The Market ThesisNext Week Outlook
United States Edition
November 8, 2026 at 9:00 AM ET
By MacroGlide's Analysts
Markets Outlook for the week of November 9 – 15, 2026
CPI Data and Key Earnings to Shape Markets
Is the market ready for the week ahead?
US markets enter the week with inflation in focus as the CPI report arrives Tuesday. Core inflation is forecast at 2.8% year-over-year, up from 2.6%, while headline CPI is expected to ease on a monthly basis to 0.3%. Alongside key macro data, earnings from KKR, with an EPS estimate of 1.41, and Applied Materials at 4.06, draw investor attention, with KKR reporting on November 9 and Applied Materials on November 12. Softening price gains but firm core inflation signals persistent cost pressure, especially if earnings show mixed trends. This mix leaves positioning tight, as inflation surprises or earnings misses keep risk appetite in check across equities and rates.
Key Upcoming Events
CPI Inflation Report Released
The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report is released on November 10. Forecast for headline CPI year-over-year is 3.9% versus previous 3.7%. This release is important because current inflation remains well above the Federal Reserve’s target while economic growth has slowed. Against the current policy backdrop, strong CPI readings keep rate expectations elevated and investor positioning cautious across asset classes. Treasury yields and the dollar respond through changes in interest rate outlook and risk appetite.
Core CPI Inflation Data Released
The core CPI inflation rate is published on November 10. Consensus estimate is 2.8% year-over-year, compared to the previous 2.6%. Core inflation matters now because persistent price pressures, excluding food and energy, influence household spending and shape policy expectations. In the current inflation regime, movement in core CPI alongside headline numbers guides market focus on how sticky underlying inflation remains. Policy-sensitive assets like yields and equities adjust via shifts in Federal Reserve expectations and discount rates.
KKR Quarterly Earnings Announced
KKR reports Q3 earnings on November 9, with an EPS estimate of 1.41 versus prior 1.48. The consensus looks for a modest earnings dip as private equity valuations and deal activity reflect the higher rate environment. This update is relevant because financial sector results now give a read on credit markets and cross-asset risk appetite. Combined with ongoing policy uncertainty, results from KKR gauge positioning and breadth in financials in the current macro backdrop. KKR’s stock and broader financial indexes may move through earnings surprise and forward guidance impact.
Applied Materials Earnings Reported
Applied Materials releases earnings on November 12, with an EPS estimate of 4.06 versus previous 3.50. Analysts expect continued earnings growth as capacity and supply constraints ease; consensus projects a strong sequential gain. This event is important because the semiconductor sector is a key driver of US tech performance and broader manufacturing demand. Alongside inflation data and sector momentum, results from Applied Materials inform positioning in the current growth and supply chain backdrop. Tech stocks and related indexes move through realized and forward earnings guidance.
Cisco Systems Earnings Released
Cisco Systems announces earnings on November 12, with an EPS estimate of 1.15 compared to prior 1.08. The consensus points to stable to moderate EPS growth as digital infrastructure spending remains steady. Cisco’s results matter because in the current regime, IT capital spending trends shape sentiment in large-cap tech and broader markets. Given current positioning and policy backdrop, guidance from Cisco is closely linked to sector leadership and breadth. The stock and tech indexes respond via realized earnings vs guidance and forward demand commentary.
Seasonality
A brief look at the strongest seasonal patterns for the week ahead. These patterns highlight date ranges where this asset has historically shown consistent moves.
Sample period varies by company from 7 to 10 years of historical data.
Sample period varies by company from 7 to 10 years of historical data.
Key Financial Reports
Key earnings reports next week include KKR (KKR) on November 9, with an EPS estimate of $1.41, down from $1.48 previously. Applied Materials (AMAT) reports on November 12, expecting $4.06, up from $3.50. Cisco Systems (CSCO) is also set to report on November 12, with an estimate of $1.15, compared to $1.08 previously. These earnings will be closely watched as they reflect the companies' performance amid current economic conditions.
EPS scheduled for the week of November 9 – 15, 2026 ET.
Key Macroeconomic Reports
The CPI report on November 10 is crucial as it is expected to show a year-over-year increase in headline CPI to 3.9%, up from 3.7%. Core inflation is forecasted to rise to 2.8% year-over-year, up from 2.6%. These inflation figures will provide key insights into price pressures that could impact market expectations for future economic growth. Traders will be closely watching for any surprises that could affect the outlook for interest rates.
Macroeconomic data scheduled for the week of November 9 – 15, 2026 ET.
Top Stories
A quick look at the five stories that are set to shape next week's market sentiment. Explained with brief context highlighting why each story matters next week.
