The Market ThesisDaily Summary
United States Edition
August 13, 2026 at 5:30 AM ET
By MacroGlide's Analysts
Markets Recap for August 12, 2026
U.S. Inflation Holds Steady as Earnings Disappoint
What's in the markets today?
U.S. inflation data released Tuesday showed the annual rate holding firm at 3.4%, matching its previous reading and signaling price growth remains contained for now. Cisco Systems posted weaker results with an EPS of 0.81, falling short of estimates and highlighting pressure on legacy tech hardware makers. Coherent also reported a steep earnings miss, pointing to continued softness in industrial technology demand. The S&P 500 rose 0.26% as the latest macro and earnings data kept overall equity benchmarks on a tight trajectory. Meanwhile, WTI crude oil fell 1.42% on the day, bringing some relief on the input cost front for energy-dependent sectors.
Benchmark Moves
The S&P 500 rose 0.26% as US inflation data came in steady, keeping rate expectations in check and supporting equities. WTI crude oil fell 1.42%, with no clear new catalyst for the move based on the available data. Stable energy prices help shield US corporate margins, reinforcing the positive effect of muted inflation on stocks this week.
Market data as of Aug 12, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET.
Market data as of Aug 12, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET.
Market data as of Aug 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM ET.
Key Financial Reports
Earnings skewed toward misses, driven by weakness in tech and industrials. Cisco Systems (CSCO) delivered EPS of 0.81 versus the 0.99 estimate-a miss driven by a drop in enterprise network equipment sales and lower product margins as management cited sluggish IT spending. Coherent (COHR) posted 0.74 versus a 1.43 consensus, with revenue hit hard by a slowdown in semiconductor and industrial laser demand and gross margin falling sharply from last year. This pattern of margin pressure and soft demand across key business segments points to persistent earnings headwinds for U.S. technology and industrial suppliers, raising the risk of downward revisions for both sectors this quarter.
EPS reported on August 12, 2026 ET. Figures use each company's reported basis.
Key Macroeconomic Reports
U.S. inflation signals stabilization, with headline CPI holding at 3.4% and core inflation steady at 2.5%. The near-flat movement in both headline and core readings shows that while price pressures persist, they are not accelerating. This alignment points to a regime of stable but elevated inflation, reducing expectations for imminent shifts in Federal Reserve policy. Markets will likely remain sensitive to any signs of renewed price momentum in upcoming reports.
Macroeconomic data released on August 12, 2026 ET.
Top Stories
A quick look at the five stories that shaped today's market sentiment. Explained with brief context highlighting why each story mattered today.
Source: MarketWatch — Top Stories
The $30 trillion Treasury market is facing a painful reckoning. How rising yields could squeeze your portfolio.
The $30 trillion Treasury market is facing significant challenges due to rising risks. This market is considered a cornerstone of the global financial system. The current situation could lead to negative impacts on investment portfolios as yields continue to rise. Investors are closely monitoring these developments as they could signal broader economic implications.
Source: CNBC — Economy
U.S. budget deficit surged in July to highest level since March 2021
The U.S. budget deficit reached $432.3 billion in July, marking the highest monthly level since March 2021. This figure represents a 48% increase from the same month last year. Over the first ten months of the fiscal year, the total deficit has risen to nearly $1.8 trillion. Key contributors to this surge include rising Medicare costs, which totaled $174 billion in July, and significant interest payments on the national debt.
Source: MarketWatch — Top Stories
CoreWeave’s stock soars as earnings show major AI momentum
CoreWeave's stock has surged following strong earnings that exceeded expectations, signaling robust momentum in the AI sector. The company's CEO highlighted this performance as an important turning point for the business. Investors are reacting positively to the growth prospects in the AI cloud market. This development reflects increasing confidence in the company's future.
Source: MarketWatch — Top Stories
Alphabet’s stock slips as Nvidia’s $500 billion financing deal threatens custom chips
Alphabet's stock has declined amid concerns over Nvidia's $500 billion financing deal, which could impact the development of custom chips. Investors are wary that this move may pose a competitive threat to Alphabet's position in the AI market. The financing plan, which involves major Wall Street players, raises questions about future collaborations and market dynamics. This situation has led to increased scrutiny of Alphabet's strategic direction.
Source: NYT — Economy
Inflation Eased Slightly in July, but Prices Remain Elevated as War Drags On
Inflation showed slight easing in July, although prices remain high due to ongoing geopolitical tensions. Energy prices fell after a surge in the spring, but other costs have continued to rise. The Federal Reserve is weighing the possibility of raising interest rates in response to these inflationary pressures. The overall economic outlook remains uncertain as various factors influence price stability.
Other Headlines
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Explore all past issues →The Market ThesisDaily Summary
United States Edition
August 13, 2026 at 5:30 AM ET
Markets Recap for August 12, 2026
U.S. Inflation Holds Steady as Earnings Disappoint
What's in the markets today?
