The Market ThesisNext Week Outlook
United States Edition
October 25, 2026 at 9:00 AM ET
By MacroGlide's Analysts
Markets Outlook for the week of October 26 – November 1, 2026
Fed Rate Decision and Major Earnings Reports Ahead
Is the market ready for the week ahead?
A busy week for the US features the Federal Reserve's rate decision, with the Fed funds rate expected to hold at 4.00% after the last meeting raised the rate by 25 basis points. September's Core PCE Price Index is forecast to rise 0.3% month-on-month, matching its four-quarter average, while Core PCE (YoY) is seen at 3.1%. Q3 GDP growth is expected to accelerate to 3.2%, up from 2.2% in the prior quarter. On earnings, Microsoft reports with an EPS estimate of $4.71, and Amazon follows with a consensus of $2.01. Together, sticky US inflation readings and heavyweight tech earnings keep pressure on equity index positioning and rate expectations.
Key Upcoming Events
Fed Interest Rate Decision
The Federal Reserve announces its interest rate decision on October 28. The market consensus is for the Fed funds rate to hold steady at 4.00%, after the previous meeting raised it by 25 basis points. This event matters because persistent inflation and mixed growth patterns keep policy uncertainty high in the current environment. The decision and accompanying statement will be analyzed for any shifts in guidance alongside sticky inflation and recent Treasury volatility, given current macro and policy backdrop. Treasury yields are most sensitive through changes in forward rate expectations and liquidity signals.
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv Release
Q3 GDP Growth Rate (Advance) is reported on October 29. Forecast is for growth of 3.2% versus a previous 2.2% in Q2. This release is important now because strong output would reinforce the durability of US expansion amid policy tightening and global volatility. Upside or downside surprises will be weighed against current inflation trends and Fed policy stance in the macro backdrop. S&P 500 index levels and sector rotation are sensitive via changing growth and earnings sentiment.
Core PCE Price Index Report
The Core PCE Price Index for September is released on October 29. Consensus is for a 0.3% month-over-month increase, up from the previous 0.2%. This indicator matters because it is the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation, and stickier prints complicate the case for rate cuts in the current pricing regime. The data will be analyzed alongside wage and goods trends, given current inflation backdrop and shifting rate expectations. Rates and yields are especially sensitive as the print feeds directly into policy outlook.
Microsoft Earnings Report
Microsoft (MSFT) reports earnings after the close on October 28. The EPS estimate is $4.71, compared to $4.74 in the prior quarter. This update is key because Microsoft’s results will show how large-cap tech is navigating cost pressures and demand in the current earnings cycle. The report will be viewed alongside other megacap tech earnings for confirmation of leadership breadth in the macro and rate backdrop. Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices react via tech sector weight and broader index positioning.
Amazon Earnings Report
Amazon (AMZN) releases quarterly results after the bell on October 29. The consensus EPS is $2.01, an increase from $1.88 previously. This event is closely watched because Amazon’s results offer real-time visibility into e-commerce demand and consumer strength given current growth and inflation conditions. Outcomes are analyzed in the context of current sector breadth and changing recession odds in the macro backdrop. Retail sector stocks and overall S&P 500 index levels are sensitive as Amazon’s results feed into views on discretionary consumer demand.
Seasonality
A brief look at the strongest seasonal patterns for the week ahead. These patterns highlight date ranges where this asset has historically shown consistent moves.
Sample period varies by company from 7 to 10 years of historical data.
Sample period varies by company from 7 to 10 years of historical data.
Key Financial Reports
Key earnings reports are set for next week, starting with Microsoft (MSFT) on October 28, with an EPS estimate of $4.71, slightly down from $4.74 previously. Amazon (AMZN) follows on October 29, expected to report $2.01, up from $1.88 last quarter. Both companies' results will be critical in assessing the tech sector's health amid rising costs. The market's reaction to these earnings will likely hinge on broader economic conditions, particularly inflation and consumer spending trends.
EPS scheduled for the week of October 26 – November 1, 2026 ET.
Key Macroeconomic Reports
Several important macroeconomic reports are due next week. Durable Goods Orders for September will be released on October 27, with a forecast of 0.6%, up from 0.0% previously. The Fed's interest rate decision on October 28 will also be crucial, as it could signal future monetary policy direction. Additionally, the GDP Growth Rate for Q3 is expected to show a significant increase to 3.2%, compared to 2.2% previously. These indicators will be closely watched for their impact on rates and market sentiment.
Macroeconomic data scheduled for the week of October 26 – November 1, 2026 ET.
Top Stories
A quick look at the five stories that are set to shape next week's market sentiment. Explained with brief context highlighting why each story matters next week.
