The Market ThesisNext Week Outlook
United States Edition
August 16, 2026 at 9:00 AM ET
By MacroGlide's Analysts
Markets Outlook for the week of August 17 – 23, 2026
Retail Sales Drop and Housing Data Will Shape Markets
Is the market ready for the week ahead?
Next week, U.S. markets will focus on critical retail sales and housing data. Retail sales fell 1.5% in July, marking the largest drop in over a year, driven by lower gas prices and a post-Amazon slowdown. On August 17, the expected Building Permits and Housing Starts figures are 1.37M and 1.35M, respectively, reflecting builder confidence. Additionally, the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index is projected to decline to 10.2 from 15.6. These trends will likely impact market confidence in consumer spending and housing resilience, which are vital amid inflationary pressures.
Key Upcoming Events
Housing Starts Data Released
Housing Starts data is released on August 17. Forecast is 1.35M versus previous 1.43M. This report is significant as it reflects the level of new residential construction, key for understanding housing demand amidst current economic conditions. A decrease signals possible challenges in housing supply, important as inflation persists. This statistic directly influences housing sector performance and related investments.
Building Permits Report Released
Building Permits data is released on August 17. The forecast is 1.37M compared to a previous reading of 1.374M. This data can help gauge builder confidence in the market, particularly after recent retail sales drops. A decline in permits may indicate anticipated future reductions in construction activity and economic growth. This information is crucial for the housing sector, impacting market sentiment.
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index Released
The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index is released on August 17. The forecast is 10.2, down from a previous 15.6. This index provides insights into manufacturing activity, tracking economic health in New York. A lower reading signals potential weakness in manufacturing, which could extend beyond the region, reflecting broader economic trends. This metric could affect investor views on cyclical stocks linked to manufacturing.
Walmart Earnings Report Released
Walmart (WMT) earnings report is on August 20. The estimated EPS is 0.73 compared to 0.66 prior. Given recent trends in retail sales, this report will offer insights into consumer spending behavior. Strong earnings could bolster confidence in the retail sector during economic challenges. The stock might react significantly based on performance relative to expectations, affecting retail market dynamics.
Home Depot Earnings Report Released
Home Depot (HD) earnings report is on August 18. The estimated EPS is 4.71, up from 3.43 previously. This report is critical to assess resilience in the home improvement sector amidst economic pressures. Results could reveal consumer spending patterns on home projects during inflationary times. Positive performance may influence investor sentiment in retail and home improvement sectors.
Seasonality
A brief look at the strongest seasonal patterns for the week ahead. These patterns highlight date ranges where this asset has historically shown consistent moves.
Sample period varies by company from 7 to 10 years of historical data.
Sample period varies by company from 7 to 10 years of historical data.
Key Financial Reports
Walmart Inc. (WMT) is expected to deliver another solid report, with its last earnings release sparking a 6.46% share price jump. The Home Depot, Inc. (HD) faces a high bar as estimates climb to 4.71 EPS, but retail sales have weakened and last quarter's market reaction was subdued. Deere & Company (DE), coming off an 11.58% price surge after previous results, now faces a sharp year-over-year EPS decline, highlighting pressure in the equipment market. These reports will offer a first read on how consumer and industrial demand trends are holding up as the quarter begins.
EPS scheduled for the week of August 17 – 23, 2026 ET.
Key Macroeconomic Reports
The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index is expected at 10.2, down from 15.6 last month but stronger than the -1.77 average over the past year. This signals manufacturing is losing some momentum but remains well above recent trends, which may keep pressure off rate cuts in the near term. The NAHB Housing Market Index is forecast at 33, just below the prior 34 and below the 4Q average of 36, reinforcing ongoing weakness in homebuilder sentiment as higher rates weigh on housing activity. Investors will also watch the 3-month and 6-month Bill Auctions, with last readings of 3.735 and 3.83, to gauge demand for short-term Treasuries and market views on future Fed moves. These data points will shape expectations for US growth and policy, especially in sectors sensitive to interest rates.
Macroeconomic data scheduled for the week of August 17 – 23, 2026 ET.
Top Stories
A quick look at the five stories that are set to shape next week's market sentiment. Explained with brief context highlighting why each story matters next week.
Source: MarketWatch — Top Stories
Is inflation really slowing? Fed rate hike hinges on July price report.
The Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates may depend on the July inflation report, following a surprising drop in U.S. jobs last month. While the job decline is notable, a consistent inflation report could influence the Fed's next steps. The central bank is considering raising rates, but a tame inflation reading could lead to a pause in rate hikes. The upcoming report will be critical in shaping the Fed's policy direction.