U.S. inflation data released Tuesday showed the annual rate holding firm at 3.4%, matching its previous reading and signaling price growth remains contained for now. Cisco Systems posted weaker results with an EPS of 0.81, falling short of estimates and highlighting pressure on legacy tech hardware makers. Coherent also reported a steep earnings miss, pointing to continued softness in industrial technology demand. The S&P 500 rose 0.26% as the latest macro and earnings data kept overall equity benchmarks on a tight trajectory. Meanwhile, WTI crude oil fell 1.42% on the day, bringing some relief on the input cost front for energy-dependent sectors.
Benchmark Moves
The S&P 500 rose 0.26% as US inflation data came in steady, keeping rate expectations in check and supporting equities. WTI crude oil fell 1.42%, with no clear new catalyst for the move based on the available data. Stable energy prices help shield US corporate margins, reinforcing the positive effect of muted inflation on stocks this week.
Indexes
Detailed View →Market data as of Aug 12, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET.
Stocks
Detailed View →Market data as of Aug 12, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET.
Commodities & Crypto
Detailed View →Market data as of Aug 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM ET.
Key Financial Reports
Earnings skewed toward misses, driven by weakness in tech and industrials. Cisco Systems (CSCO) delivered EPS of 0.81 versus the 0.99 estimate-a miss driven by a drop in enterprise network equipment sales and lower product margins as management cited sluggish IT spending. Coherent (COHR) posted 0.74 versus a 1.43 consensus, with revenue hit hard by a slowdown in semiconductor and industrial laser demand and gross margin falling sharply from last year. This pattern of margin pressure and soft demand across key business segments points to persistent earnings headwinds for U.S. technology and industrial suppliers, raising the risk of downward revisions for both sectors this quarter.
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
Detailed View →EPS reported on August 12, 2026 ET. Figures use each company's reported basis.
Key Macroeconomic Reports
U.S. inflation signals stabilization, with headline CPI holding at 3.4% and core inflation steady at 2.5%. The near-flat movement in both headline and core readings shows that while price pressures persist, they are not accelerating. This alignment points to a regime of stable but elevated inflation, reducing expectations for imminent shifts in Federal Reserve policy. Markets will likely remain sensitive to any signs of renewed price momentum in upcoming reports.
Macroeconomic Data
Detailed View →Macroeconomic data released on August 12, 2026 ET.
Top Stories
A quick look at the five stories that shaped today's market sentiment. Explained with brief context highlighting why each story mattered today.
The $30 trillion Treasury market is facing a painful reckoning. How rising yields could squeeze your portfolio.
The $30 trillion Treasury market is facing significant challenges due to rising risks. This market is considered a cornerstone of the global financial system. The current situation could lead to negative impacts on investment portfolios as yields continue to rise. Investors are closely monitoring these developments as they could signal broader economic implications.
Source: MarketWatch — Top Stories
U.S. budget deficit surged in July to highest level since March 2021
The U.S. budget deficit reached $432.3 billion in July, marking the highest monthly level since March 2021. This figure represents a 48% increase from the same month last year. Over the first ten months of the fiscal year, the total deficit has risen to nearly $1.8 trillion. Key contributors to this surge include rising Medicare costs, which totaled $174 billion in July, and significant interest payments on the national debt.
Source: CNBC — Economy
CoreWeave’s stock soars as earnings show major AI momentum
CoreWeave's stock has surged following strong earnings that exceeded expectations, signaling robust momentum in the AI sector. The company's CEO highlighted this performance as an important turning point for the business. Investors are reacting positively to the growth prospects in the AI cloud market. This development reflects increasing confidence in the company's future.
Source: MarketWatch — Top Stories
Alphabet’s stock slips as Nvidia’s $500 billion financing deal threatens custom chips
Alphabet's stock has declined amid concerns over Nvidia's $500 billion financing deal, which could impact the development of custom chips. Investors are wary that this move may pose a competitive threat to Alphabet's position in the AI market. The financing plan, which involves major Wall Street players, raises questions about future collaborations and market dynamics. This situation has led to increased scrutiny of Alphabet's strategic direction.
Source: MarketWatch — Top Stories
Inflation Eased Slightly in July, but Prices Remain Elevated as War Drags On
Inflation showed slight easing in July, although prices remain high due to ongoing geopolitical tensions. Energy prices fell after a surge in the spring, but other costs have continued to rise. The Federal Reserve is weighing the possibility of raising interest rates in response to these inflationary pressures. The overall economic outlook remains uncertain as various factors influence price stability.
Source: NYT — Economy
Other Headlines
Social Security recipients will get more money next year. Here’s how much the COLA may boost benefits.
Consumer prices rose 0.1% in July, as expected, putting the annual rate at 3.4%
Gulf Oil Giants Are Spending Billions to Build Ways Around Strait of Hormuz
Super Micro’s earnings report brings more good news, and the stock is climbing
Here are five key takeaways from the July CPI inflation report
Consumer Debt Data Shows ‘Overall’ Health Amid Persisting Divides
Benign Inflation Data Offers Reprieve to Fed as It Weighs Rate Increase
SpaceX short sellers are running out of bullets as stock rebounds more than 40% off low
US inflation cooled slightly to 3.4% in July but prices still elevated
Will Paramount’s Brinkmanship Work?
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