The Market ThesisDaily Summary
United States Edition
October 29, 2026 at 5:30 AM ET
By MacroGlide's Analysts
Markets Recap for October 28, 2026
Fed Maintains Interest Rates Amid Inflation Concerns
What's in the markets today?
The Federal Reserve held its policy rate at 4, reiterating its focus on inflation and confirming that no policy shift was warranted as US growth showed no signs of overheating. S&P 500 and major US indexes climbed, helped by a 0.6 increase in wholesale inventories for September, which signaled business restocking is supporting supply chains and future production. WTI crude oil rallied 2.88% after EIA data showed US gasoline stocks jumped by 3.87 million barrels, highlighting an ongoing supply build and shifting dynamics in the energy market. Microsoft, Alphabet, ServiceNow, Boston Scientific, and T-Mobile all reported quarterly results after the close, with ServiceNow posting $1 in earnings per share that missed expectations despite the sector's otherwise steady performance. Gold and silver prices retreated, as clarity from the Fed and robust macro readings prompted traders to adjust their exposures across key commodity and rate segments.
Benchmark Moves
The S&P 500 climbed 0.28% to 7,743.98 after the Fed held its policy rate at 4%. WTI crude oil rose 2.88% to $102.78, reflecting a renewed focus on energy input costs for US companies. The move in oil prices creates potential pressure on profit margins if energy stays elevated. This combination of stable rates and rising commodity costs reprices risk across assets.
Market data as of Oct 28, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET.
Market data as of Oct 28, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET.
Market data as of Oct 28, 2026 at 5:00 PM ET.
Key Financial Reports
US corporate earnings leaned to the upside, with most large caps reporting strong execution and improved guidance. T-Mobile (TMUS) delivered $3.22 in EPS, led by high revenue and subscriber growth, and raised full-year targets after industry-leading gains in broadband, ARPA, and EBITDA. ServiceNow (NOW) reported $1.00 EPS and topped guidance on revenue, margin, and free cash flow, with management also raising full-year subscription revenue and margin guidance. This batch indicates that secular demand in telecom and digital transformation continues to lift sector-level outlooks.
EPS reported on October 28, 2026 ET. Figures use each company's reported basis.
Key Macroeconomic Reports
The U.S. economy shows mixed signals as inventory data points to steady restocking. Building permits fell by 0.4%, while wholesale inventories rose by 0.6%, suggesting uneven demand. The increase in inventories points to steady restocking activity. This dynamic may influence future Fed policy discussions and market pricing strategies.
Macroeconomic data released on October 28, 2026 ET.
Top Stories
A quick look at the five stories that shaped today's market sentiment. Explained with brief context highlighting why each story mattered today.
Source: NYT — Economy
Fed Holds Rates Steady Despite Lack of Progress on Inflation
The Federal Reserve, led by Chairman Kevin M. Warsh, has decided to keep interest rates steady as officials await more information before their December meeting. Warsh described the current period as 'information-rich,' suggesting that upcoming data will influence future policy decisions. This decision comes amid ongoing concerns about inflation and economic stability, with the Fed's approach indicating a preference for patience in navigating the current economic landscape.
Source: CNBC — Economy
The UK cuts energy bills, taxes banks and boosts defense in high-stakes budget
U.K. finance minister John Healey presented his first fiscal budget, introducing measures to ease cost-of-living pressures while maintaining market confidence. Key initiatives include removing standing charges on household gas heating bills and extending a tax break on electricity through July 2027, costing £2.6 billion. The budget also allocates £15 million for children's books and support for first-time homebuyers. Healey emphasized the need for 'radical change on energy' and announced tax increases on banks to fund these measures.
Source: NYT — DealBook
Investors Brace for Big Tech’s A.I. Spending Bill
Investors are preparing for significant spending announcements from major tech companies focused on artificial intelligence, including Google and Microsoft. As earnings reports approach, tech stocks have shown signs of recovery. The market is particularly attentive to how these companies will allocate resources towards AI advancements, which could influence their future growth and profitability.
Source: NYT — Business
The Federal Reserve Will Release Its Interest Rate Decision Today. Here’s What to Watch.
The Federal Reserve is expected to announce its interest rate decision today, with analysts predicting that rates will remain unchanged. This decision comes just days before the midterm elections, highlighting the Fed's cautious approach amid economic uncertainties. Market participants are closely monitoring the central bank's communications for any hints regarding future monetary policy adjustments.
Source: CNBC — Economy
Here are five key takeaways from the Fed rate decision and Warsh news conference
Following the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain its benchmark interest rate, Chairman Kevin Warsh shared insights on the current economic climate during a press conference. Analysts noted that the Fed is taking a patient stance, preferring to gather more information before making further rate adjustments. Despite the steady rate, there are signs of a tightening bias, with expectations for a potential hike in December. Warsh's communication style has led to mixed interpretations among market participants regarding the Fed's future direction.
Other Headlines
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Explore all past issues →The Market ThesisDaily Summary
United States Edition
October 29, 2026 at 5:30 AM ET
Markets Recap for October 28, 2026
Fed Maintains Interest Rates Amid Inflation Concerns
What's in the markets today?