Source: MarketWatch — Top Stories
Oil markets are on edge ahead of the weekend, as midterm elections near and fresh U.S. strikes on Iran are predicted
Oil prices have surged to levels not seen since the onset of the Iran conflict, as speculation grows that the U.S. and Israel may conduct strikes on Iran following the upcoming midterm elections. This potential military action is causing uncertainty in oil markets, with traders closely monitoring developments. The situation is heightened by the elections, which could influence the timing of any military decisions. As a result, oil markets remain on edge as the weekend approaches.
Source: MarketWatch — Top Stories
Why the midterm elections are likely to become a strong tailwind for the stock market
Historically, the six months following midterm elections have been favorable for the stock market, with strong gains typically observed. Analysts suggest that this trend may continue, providing a boost to investor sentiment and market performance. The upcoming elections could serve as a catalyst for positive market movements, as political outcomes often influence economic policies. Investors are closely watching the election results for indications of future market direction.
Source: NYT — DealBook
U.S. to Tap Heating Oil Reserves Ahead of Midterm Elections
The Trump administration plans to release 315,000 barrels of heating oil from reserves ahead of the midterm elections. However, analysts believe this amount is insufficient to significantly impact market conditions. The move is seen as a response to rising energy costs and aims to stabilize heating oil prices. Despite the release, experts remain skeptical about its effectiveness in addressing broader energy market challenges.
Source: CNBC — Economy
UK inflation jumps to 3.5% — cementing rate hike expectations
U.K. inflation rose to 3.5% in September, exceeding economists' expectations of 3.4%. This increase was driven by a 29.8% surge in motor fuel prices, marking the highest inflation rate in nearly a year. The rise complicates the fiscal landscape for the U.K. government, as Chancellor of the Exchequer John Healey prepares for the Autumn Budget. Markets anticipate a 98% likelihood of a 25 basis point interest rate hike by the Bank of England next month, reflecting growing concerns over inflation.
Source: The Guardian — US Business
China’s economy grows faster than forecast after AI boom boosts exports
China's economy grew by 4.5% year-on-year in the third quarter, surpassing forecasts and driven by strong export demand, particularly in electronics and AI-related sectors. Industrial production increased by 5.5% in September, while retail sales rose only 1.1%. The GDP growth reflects government efforts to stabilize the economy amidst global challenges. However, fixed-asset investment and property investment saw significant declines, indicating ongoing weaknesses in domestic demand.
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Explore all past issues →The Market ThesisNext Week Outlook
United States Edition
October 25, 2026 at 9:00 AM ET
Markets Outlook for the week of October 26 – November 1, 2026
Fed Rate Decision and Major Earnings Reports Ahead
Is the market ready for the week ahead?
A busy week for the US features the Federal Reserve's rate decision, with the Fed funds rate expected to hold at 4.00% after the last meeting raised the rate by 25 basis points. September's Core PCE Price Index is forecast to rise 0.3% month-on-month, matching its four-quarter average, while Core PCE (YoY) is seen at 3.1%. Q3 GDP growth is expected to accelerate to 3.2%, up from 2.2% in the prior quarter. On earnings, Microsoft reports with an EPS estimate of $4.71, and Amazon follows with a consensus of $2.01. Together, sticky US inflation readings and heavyweight tech earnings keep pressure on equity index positioning and rate expectations.
Key Upcoming Events
Fed Interest Rate Decision
The Federal Reserve announces its interest rate decision on October 28. The market consensus is for the Fed funds rate to hold steady at 4.00%, after the previous meeting raised it by 25 basis points. This event matters because persistent inflation and mixed growth patterns keep policy uncertainty high in the current environment. The decision and accompanying statement will be analyzed for any shifts in guidance alongside sticky inflation and recent Treasury volatility, given current macro and policy backdrop. Treasury yields are most sensitive through changes in forward rate expectations and liquidity signals.
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv Release
Q3 GDP Growth Rate (Advance) is reported on October 29. Forecast is for growth of 3.2% versus a previous 2.2% in Q2. This release is important now because strong output would reinforce the durability of US expansion amid policy tightening and global volatility. Upside or downside surprises will be weighed against current inflation trends and Fed policy stance in the macro backdrop. S&P 500 index levels and sector rotation are sensitive via changing growth and earnings sentiment.
Core PCE Price Index Report
The Core PCE Price Index for September is released on October 29. Consensus is for a 0.3% month-over-month increase, up from the previous 0.2%. This indicator matters because it is the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation, and stickier prints complicate the case for rate cuts in the current pricing regime. The data will be analyzed alongside wage and goods trends, given current inflation backdrop and shifting rate expectations. Rates and yields are especially sensitive as the print feeds directly into policy outlook.
Microsoft Earnings Report
Microsoft (MSFT) reports earnings after the close on October 28. The EPS estimate is $4.71, compared to $4.74 in the prior quarter. This update is key because Microsoft’s results will show how large-cap tech is navigating cost pressures and demand in the current earnings cycle. The report will be viewed alongside other megacap tech earnings for confirmation of leadership breadth in the macro and rate backdrop. Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices react via tech sector weight and broader index positioning.