Source: MarketWatch — Top Stories
Wholesale prices flatten out in July and inflation eases. A Fed rate hike is in doubt.
Wholesale prices in July showed little change, indicating a potential easing of inflation. This stability in prices may lead the Federal Reserve to reconsider raising borrowing costs. The latest data suggests that inflation pressures are not as strong, which could impact the Fed's monetary policy decisions in the near future. Investors are closely monitoring these developments for signs of future rate adjustments.
Source: CNBC — Economy
An inflation report Wednesday should be a big deal for the Fed. Here's what to expect
The upcoming inflation report on Wednesday is expected to show a modest increase of 0.1% in the consumer price index for July, with a core reading of 0.2%. Year-over-year, these figures are projected at 3.4% and 2.5%, respectively. These numbers, if accurate, could provide the Federal Reserve with some leeway in its inflation management strategy. The Fed's next meeting will take place after the July and August data are released, influencing their decision on interest rates.
Source: MarketWatch — Top Stories
U.S. stock futures flat as investors await inflation data, grapple with more Iran uncertainty
U.S. stock-index futures remained mostly unchanged as investors await crucial inflation data. Concerns over new demands from Iran have added uncertainty regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Market participants are closely watching these developments, as they could impact economic conditions and investor sentiment. The upcoming inflation report will be a key focus for traders in the coming days.
Source: MarketWatch — Top Stories
Applied Materials shares are down on guidance and margin concerns. Analysts call it time to buy.
Shares of Applied Materials have declined due to concerns over guidance and profit margins. Despite this downturn, analysts believe the semiconductor company will continue to grow, driven by increasing demand in the artificial intelligence sector. The current market conditions present a potential buying opportunity for investors. Analysts are optimistic about the company's future prospects amid the ongoing AI race.
Other Headlines
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Explore all past issues →The Market ThesisNext Week Outlook
United States Edition
August 16, 2026 at 9:00 AM ET
Markets Outlook for the week of August 17 – 23, 2026
Retail Sales Drop and Housing Data Will Shape Markets
Is the market ready for the week ahead?
Next week, U.S. markets will focus on critical retail sales and housing data. Retail sales fell 1.5% in July, marking the largest drop in over a year, driven by lower gas prices and a post-Amazon slowdown. On August 17, the expected Building Permits and Housing Starts figures are 1.37M and 1.35M, respectively, reflecting builder confidence. Additionally, the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index is projected to decline to 10.2 from 15.6. These trends will likely impact market confidence in consumer spending and housing resilience, which are vital amid inflationary pressures.
Key Upcoming Events
Housing Starts Data Released
Housing Starts data is released on August 17. Forecast is 1.35M versus previous 1.43M. This report is significant as it reflects the level of new residential construction, key for understanding housing demand amidst current economic conditions. A decrease signals possible challenges in housing supply, important as inflation persists. This statistic directly influences housing sector performance and related investments.
Building Permits Report Released
Building Permits data is released on August 17. The forecast is 1.37M compared to a previous reading of 1.374M. This data can help gauge builder confidence in the market, particularly after recent retail sales drops. A decline in permits may indicate anticipated future reductions in construction activity and economic growth. This information is crucial for the housing sector, impacting market sentiment.
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index Released
The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index is released on August 17. The forecast is 10.2, down from a previous 15.6. This index provides insights into manufacturing activity, tracking economic health in New York. A lower reading signals potential weakness in manufacturing, which could extend beyond the region, reflecting broader economic trends. This metric could affect investor views on cyclical stocks linked to manufacturing.
Walmart Earnings Report Released
Walmart (WMT) earnings report is on August 20. The estimated EPS is 0.73 compared to 0.66 prior. Given recent trends in retail sales, this report will offer insights into consumer spending behavior. Strong earnings could bolster confidence in the retail sector during economic challenges. The stock might react significantly based on performance relative to expectations, affecting retail market dynamics.
Home Depot Earnings Report Released
Home Depot (HD) earnings report is on August 18. The estimated EPS is 4.71, up from 3.43 previously. This report is critical to assess resilience in the home improvement sector amidst economic pressures. Results could reveal consumer spending patterns on home projects during inflationary times. Positive performance may influence investor sentiment in retail and home improvement sectors.
Seasonality
A brief look at the strongest seasonal patterns for the week ahead. These patterns highlight date ranges where this asset has historically shown consistent moves.
Stocks & ETFs
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Sample period varies by company from 7 to 10 years of historical data.