The Federal Reserve held its policy rate at 4, reiterating its focus on inflation and confirming that no policy shift was warranted as US growth showed no signs of overheating. S&P 500 and major US indexes climbed, helped by a 0.6 increase in wholesale inventories for September, which signaled business restocking is supporting supply chains and future production. WTI crude oil rallied 2.88% after EIA data showed US gasoline stocks jumped by 3.87 million barrels, highlighting an ongoing supply build and shifting dynamics in the energy market. Microsoft, Alphabet, ServiceNow, Boston Scientific, and T-Mobile all reported quarterly results after the close, with ServiceNow posting $1 in earnings per share that missed expectations despite the sector's otherwise steady performance. Gold and silver prices retreated, as clarity from the Fed and robust macro readings prompted traders to adjust their exposures across key commodity and rate segments.
Benchmark Moves
The S&P 500 climbed 0.28% to 7,743.98 after the Fed held its policy rate at 4%. WTI crude oil rose 2.88% to $102.78, reflecting a renewed focus on energy input costs for US companies. The move in oil prices creates potential pressure on profit margins if energy stays elevated. This combination of stable rates and rising commodity costs reprices risk across assets.
Indexes
Detailed View →Market data as of Oct 28, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET.
Stocks
Detailed View →Market data as of Oct 28, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET.
Commodities & Crypto
Detailed View →Market data as of Oct 28, 2026 at 5:00 PM ET.
Key Financial Reports
US corporate earnings leaned to the upside, with most large caps reporting strong execution and improved guidance. T-Mobile (TMUS) delivered $3.22 in EPS, led by high revenue and subscriber growth, and raised full-year targets after industry-leading gains in broadband, ARPA, and EBITDA. ServiceNow (NOW) reported $1.00 EPS and topped guidance on revenue, margin, and free cash flow, with management also raising full-year subscription revenue and margin guidance. This batch indicates that secular demand in telecom and digital transformation continues to lift sector-level outlooks.
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
Detailed View →EPS reported on October 28, 2026 ET. Figures use each company's reported basis.
Key Macroeconomic Reports
The U.S. economy shows mixed signals as inventory data points to steady restocking. Building permits fell by 0.4%, while wholesale inventories rose by 0.6%, suggesting uneven demand. The increase in inventories points to steady restocking activity. This dynamic may influence future Fed policy discussions and market pricing strategies.
Macroeconomic Data
Detailed View →Macroeconomic data released on October 28, 2026 ET.
Top Stories
A quick look at the five stories that shaped today's market sentiment. Explained with brief context highlighting why each story mattered today.
Fed Holds Rates Steady Despite Lack of Progress on Inflation
The Federal Reserve, led by Chairman Kevin M. Warsh, has decided to keep interest rates steady as officials await more information before their December meeting. Warsh described the current period as 'information-rich,' suggesting that upcoming data will influence future policy decisions. This decision comes amid ongoing concerns about inflation and economic stability, with the Fed's approach indicating a preference for patience in navigating the current economic landscape.
Source: NYT — Economy
The UK cuts energy bills, taxes banks and boosts defense in high-stakes budget
U.K. finance minister John Healey presented his first fiscal budget, introducing measures to ease cost-of-living pressures while maintaining market confidence. Key initiatives include removing standing charges on household gas heating bills and extending a tax break on electricity through July 2027, costing £2.6 billion. The budget also allocates £15 million for children's books and support for first-time homebuyers. Healey emphasized the need for 'radical change on energy' and announced tax increases on banks to fund these measures.
Source: CNBC — Economy
Investors Brace for Big Tech’s A.I. Spending Bill
Investors are preparing for significant spending announcements from major tech companies focused on artificial intelligence, including Google and Microsoft. As earnings reports approach, tech stocks have shown signs of recovery. The market is particularly attentive to how these companies will allocate resources towards AI advancements, which could influence their future growth and profitability.
Source: NYT — DealBook
The Federal Reserve Will Release Its Interest Rate Decision Today. Here’s What to Watch.
The Federal Reserve is expected to announce its interest rate decision today, with analysts predicting that rates will remain unchanged. This decision comes just days before the midterm elections, highlighting the Fed's cautious approach amid economic uncertainties. Market participants are closely monitoring the central bank's communications for any hints regarding future monetary policy adjustments.
Source: NYT — Business
Here are five key takeaways from the Fed rate decision and Warsh news conference
Following the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain its benchmark interest rate, Chairman Kevin Warsh shared insights on the current economic climate during a press conference. Analysts noted that the Fed is taking a patient stance, preferring to gather more information before making further rate adjustments. Despite the steady rate, there are signs of a tightening bias, with expectations for a potential hike in December. Warsh's communication style has led to mixed interpretations among market participants regarding the Fed's future direction.
Source: CNBC — Economy
Other Headlines
Why did the Fed hold off on raising interest rates? Warsh says it’s because an ‘information-rich’ period is coming.
How the Fed’s Interest Rate Decision Affects Credit Cards, Loans and More
These software stocks could be winners as earnings season kicks into high gear
A Punishing Housing Market Is Squeezing Renters
11 bargain-priced stocks of companies that have huge growth potential over the next two years
Fed Will Hold Fewer Rate-Setting Meetings Starting Next Year
U.S. Restricts Trade With Chinese Genomics Company
Fed holds interest rates steady in last decision before midterms
Who Stands to Gain From an Anthropic I.P.O.
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