The Market ThesisNext Week Outlook
United States Edition
August 9, 2026 at 9:00 AM ET
By MacroGlide's Analysts
Markets Outlook for the week of August 10 – 16, 2026
CPI Data and Earnings to Influence Market Direction
Is the market ready for the week ahead?
The upcoming week will be crucial for market trends, driven primarily by inflation reports and earnings releases. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to show a year-over-year decline to 3.4% on August 10, down from 3.5% previously. In addition, Simon Property Group's earnings report on August 10 is forecasted to reveal an EPS of 3.18, slightly up from 3.17, as retail real estate faces challenges. Following a weak jobs report, lower inflation may ease concerns about aggressive interest rate hikes, creating a more positive outlook for equities. These factors combined could influence investor sentiment and positioning in the coming days.
Key Upcoming Events
Consumer Price Index Released
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is released on August 10. The forecast for CPI is 3.4%, down from 3.5% prior. This report is critical as it reflects inflation trends influencing Federal Reserve decisions on interest rates. A lower CPI can ease rate hike fears, signaling a potential shift in monetary policy. This may impact bond yields and equity valuations as investors reassess growth expectations.
Retail Sales Data Released
Retail Sales data is released on August 11. The forecast is a modest increase of 0.1%, down from 0.2% previously. This data is vital as consumer spending trends directly affect economic growth. Weak retail sales may indicate a slowdown, challenging the recovery narrative. Market sentiment could be negatively affected, especially in consumer-oriented sectors.
Earnings Report from Cisco
Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) reports earnings on August 12. The estimated EPS is 0.99, up from 0.90 previously. With the technology sector under pressure, Cisco's performance is an indicator of overall tech demand. A better-than-expected report could boost confidence in tech stocks. This could translate to a positive reaction in tech sector valuations and indices.
Earnings Report from Applied Materials
Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT) is set to release earnings on August 13. The estimate for EPS is 3.36, rising from 2.86 previously. Insights from this report are crucial as they can reveal trends in semiconductor equipment demand. Strong results could bolster sentiment in the tech manufacturing space. This might lead to upward price movements in the semiconductor sector.
Earnings Report from Simon Property Group
Simon Property Group, Inc. (SPG) will report on August 10. The EPS estimate is 3.18, slightly up from 3.17 prior. Given recent consumer spending data, performance in retail real estate is under scrutiny. Insights into occupancy and rental income could indicate broader sector strength or weakness. This may influence market perspectives on related real estate equities.
Seasonality
A brief look at the strongest seasonal patterns for the week ahead. These patterns highlight date ranges where this asset has historically shown consistent moves.
Sample period varies by company from 7 to 10 years of historical data.
Sample period varies by company from 7 to 10 years of historical data.
Key Financial Reports
Applied Materials (AMAT) leads the week with an upbeat earnings estimate and a history of sharp stock moves-the last report triggered a -3.38% reaction. Cisco (CSCO) also reports, aiming for a slight profit lift after a quieter market response last quarter. Simon Property Group (SPG) posts steady results, with no significant surprises in recent releases. This group of reports will offer a clear read on tech hardware and retail property trends, but market-moving shocks look most likely from AMAT.
EPS scheduled for the week of August 10 – 16, 2026 ET.
Key Macroeconomic Reports
Key data this week centers on the NFIB Business Optimism Index and ADP employment reports. The NFIB is forecast at 97.8, a slight pick-up from 97.4 last month, but still below its 4Q average of 98.48. This suggests small business sentiment remains muted, which could weigh on hiring or capex plans. The recent ADP Employment Change was 15,000, down from its 4Q average of 17,750, reinforcing signs of slower job growth after soft payroll data. If business and labor indicators stay subdued, markets may see less pressure for another Fed rate increase. Watch for rate and equity market reactions if data points to further labor or business cooling.
Macroeconomic data scheduled for the week of August 10 – 16, 2026 ET.
Top Stories
A quick look at the five stories that are set to shape next week's market sentiment. Explained with brief context highlighting why each story matters next week.
Source: NYT — DealBook
Jobs Report Poses New Test for Warsh and the Fed
The upcoming jobs report is critical as investors anticipate the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates as early as next month. This expectation follows recent economic indicators that suggest a shift in monetary policy could be on the horizon. The Fed's decisions will be influenced by labor market data, which remains a key focus for officials. The outcome of the report could significantly impact market sentiment and Fed strategy.
