The Market ThesisDaily Summary
United States Edition
November 4, 2026 at 5:30 AM ET
By MacroGlide's Analysts
Markets Recap for November 3, 2026
US Stocks Mixed as Midterm Elections Approach
What's in the markets today?
US factory orders rose by 1.8%, providing a signal that manufacturing demand improved ahead of the midterm elections and reinforcing the view that industrial activity is gaining momentum this quarter. The S&P 500 advanced modestly as investors tracked expectations for Democratic gains in the congressional vote, spurring positioning shifts tied to possible fiscal and regulatory policy changes. Apple shares dropped after the company reported results showing slower revenue growth, prompting scrutiny of future demand for its main product lines and weighing on the broader technology sector. The JOLTS report showed job openings climbed, which suggests the US labor market remains resilient even as political and macro risks heighten into year-end. Oil prices edged lower after API crude inventory data showed a drawdown, highlighting mixed trends for domestic energy supply and demand despite ongoing volatility in global commodity markets.
Benchmark Moves
The S&P 500 gained 0.36%, while WTI crude oil fell 0.38% after API data showed a drawdown in US crude inventories earlier in the session. Tech stocks supported equities, highlighted by Microsoft rising 2.74% and Nvidia up 2.29%. The drop in oil prices tempered inflation pressures, which is a key transmission channel for rate and margin expectations. This cross-asset move indicates equities benefitted from lower input cost risk across assets.
Market data as of Nov 3, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET.
Market data as of Nov 3, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET.
Market data as of Nov 3, 2026 at 5:00 PM ET.
Key Financial Reports
US corporate earnings were mostly upbeat, with notable strength in alternative asset managers. Apollo Global Management (APO) reported $2.07 in earnings, benefiting from record fee-related earnings and robust capital formation, as noted on the company's call. AMD and Amgen also gave guidance: AMD expects fourth-quarter revenue of about $17 billion, plus or minus 3%, after record sales of its Instinct GPUs and EPYC CPUs, and Amgen expects 2026 revenue of $38.9 billion to $39.7 billion after volume-driven product sales growth of 8%. This batch shows US financial firms are leaning on fee growth and fundraising momentum, which supports resilience in the sector despite competitive and funding headwinds.
EPS reported on November 3, 2026 ET. Figures use each company's reported basis.
Key Macroeconomic Reports
The US economy showed resilience as factory orders rose by 1.8%, exceeding the forecast of 1.2%. This increase, along with job openings climbing to 7.523M, indicates a strengthening labor market and solid manufacturing demand. Together, these figures suggest that economic activity is gaining momentum ahead of the midterm elections, influencing both market expectations and potential policy implications.
Macroeconomic data released on November 3, 2026 ET.
Top Stories
A quick look at the five stories that shaped today's market sentiment. Explained with brief context highlighting why each story mattered today.
Source: MarketWatch — Top Stories
S&P 500 is looking over the edge of a technical cliff — what happens if it falls off?
The S&P 500 is approaching a critical level, with a fall below 7,500 potentially triggering increased selling pressure and volatility, according to a J.P. Morgan strategist. Such a decline could lead to a full-blown market correction. Investors are closely monitoring this threshold as it may indicate broader market instability. The implications of this technical cliff could affect trading strategies and market sentiment significantly.
Source: MarketWatch — Top Stories
This indicator has triggered just 5 times since 2000 — and it warns of a trap for stocks
An indicator that has only triggered five times since 2000 is raising concerns about the current stock market setup. Rising inflation is limiting central banks' ability to lower rates, which could lead to further market drawdowns. A macro research house recommends reducing stock holdings while increasing allocations to bonds and cash. This strategy reflects a cautious approach amid the current economic climate.
Source: MarketWatch — Top Stories
Nasdaq-100 tumbles into its third correction this year as AI worries mount
The Nasdaq-100 has entered its third correction of the year, driven by ongoing concerns regarding artificial intelligence. The market's decline, referred to as the 'tech wreck,' has continued since October. Analysts are now questioning whether a bear market is on the horizon. This situation highlights the volatility and uncertainty in the tech sector as investors reassess their positions.
Source: MarketWatch — Top Stories
What analysts are telling us while Apple’s stock falls after earnings report
Apple's stock fell nearly 2% following its earnings report, as investors expressed disappointment over the company's gross margin outlook and slowing growth in services revenue. Analysts are evaluating the implications of these results on Apple's future performance. The decline in share price reflects investor concerns about the company's ability to maintain growth amid changing market conditions. This reaction underscores the sensitivity of tech stocks to earnings expectations.
Source: MarketWatch — Top Stories
Here’s why Palantir’s stock is down despite a ‘bombastic’ quarter
Despite reporting a strong quarter, Palantir's stock has declined due to a slowdown in U.S. commercial contract growth. This deceleration has raised concerns among some Wall Street analysts, overshadowing the company's earnings beat. Investors are weighing the implications of this growth slowdown against the backdrop of the company's overall performance. The mixed signals from Palantir's results highlight the complexities of the current market environment.
Other Headlines
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Explore all past issues →The Market ThesisDaily Summary
United States Edition
November 4, 2026 at 5:30 AM ET
Markets Recap for November 3, 2026
US Stocks Mixed as Midterm Elections Approach
What's in the markets today?