Amazon Earnings Report
Amazon (AMZN) releases quarterly results after the bell on October 29. The consensus EPS is $2.01, an increase from $1.88 previously. This event is closely watched because Amazon’s results offer real-time visibility into e-commerce demand and consumer strength given current growth and inflation conditions. Outcomes are analyzed in the context of current sector breadth and changing recession odds in the macro backdrop. Retail sector stocks and overall S&P 500 index levels are sensitive as Amazon’s results feed into views on discretionary consumer demand.
Seasonality
A brief look at the strongest seasonal patterns for the week ahead. These patterns highlight date ranges where this asset has historically shown consistent moves.
Stocks & ETFs
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Sample period varies by company from 7 to 10 years of historical data.
Commodities & Crypto
Detailed View →Return
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Sample period varies by company from 7 to 10 years of historical data.
Key Financial Reports
Key earnings reports are set for next week, starting with Microsoft (MSFT) on October 28, with an EPS estimate of $4.71, slightly down from $4.74 previously. Amazon (AMZN) follows on October 29, expected to report $2.01, up from $1.88 last quarter. Both companies' results will be critical in assessing the tech sector's health amid rising costs. The market's reaction to these earnings will likely hinge on broader economic conditions, particularly inflation and consumer spending trends.
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
Detailed View →Reaction
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EPS scheduled for the week of October 26 – November 1, 2026 ET.
Key Macroeconomic Reports
Several important macroeconomic reports are due next week. Durable Goods Orders for September will be released on October 27, with a forecast of 0.6%, up from 0.0% previously. The Fed's interest rate decision on October 28 will also be crucial, as it could signal future monetary policy direction. Additionally, the GDP Growth Rate for Q3 is expected to show a significant increase to 3.2%, compared to 2.2% previously. These indicators will be closely watched for their impact on rates and market sentiment.
Macroeconomic Data
Detailed View →Macroeconomic data scheduled for the week of October 26 – November 1, 2026 ET.
Top Stories
A quick look at the five stories that are set to shape next week's market sentiment. Explained with brief context highlighting why each story matters next week.
Oil markets are on edge ahead of the weekend, as midterm elections near and fresh U.S. strikes on Iran are predicted
Oil prices have surged to levels not seen since the onset of the Iran conflict, as speculation grows that the U.S. and Israel may conduct strikes on Iran following the upcoming midterm elections. This potential military action is causing uncertainty in oil markets, with traders closely monitoring developments. The situation is heightened by the elections, which could influence the timing of any military decisions. As a result, oil markets remain on edge as the weekend approaches.
Source: MarketWatch — Top Stories
Why the midterm elections are likely to become a strong tailwind for the stock market
Historically, the six months following midterm elections have been favorable for the stock market, with strong gains typically observed. Analysts suggest that this trend may continue, providing a boost to investor sentiment and market performance. The upcoming elections could serve as a catalyst for positive market movements, as political outcomes often influence economic policies. Investors are closely watching the election results for indications of future market direction.
Source: MarketWatch — Top Stories
U.S. to Tap Heating Oil Reserves Ahead of Midterm Elections
The Trump administration plans to release 315,000 barrels of heating oil from reserves ahead of the midterm elections. However, analysts believe this amount is insufficient to significantly impact market conditions. The move is seen as a response to rising energy costs and aims to stabilize heating oil prices. Despite the release, experts remain skeptical about its effectiveness in addressing broader energy market challenges.
Source: NYT — DealBook
UK inflation jumps to 3.5% — cementing rate hike expectations
U.K. inflation rose to 3.5% in September, exceeding economists' expectations of 3.4%. This increase was driven by a 29.8% surge in motor fuel prices, marking the highest inflation rate in nearly a year. The rise complicates the fiscal landscape for the U.K. government, as Chancellor of the Exchequer John Healey prepares for the Autumn Budget. Markets anticipate a 98% likelihood of a 25 basis point interest rate hike by the Bank of England next month, reflecting growing concerns over inflation.
Source: CNBC — Economy
China’s economy grows faster than forecast after AI boom boosts exports
China's economy grew by 4.5% year-on-year in the third quarter, surpassing forecasts and driven by strong export demand, particularly in electronics and AI-related sectors. Industrial production increased by 5.5% in September, while retail sales rose only 1.1%. The GDP growth reflects government efforts to stabilize the economy amidst global challenges. However, fixed-asset investment and property investment saw significant declines, indicating ongoing weaknesses in domestic demand.
Source: The Guardian — US Business
Other Headlines
Enjoying The Market Thesis? Get more news and analysis with our regional editions for Asia & Pacific and Europe & UK.
If you received this newsletter from someone else, subscribe here.
To stop receiving The Market Thesis, unsubscribe.
Follow Us
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