Source: MarketWatch — Top Stories
Think the Fed will be done after two more rate hikes? How Friday’s jobs report may trigger a major market repricing.
The Federal Reserve may need to adjust its rate hike plans after the October jobs report showed unexpectedly strong job growth that could lead to a major market repricing. The focus is on how many more rate hikes will be necessary after two additional increases are anticipated. The timing and number of these hikes remain uncertain, depending on the jobs data already released and other economic indicators.
Source: CNBC — Economy
The October jobs report is out Friday. Here's everything to expect
The October jobs report, released Friday, showed stronger-than-forecast job growth, with nonfarm payrolls rising 165,000 versus economists' forecast of 59,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, below the 4.2% projection. The labor force participation rate edged up to 61.9% from 61.8%, while job openings had increased by 333,000 in September, indicating a mixed labor market.
Source: CNBC — Finance
Americans are on a 'treadmill of high inflation' and more rate hikes are likely, Fed's Daly says
San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly indicated that further interest rate hikes are likely, though the timing remains uncertain. The U.S. economy added 165,000 jobs in October, with the unemployment rate decreasing to 4.1%. Despite this positive job growth, inflation continues to pressure household finances, with average hourly earnings rising 3.1% annually against a 3.7% inflation rate. Daly noted that while the job market is stable, real wages are not keeping pace with inflation.
Source: MarketWatch — Top Stories
It’s finally Election Day — and prediction markets may show ‘too much confidence in a good night for Democrats’
On Election Day, November 3, analysts warned that prediction markets might be overly optimistic about Democratic prospects. They were concerned that these markets showed too much confidence in a favorable outcome for the party. They said these predictions could influence market behavior and voter sentiment as results came in. Analysts were watching these trends as the election unfolded.
Source: NYT — Economy
Stable Labor Market Keeps Fed on Track to Raise Rates Gradually
The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a gradual approach to interest rate increases, having opted not to raise rates in its recent meeting. However, another rate hike is anticipated in December as part of efforts to control inflation. The decision reflects a stable labor market, which supports the Fed's cautious stance. As inflation remains a concern, the Fed will continue to assess economic conditions before making further adjustments.
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Explore all past issues →The Market ThesisNext Week Outlook
United States Edition
November 8, 2026 at 9:00 AM ET
Markets Outlook for the week of November 9 – 15, 2026
CPI Data and Key Earnings to Shape Markets
Is the market ready for the week ahead?
US markets enter the week with inflation in focus as the CPI report arrives Tuesday. Core inflation is forecast at 2.8% year-over-year, up from 2.6%, while headline CPI is expected to ease on a monthly basis to 0.3%. Alongside key macro data, earnings from KKR, with an EPS estimate of 1.41, and Applied Materials at 4.06, draw investor attention, with KKR reporting on November 9 and Applied Materials on November 12. Softening price gains but firm core inflation signals persistent cost pressure, especially if earnings show mixed trends. This mix leaves positioning tight, as inflation surprises or earnings misses keep risk appetite in check across equities and rates.
Key Upcoming Events
CPI Inflation Report Released
The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report is released on November 10. Forecast for headline CPI year-over-year is 3.9% versus previous 3.7%. This release is important because current inflation remains well above the Federal Reserve’s target while economic growth has slowed. Against the current policy backdrop, strong CPI readings keep rate expectations elevated and investor positioning cautious across asset classes. Treasury yields and the dollar respond through changes in interest rate outlook and risk appetite.
Core CPI Inflation Data Released
The core CPI inflation rate is published on November 10. Consensus estimate is 2.8% year-over-year, compared to the previous 2.6%. Core inflation matters now because persistent price pressures, excluding food and energy, influence household spending and shape policy expectations. In the current inflation regime, movement in core CPI alongside headline numbers guides market focus on how sticky underlying inflation remains. Policy-sensitive assets like yields and equities adjust via shifts in Federal Reserve expectations and discount rates.
KKR Quarterly Earnings Announced
KKR reports Q3 earnings on November 9, with an EPS estimate of 1.41 versus prior 1.48. The consensus looks for a modest earnings dip as private equity valuations and deal activity reflect the higher rate environment. This update is relevant because financial sector results now give a read on credit markets and cross-asset risk appetite. Combined with ongoing policy uncertainty, results from KKR gauge positioning and breadth in financials in the current macro backdrop. KKR’s stock and broader financial indexes may move through earnings surprise and forward guidance impact.