US factory orders rose by 1.8%, providing a signal that manufacturing demand improved ahead of the midterm elections and reinforcing the view that industrial activity is gaining momentum this quarter. The S&P 500 advanced modestly as investors tracked expectations for Democratic gains in the congressional vote, spurring positioning shifts tied to possible fiscal and regulatory policy changes. Apple shares dropped after the company reported results showing slower revenue growth, prompting scrutiny of future demand for its main product lines and weighing on the broader technology sector. The JOLTS report showed job openings climbed, which suggests the US labor market remains resilient even as political and macro risks heighten into year-end. Oil prices edged lower after API crude inventory data showed a drawdown, highlighting mixed trends for domestic energy supply and demand despite ongoing volatility in global commodity markets.
Benchmark Moves
The S&P 500 gained 0.36%, while WTI crude oil fell 0.38% after API data showed a drawdown in US crude inventories earlier in the session. Tech stocks supported equities, highlighted by Microsoft rising 2.74% and Nvidia up 2.29%. The drop in oil prices tempered inflation pressures, which is a key transmission channel for rate and margin expectations. This cross-asset move indicates equities benefitted from lower input cost risk across assets.
Indexes
Detailed View →Market data as of Nov 3, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET.
Stocks
Detailed View →Market data as of Nov 3, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET.
Commodities & Crypto
Detailed View →Market data as of Nov 3, 2026 at 5:00 PM ET.
Key Financial Reports
US corporate earnings were mostly upbeat, with notable strength in alternative asset managers. Apollo Global Management (APO) reported $2.07 in earnings, benefiting from record fee-related earnings and robust capital formation, as noted on the company's call. AMD and Amgen also gave guidance: AMD expects fourth-quarter revenue of about $17 billion, plus or minus 3%, after record sales of its Instinct GPUs and EPYC CPUs, and Amgen expects 2026 revenue of $38.9 billion to $39.7 billion after volume-driven product sales growth of 8%. This batch shows US financial firms are leaning on fee growth and fundraising momentum, which supports resilience in the sector despite competitive and funding headwinds.
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
Detailed View →EPS reported on November 3, 2026 ET. Figures use each company's reported basis.
Key Macroeconomic Reports
The US economy showed resilience as factory orders rose by 1.8%, exceeding the forecast of 1.2%. This increase, along with job openings climbing to 7.523M, indicates a strengthening labor market and solid manufacturing demand. Together, these figures suggest that economic activity is gaining momentum ahead of the midterm elections, influencing both market expectations and potential policy implications.
Macroeconomic Data
Detailed View →Macroeconomic data released on November 3, 2026 ET.
Top Stories
A quick look at the five stories that shaped today's market sentiment. Explained with brief context highlighting why each story mattered today.
S&P 500 is looking over the edge of a technical cliff — what happens if it falls off?
The S&P 500 is approaching a critical level, with a fall below 7,500 potentially triggering increased selling pressure and volatility, according to a J.P. Morgan strategist. Such a decline could lead to a full-blown market correction. Investors are closely monitoring this threshold as it may indicate broader market instability. The implications of this technical cliff could affect trading strategies and market sentiment significantly.
Source: MarketWatch — Top Stories
This indicator has triggered just 5 times since 2000 — and it warns of a trap for stocks
An indicator that has only triggered five times since 2000 is raising concerns about the current stock market setup. Rising inflation is limiting central banks' ability to lower rates, which could lead to further market drawdowns. A macro research house recommends reducing stock holdings while increasing allocations to bonds and cash. This strategy reflects a cautious approach amid the current economic climate.
Source: MarketWatch — Top Stories
Nasdaq-100 tumbles into its third correction this year as AI worries mount
The Nasdaq-100 has entered its third correction of the year, driven by ongoing concerns regarding artificial intelligence. The market's decline, referred to as the 'tech wreck,' has continued since October. Analysts are now questioning whether a bear market is on the horizon. This situation highlights the volatility and uncertainty in the tech sector as investors reassess their positions.
Source: MarketWatch — Top Stories
What analysts are telling us while Apple’s stock falls after earnings report
Apple's stock fell nearly 2% following its earnings report, as investors expressed disappointment over the company's gross margin outlook and slowing growth in services revenue. Analysts are evaluating the implications of these results on Apple's future performance. The decline in share price reflects investor concerns about the company's ability to maintain growth amid changing market conditions. This reaction underscores the sensitivity of tech stocks to earnings expectations.
Source: MarketWatch — Top Stories
Here’s why Palantir’s stock is down despite a ‘bombastic’ quarter
Despite reporting a strong quarter, Palantir's stock has declined due to a slowdown in U.S. commercial contract growth. This deceleration has raised concerns among some Wall Street analysts, overshadowing the company's earnings beat. Investors are weighing the implications of this growth slowdown against the backdrop of the company's overall performance. The mixed signals from Palantir's results highlight the complexities of the current market environment.
Source: MarketWatch — Top Stories
Other Headlines
3 signs cash-strapped consumers are nearing a ‘spend-pocalypse’ that would hurt the economy
Saudi Aramco Profit Jumps Despite Damaging Attacks on Pipelines and Refineries
The stock market loves gridlock. But midterm elections won’t resolve two big money fights.
Gaming Out the Prospect of a Blue Wave
This signal from the corporate bond market has historically preceded big drawdowns for the S&P 500
Flouting Consumer Law, Insurers Refuse to Pay Medical Bills for Emergency Care
Shopify’s stock slides after earnings. This is what’s worrying Wall Street.
Job openings posted big September gain in positive sign for labor market ahead of payrolls report
Blackstone president calls for more equity to fund AI buildout as debt risks mount
Brent crude slides 3% after Trump says US will stop military funding to Israel ‘by end of this year’ – as it happened
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