from a weakening growth narrative and upward cost pressures. Key indicators like slowing personal income (up just 0.2%) and higher core inflation reflect headwinds to consumer-demand support, while the stronger Durable Goods Orders print showed some underlying resilience outside tech. The market structure is characterized by choppy leadership, loss of momentum in big-cap growth, and selective pockets of strength tied to stable earnings or positive surprises.
How these insights shape the forward picture?
Forward focus now lands on further inflation prints, upcoming earnings releases, and the impact of the Fed’s held policy rate on broader demand. Market participants will be watching for evidence that income and spending can outpace rising prices, as higher costs and patchy earnings leave less margin for disappointment. This new environment raises the bar for tech and growth stocks to rebuild momentum, while sectors with consistent profits could see steady inflows.
Top Stories
A quick look at the five stories that shaped this week's market sentiment. Explained with brief context highlighting why each story mattered this week.
Source: NYT — Business
Binance Lost Over $6 Billion in Crypto Hack. Here’s What to Know.
Hackers stole approximately $6 billion in digital currency from Binance, marking one of the largest crypto heists in history. In response to the incident, Binance announced it would cover the losses incurred by its users. The breach raises significant concerns about security in the cryptocurrency sector, which has faced multiple high-profile hacks in recent years. Binance's commitment to covering the losses may help restore some confidence among its users.
Source: The Guardian — US Business
Anthropic files for potentially record-breaking stock market valuation in key test for AI industry
Anthropic has filed for a stock market listing, potentially valuing the company at over $1.5 trillion, making it one of the largest debuts in U.S. history. The company reported rapid revenue growth, projecting $41 million in 2023, $386 million in 2024, and $4.585 billion in 2025. Despite this growth, Anthropic disclosed a net loss of $80 billion for the first half of 2026 and carries $6.2 billion in debt. The filing highlights risks related to its business model and the potential misuse of its AI technology.
Source: NYT — Business
The Federal Reserve Will Release Its Interest Rate Decision Today. Here’s What to Watch.
The Federal Reserve held its interest rate steady this week, in line with analysts' predictions that rates would remain unchanged. This decision comes just days before the midterm elections, which could influence economic policies moving forward. Investors and economists will be closely monitoring the Fed's statement for any indications of future monetary policy adjustments. The central bank's stance on interest rates is crucial for market stability and economic growth.
Source: MarketWatch — Top Stories
Economy grows at fastest pace in a year, GDP shows — and shows little sign of slowing
The U.S. economy has recorded its fastest growth rate in a year, driven by a surge in artificial intelligence and increased spending by affluent consumers. This growth indicates a robust economic recovery and suggests that the momentum may continue. The positive economic indicators could influence future fiscal and monetary policies as policymakers assess the sustainability of this growth. Analysts will be watching closely for any signs of potential slowdowns in the coming months.
Source: MarketWatch — Top Stories
CoreWeave and other AI stocks rise as Anthropic restores the market’s faith in sustained spending
Following Anthropic's IPO filing, AI stocks, including CoreWeave, have seen a rise in investor confidence. The trends outlined in Anthropic's filing have resonated with investors, reflecting the ongoing interest in AI technology. This renewed faith in sustained spending on AI has buoyed the market for related stocks, suggesting a potential rebound in the sector. The performance of these stocks will be closely monitored as the AI industry continues to evolve.
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Explore all past issues →The Market ThesisWeekly Summary
United States Edition
October 31, 2026 at 9:00 AM ET
Markets Recap for the week of October 26 – November 1, 2026
Tech Selloff Drives Market Lower Amid Earnings Pressure
Weekly Top Trends
Cadence Design Systems reported an EPS of $1.59, which was below its $1.61 estimate for the week. The stock's miss fed into weakness in US technology shares, with the Nasdaq 100 dropping 1.98%. This underperformance signaled selective earnings pressure rather than a broad sector collapse.
Obamacare premiums are set to climb by an average of 13% in 2027, following earlier increases. The step-up in healthcare costs will further strain household budgets as overall spending faces more pressure. Mounting consumer cost burdens now extend beyond goods and energy into essential services.
US personal spending rose by 0.5% in September, while personal income gained just 0.2% in the same period. The gap between these growth rates widened as the Core PCE Price Index moved up to 3.1%. Persistent inflation and lagging income growth are squeezing discretionary outlays for US households.
Benchmark Moves
The S&P 500 dropped 0.57% this week, mainly due to a significant selloff in technology stocks, highlighted by a 12.61% decline in Alphabet (GOOGL) after a disappointing earnings report. The decline in equities coincided with a 2.72% fall in gold prices, which reached $3,898.90 as market focus shifted away from safe-haven assets amid rising inflation signals. Additionally, the US Dollar Index gained 0.21%, closing at 101.96, suggesting a strengthening of the dollar against other currencies in a risk-off market. As earnings reports continue to roll in and inflation pressures linger, this environment may exacerbate volatility and encourage a further rotation towards defensive sectors in the coming week.
Indexes
Detailed View →Market data as of Oct 30, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET.
Stocks
Detailed View →Market data as of Oct 30, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET.
Commodities & Crypto
Detailed View →Market data as of Oct 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM ET.