Source: MarketWatch — Top Stories
Some of the urgency is gone for a Fed rate hike in September after a soft jobs report
Following a weaker jobs report, the urgency for a Federal Reserve rate hike in September has diminished. However, the possibility of an increase remains, with upcoming inflation reports being closely monitored by Fed officials. These reports will play a crucial role in shaping future monetary policy decisions. The Fed's approach will depend on how inflation trends evolve in the coming weeks.
Source: MarketWatch — Top Stories
JPMorgan says Warsh failure to buttress Fed credibility may force a rate hike before year-end
JPMorgan's U.S. economics team has expressed concern over Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's recent press conference, labeling it the most troubling since 2012. This has led them to revise their expectations, now anticipating a rate hike before the end of the year. The bank's analysis suggests that the Fed's credibility may be at risk if decisive action is not taken soon. Market participants are closely watching these developments for potential impacts on interest rates.
Source: NYT — Economy
Weak Jobs Report Does Not Eliminate Prospects of Interest Rate Rise
Despite a weak jobs report, Federal Reserve officials maintain that the possibility of an interest rate increase is still on the table. Their primary concern remains the trajectory of inflation, which has consistently exceeded the central bank's 2 percent target over the past five years. The Fed's strategy will be influenced by how inflation trends develop in the near future. Officials are prepared to adjust monetary policy as necessary to address ongoing inflationary pressures.
Source: CNBC — Finance
Fed Governor Cook says she's 'prepared to act' on rate hike to address inflation
Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook indicated her readiness to support an interest rate hike if inflation does not improve. In a speech in Anchorage, she emphasized that inflation is currently too high, prioritizing inflation risks over employment concerns. Cook noted that while recent data showed some easing, it should not be overinterpreted. She highlighted the need for decisive action if inflation remains above target, especially given the potential for entrenched inflationary behavior.
Other Headlines
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Explore all past issues →The Market ThesisNext Week Outlook
United States Edition
August 9, 2026 at 9:00 AM ET
Markets Outlook for the week of August 10 – 16, 2026
CPI Data and Earnings to Influence Market Direction
Is the market ready for the week ahead?
The upcoming week will be crucial for market trends, driven primarily by inflation reports and earnings releases. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to show a year-over-year decline to 3.4% on August 10, down from 3.5% previously. In addition, Simon Property Group's earnings report on August 10 is forecasted to reveal an EPS of 3.18, slightly up from 3.17, as retail real estate faces challenges. Following a weak jobs report, lower inflation may ease concerns about aggressive interest rate hikes, creating a more positive outlook for equities. These factors combined could influence investor sentiment and positioning in the coming days.
Key Upcoming Events
Consumer Price Index Released
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is released on August 10. The forecast for CPI is 3.4%, down from 3.5% prior. This report is critical as it reflects inflation trends influencing Federal Reserve decisions on interest rates. A lower CPI can ease rate hike fears, signaling a potential shift in monetary policy. This may impact bond yields and equity valuations as investors reassess growth expectations.
Retail Sales Data Released
Retail Sales data is released on August 11. The forecast is a modest increase of 0.1%, down from 0.2% previously. This data is vital as consumer spending trends directly affect economic growth. Weak retail sales may indicate a slowdown, challenging the recovery narrative. Market sentiment could be negatively affected, especially in consumer-oriented sectors.
Earnings Report from Cisco
Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) reports earnings on August 12. The estimated EPS is 0.99, up from 0.90 previously. With the technology sector under pressure, Cisco's performance is an indicator of overall tech demand. A better-than-expected report could boost confidence in tech stocks. This could translate to a positive reaction in tech sector valuations and indices.
Earnings Report from Applied Materials
Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT) is set to release earnings on August 13. The estimate for EPS is 3.36, rising from 2.86 previously. Insights from this report are crucial as they can reveal trends in semiconductor equipment demand. Strong results could bolster sentiment in the tech manufacturing space. This might lead to upward price movements in the semiconductor sector.
Earnings Report from Simon Property Group
Simon Property Group, Inc. (SPG) will report on August 10. The EPS estimate is 3.18, slightly up from 3.17 prior. Given recent consumer spending data, performance in retail real estate is under scrutiny. Insights into occupancy and rental income could indicate broader sector strength or weakness. This may influence market perspectives on related real estate equities.
Seasonality
A brief look at the strongest seasonal patterns for the week ahead. These patterns highlight date ranges where this asset has historically shown consistent moves.
Stocks & ETFs
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Sample period varies by company from 7 to 10 years of historical data.