Applied Materials Earnings Reported
Applied Materials releases earnings on November 12, with an EPS estimate of 4.06 versus previous 3.50. Analysts expect continued earnings growth as capacity and supply constraints ease; consensus projects a strong sequential gain. This event is important because the semiconductor sector is a key driver of US tech performance and broader manufacturing demand. Alongside inflation data and sector momentum, results from Applied Materials inform positioning in the current growth and supply chain backdrop. Tech stocks and related indexes move through realized and forward earnings guidance.
Cisco Systems Earnings Released
Cisco Systems announces earnings on November 12, with an EPS estimate of 1.15 compared to prior 1.08. The consensus points to stable to moderate EPS growth as digital infrastructure spending remains steady. Cisco’s results matter because in the current regime, IT capital spending trends shape sentiment in large-cap tech and broader markets. Given current positioning and policy backdrop, guidance from Cisco is closely linked to sector leadership and breadth. The stock and tech indexes respond via realized earnings vs guidance and forward demand commentary.
Seasonality
A brief look at the strongest seasonal patterns for the week ahead. These patterns highlight date ranges where this asset has historically shown consistent moves.
Stocks & ETFs
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Sample period varies by company from 7 to 10 years of historical data.
Commodities & Crypto
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Sample period varies by company from 7 to 10 years of historical data.
Key Financial Reports
Key earnings reports next week include KKR (KKR) on November 9, with an EPS estimate of $1.41, down from $1.48 previously. Applied Materials (AMAT) reports on November 12, expecting $4.06, up from $3.50. Cisco Systems (CSCO) is also set to report on November 12, with an estimate of $1.15, compared to $1.08 previously. These earnings will be closely watched as they reflect the companies' performance amid current economic conditions.
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
Detailed View →Reaction
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EPS scheduled for the week of November 9 – 15, 2026 ET.
Key Macroeconomic Reports
The CPI report on November 10 is crucial as it is expected to show a year-over-year increase in headline CPI to 3.9%, up from 3.7%. Core inflation is forecasted to rise to 2.8% year-over-year, up from 2.6%. These inflation figures will provide key insights into price pressures that could impact market expectations for future economic growth. Traders will be closely watching for any surprises that could affect the outlook for interest rates.
Macroeconomic Data
Detailed View →Macroeconomic data scheduled for the week of November 9 – 15, 2026 ET.
Top Stories
A quick look at the five stories that are set to shape next week's market sentiment. Explained with brief context highlighting why each story matters next week.
Think the Fed will be done after two more rate hikes? How Friday’s jobs report may trigger a major market repricing.
The Federal Reserve may need to adjust its rate hike plans after the October jobs report showed unexpectedly strong job growth that could lead to a major market repricing. The focus is on how many more rate hikes will be necessary after two additional increases are anticipated. The timing and number of these hikes remain uncertain, depending on the jobs data already released and other economic indicators.
Source: MarketWatch — Top Stories
The October jobs report is out Friday. Here's everything to expect
The October jobs report, released Friday, showed stronger-than-forecast job growth, with nonfarm payrolls rising 165,000 versus economists' forecast of 59,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, below the 4.2% projection. The labor force participation rate edged up to 61.9% from 61.8%, while job openings had increased by 333,000 in September, indicating a mixed labor market.
Source: CNBC — Economy
Americans are on a 'treadmill of high inflation' and more rate hikes are likely, Fed's Daly says
San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly indicated that further interest rate hikes are likely, though the timing remains uncertain. The U.S. economy added 165,000 jobs in October, with the unemployment rate decreasing to 4.1%. Despite this positive job growth, inflation continues to pressure household finances, with average hourly earnings rising 3.1% annually against a 3.7% inflation rate. Daly noted that while the job market is stable, real wages are not keeping pace with inflation.
Source: CNBC — Finance
It’s finally Election Day — and prediction markets may show ‘too much confidence in a good night for Democrats’
On Election Day, November 3, analysts warned that prediction markets might be overly optimistic about Democratic prospects. They were concerned that these markets showed too much confidence in a favorable outcome for the party. They said these predictions could influence market behavior and voter sentiment as results came in. Analysts were watching these trends as the election unfolded.
Source: MarketWatch — Top Stories
Stable Labor Market Keeps Fed on Track to Raise Rates Gradually
The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a gradual approach to interest rate increases, having opted not to raise rates in its recent meeting. However, another rate hike is anticipated in December as part of efforts to control inflation. The decision reflects a stable labor market, which supports the Fed's cautious stance. As inflation remains a concern, the Fed will continue to assess economic conditions before making further adjustments.
Source: NYT — Economy
Other Headlines
Enjoying The Market Thesis? Get more news and analysis with our regional editions for Asia & Pacific and Europe & UK.
If you received this newsletter from someone else, subscribe here.
To stop receiving The Market Thesis, unsubscribe.
Follow Us
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