Commodities & Crypto
Detailed View →Return
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Sample period varies by company from 7 to 10 years of historical data.
Key Financial Reports
Walmart Inc. (WMT) is expected to deliver another solid report, with its last earnings release sparking a 6.46% share price jump. The Home Depot, Inc. (HD) faces a high bar as estimates climb to 4.71 EPS, but retail sales have weakened and last quarter's market reaction was subdued. Deere & Company (DE), coming off an 11.58% price surge after previous results, now faces a sharp year-over-year EPS decline, highlighting pressure in the equipment market. These reports will offer a first read on how consumer and industrial demand trends are holding up as the quarter begins.
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
Detailed View →Reaction
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EPS scheduled for the week of August 17 – 23, 2026 ET.
Key Macroeconomic Reports
The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index is expected at 10.2, down from 15.6 last month but stronger than the -1.77 average over the past year. This signals manufacturing is losing some momentum but remains well above recent trends, which may keep pressure off rate cuts in the near term. The NAHB Housing Market Index is forecast at 33, just below the prior 34 and below the 4Q average of 36, reinforcing ongoing weakness in homebuilder sentiment as higher rates weigh on housing activity. Investors will also watch the 3-month and 6-month Bill Auctions, with last readings of 3.735 and 3.83, to gauge demand for short-term Treasuries and market views on future Fed moves. These data points will shape expectations for US growth and policy, especially in sectors sensitive to interest rates.
Macroeconomic Data
Detailed View →Macroeconomic data scheduled for the week of August 17 – 23, 2026 ET.
Top Stories
A quick look at the five stories that are set to shape next week's market sentiment. Explained with brief context highlighting why each story matters next week.
Is inflation really slowing? Fed rate hike hinges on July price report.
The Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates may depend on the July inflation report, following a surprising drop in U.S. jobs last month. While the job decline is notable, a consistent inflation report could influence the Fed's next steps. The central bank is considering raising rates, but a tame inflation reading could lead to a pause in rate hikes. The upcoming report will be critical in shaping the Fed's policy direction.
Source: MarketWatch — Top Stories
Wholesale prices flatten out in July and inflation eases. A Fed rate hike is in doubt.
Wholesale prices in July showed little change, indicating a potential easing of inflation. This stability in prices may lead the Federal Reserve to reconsider raising borrowing costs. The latest data suggests that inflation pressures are not as strong, which could impact the Fed's monetary policy decisions in the near future. Investors are closely monitoring these developments for signs of future rate adjustments.
Source: MarketWatch — Top Stories
An inflation report Wednesday should be a big deal for the Fed. Here's what to expect
The upcoming inflation report on Wednesday is expected to show a modest increase of 0.1% in the consumer price index for July, with a core reading of 0.2%. Year-over-year, these figures are projected at 3.4% and 2.5%, respectively. These numbers, if accurate, could provide the Federal Reserve with some leeway in its inflation management strategy. The Fed's next meeting will take place after the July and August data are released, influencing their decision on interest rates.
Source: CNBC — Economy
U.S. stock futures flat as investors await inflation data, grapple with more Iran uncertainty
U.S. stock-index futures remained mostly unchanged as investors await crucial inflation data. Concerns over new demands from Iran have added uncertainty regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Market participants are closely watching these developments, as they could impact economic conditions and investor sentiment. The upcoming inflation report will be a key focus for traders in the coming days.
Source: MarketWatch — Top Stories
Applied Materials shares are down on guidance and margin concerns. Analysts call it time to buy.
Shares of Applied Materials have declined due to concerns over guidance and profit margins. Despite this downturn, analysts believe the semiconductor company will continue to grow, driven by increasing demand in the artificial intelligence sector. The current market conditions present a potential buying opportunity for investors. Analysts are optimistic about the company's future prospects amid the ongoing AI race.
Source: MarketWatch — Top Stories
Other Headlines
Wall Street’s biggest bank just raised its expectations for the stock market
Wholesale prices were flat in July, below expectations for 0.2% increase
Retail sales slump. Cheaper gas and an Amazon Prime hangover are the chief culprits.
July Retail Sales Notch Biggest Drop in Over a Year
Regulators and banks step up scrutiny of prediction markets
Lenovo profits soar past expectations on AI computers, servers and services
Here are five key takeaways from the July CPI inflation report
Prediction Firms Are Flagging Insider Traders. Many Will Not Face Charges.
New York City Council announces probe into prediction market platforms’ marketing strategies
July CPI Report Is Expected to Show Falling Energy Prices
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