Commodities & Crypto
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Sample period varies by company from 7 to 10 years of historical data.
Key Financial Reports
Applied Materials (AMAT) leads the week with an upbeat earnings estimate and a history of sharp stock moves-the last report triggered a -3.38% reaction. Cisco (CSCO) also reports, aiming for a slight profit lift after a quieter market response last quarter. Simon Property Group (SPG) posts steady results, with no significant surprises in recent releases. This group of reports will offer a clear read on tech hardware and retail property trends, but market-moving shocks look most likely from AMAT.
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
Detailed View →Reaction
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EPS scheduled for the week of August 10 – 16, 2026 ET.
Key Macroeconomic Reports
Key data this week centers on the NFIB Business Optimism Index and ADP employment reports. The NFIB is forecast at 97.8, a slight pick-up from 97.4 last month, but still below its 4Q average of 98.48. This suggests small business sentiment remains muted, which could weigh on hiring or capex plans. The recent ADP Employment Change was 15,000, down from its 4Q average of 17,750, reinforcing signs of slower job growth after soft payroll data. If business and labor indicators stay subdued, markets may see less pressure for another Fed rate increase. Watch for rate and equity market reactions if data points to further labor or business cooling.
Macroeconomic Data
Detailed View →Macroeconomic data scheduled for the week of August 10 – 16, 2026 ET.
Top Stories
A quick look at the five stories that are set to shape next week's market sentiment. Explained with brief context highlighting why each story matters next week.
Jobs Report Poses New Test for Warsh and the Fed
The upcoming jobs report is critical as investors anticipate the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates as early as next month. This expectation follows recent economic indicators that suggest a shift in monetary policy could be on the horizon. The Fed's decisions will be influenced by labor market data, which remains a key focus for officials. The outcome of the report could significantly impact market sentiment and Fed strategy.
Source: NYT — DealBook
Some of the urgency is gone for a Fed rate hike in September after a soft jobs report
Following a weaker jobs report, the urgency for a Federal Reserve rate hike in September has diminished. However, the possibility of an increase remains, with upcoming inflation reports being closely monitored by Fed officials. These reports will play a crucial role in shaping future monetary policy decisions. The Fed's approach will depend on how inflation trends evolve in the coming weeks.
Source: MarketWatch — Top Stories
JPMorgan says Warsh failure to buttress Fed credibility may force a rate hike before year-end
JPMorgan's U.S. economics team has expressed concern over Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's recent press conference, labeling it the most troubling since 2012. This has led them to revise their expectations, now anticipating a rate hike before the end of the year. The bank's analysis suggests that the Fed's credibility may be at risk if decisive action is not taken soon. Market participants are closely watching these developments for potential impacts on interest rates.
Source: MarketWatch — Top Stories
Weak Jobs Report Does Not Eliminate Prospects of Interest Rate Rise
Despite a weak jobs report, Federal Reserve officials maintain that the possibility of an interest rate increase is still on the table. Their primary concern remains the trajectory of inflation, which has consistently exceeded the central bank's 2 percent target over the past five years. The Fed's strategy will be influenced by how inflation trends develop in the near future. Officials are prepared to adjust monetary policy as necessary to address ongoing inflationary pressures.
Source: NYT — Economy
Fed Governor Cook says she's 'prepared to act' on rate hike to address inflation
Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook indicated her readiness to support an interest rate hike if inflation does not improve. In a speech in Anchorage, she emphasized that inflation is currently too high, prioritizing inflation risks over employment concerns. Cook noted that while recent data showed some easing, it should not be overinterpreted. She highlighted the need for decisive action if inflation remains above target, especially given the potential for entrenched inflationary behavior.
Source: CNBC — Finance
Other Headlines
As Warsh and the Fed contemplate fewer meetings, markets brace for potential volatility ahead
U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23,000 jobs in July
Kalshi traders think July jobs report will come in slightly cooler than economists’ predictions
Here are three key takeaways from the disappointing July jobs report
Job openings fell to a 3-month low. Is the labor market losing momentum?
Next big push in ETF industry? Why these risk assets are gaining traction as interest rate uncertainty persists
Private companies added just 44,000 workers in July, below expectations, ADP reports
Why tech stocks are likely to take a back seat for the rest of 2026, according to JPMorgan strategists
The Bond Market Is Signaling Rising Risks. Investors Should Listen.
Enjoying The Market Thesis? Get more news and analysis with our regional editions for Asia & Pacific and Europe & UK.
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