Key Financial Reports
US earnings this week showed mixed results, with Alphabet posting a notable miss while several other companies beat estimates and some raised guidance. The Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc. (HIG) posted $3.5 EPS against a $3.15 estimate, driven by growth in Business Insurance and Employee Benefits, stronger small business profitability, and higher investment income. Cadence Design Systems, Inc. (CDNS) reported adjusted EPS of $2.11 and GAAP EPS of $1.05; the call highlighted record backlog for the full year, stronger customer momentum, and accelerating adoption of Agentic AI, but also noted a moderation in recurring revenue growth. The pattern of mixed earnings results, including a notable miss from Alphabet, signals uneven business conditions across large-cap US sectors, despite several upward revisions elsewhere.
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
Detailed View →EPS reported the week of October 26 – November 1, 2026 ET. Figures use each company's reported basis.
Key Macroeconomic Reports
This week, inflation pressures in the U.S. remained a central theme as the Core PCE Price Index (YoY) rose to 3.1%, matching forecasts and reflecting persistent upward price pressures. Personal spending advanced by 0.5% in September, slightly below the expected increase, while personal income rose by only 0.2%, down from a previous 0.3%. These figures indicate a slowdown in consumer income growth, which may impact future spending trends. As inflation and spending signals diverge, the Federal Reserve's policy path may become more complex, potentially maintaining a cautious approach toward interest rates.
Macroeconomic Data
Detailed View →Macroeconomic data released the week of October 26 – November 1, 2026 ET.
Weekly Reflection
What was the main outcome of the week?
Technology stocks led a broad market decline following a stretch of earnings releases and sticky inflation readings. The Nasdaq 100 dropped nearly 2% and the S&P 500 fell over half a percent as earnings results stayed mixed, while the Core PCE Price Index rose to 3.1% year-on-year. Market pressure centered around weaker tech performance and signs of slowing personal income growth.
What do we infer from the market behavior?
The rotation out of growth stocks, especially seen in tech names and a 3% drop for NVIDIA, signals a shift toward more defensive positioning. Investors were reactive to tech earnings surprises and persistent inflation, as price action favored sectors and companies with more stable profit and cash-flow profiles. Short-term volatility picked up as participants adjusted portfolios in response to fundamental shifts in earnings and inflation data.
What the week revealed about the current market state?
The week revealed that the market is under renewed pressure from a weakening growth narrative and upward cost pressures. Key indicators like slowing personal income (up just 0.2%) and higher core inflation reflect headwinds to consumer-demand support, while the stronger Durable Goods Orders print showed some underlying resilience outside tech. The market structure is characterized by choppy leadership, loss of momentum in big-cap growth, and selective pockets of strength tied to stable earnings or positive surprises.
How these insights shape the forward picture?
Forward focus now lands on further inflation prints, upcoming earnings releases, and the impact of the Fed’s held policy rate on broader demand. Market participants will be watching for evidence that income and spending can outpace rising prices, as higher costs and patchy earnings leave less margin for disappointment. This new environment raises the bar for tech and growth stocks to rebuild momentum, while sectors with consistent profits could see steady inflows.
Top Stories
A quick look at the five stories that shaped this week's market sentiment. Explained with brief context highlighting why each story mattered this week.
Binance Lost Over $6 Billion in Crypto Hack. Here’s What to Know.
Hackers stole approximately $6 billion in digital currency from Binance, marking one of the largest crypto heists in history. In response to the incident, Binance announced it would cover the losses incurred by its users. The breach raises significant concerns about security in the cryptocurrency sector, which has faced multiple high-profile hacks in recent years. Binance's commitment to covering the losses may help restore some confidence among its users.
Source: NYT — Business
Anthropic files for potentially record-breaking stock market valuation in key test for AI industry
Anthropic has filed for a stock market listing, potentially valuing the company at over $1.5 trillion, making it one of the largest debuts in U.S. history. The company reported rapid revenue growth, projecting $41 million in 2023, $386 million in 2024, and $4.585 billion in 2025. Despite this growth, Anthropic disclosed a net loss of $80 billion for the first half of 2026 and carries $6.2 billion in debt. The filing highlights risks related to its business model and the potential misuse of its AI technology.
Source: The Guardian — US Business
The Federal Reserve Will Release Its Interest Rate Decision Today. Here’s What to Watch.
The Federal Reserve held its interest rate steady this week, in line with analysts' predictions that rates would remain unchanged. This decision comes just days before the midterm elections, which could influence economic policies moving forward. Investors and economists will be closely monitoring the Fed's statement for any indications of future monetary policy adjustments. The central bank's stance on interest rates is crucial for market stability and economic growth.
Source: NYT — Business
Economy grows at fastest pace in a year, GDP shows — and shows little sign of slowing
The U.S. economy has recorded its fastest growth rate in a year, driven by a surge in artificial intelligence and increased spending by affluent consumers. This growth indicates a robust economic recovery and suggests that the momentum may continue. The positive economic indicators could influence future fiscal and monetary policies as policymakers assess the sustainability of this growth. Analysts will be watching closely for any signs of potential slowdowns in the coming months.
Source: MarketWatch — Top Stories
CoreWeave and other AI stocks rise as Anthropic restores the market’s faith in sustained spending
Following Anthropic's IPO filing, AI stocks, including CoreWeave, have seen a rise in investor confidence. The trends outlined in Anthropic's filing have resonated with investors, reflecting the ongoing interest in AI technology. This renewed faith in sustained spending on AI has buoyed the market for related stocks, suggesting a potential rebound in the sector. The performance of these stocks will be closely monitored as the AI industry continues to evolve.
Source: MarketWatch — Top Stories
Other Headlines
Enjoying The Market Thesis? Get more news and analysis with our regional editions for Asia & Pacific and Europe & UK.
If you received this newsletter from someone else, subscribe here.
To stop receiving The Market Thesis, unsubscribe.
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