The Market ThesisWeekly Summary
Europe & UK Edition
August 1, 2026 at 9:00 AM ET
By MacroGlide's Analysts
Markets Recap for the week of July 27 – August 2, 2026
European Stocks Climb on Earnings Boost Amid Mixed Signals
Weekly Top Trends
SAP SE led European equities this week with a 12.47% surge following its earnings release. The stock's strong move helped push the EURO STOXX 50 up 1.23%, setting the tone for broad gains across the region. SAP's outperformance made technology the standout sector and marked the company's strongest weekly rally of the year.
WTI crude oil prices dropped 5.20% as broader energy markets adjusted to improving supply signals. This decline eased input cost pressure on European manufacturers and airlines after several weeks of higher prices. Industrial names in Germany and France outperformed peers, tying index gains in part to falling fuel costs.
Spain's GDP grew 0.7% quarter-over-quarter in the flash reading for Q2, outpacing both the forecast and previous period. Meanwhile, France grew just 0.2% for the quarter, highlighting a north-south growth gap within the eurozone. The upside surprise in Spain reinforced resilience among southern European economies at a time of mixed data elsewhere.
Benchmark Moves
The EURO STOXX 50 rose 1.23% to 6,358.01 this week, driven mainly by strong quarterly results from companies such as SAP SE, which jumped 12.47%. Gains in equities were partly supported by a steep drop in WTI Crude Oil, down 5.20% to $84.67, lowering input costs for several European sectors. Tech names like ASML diverged, sliding 8.24%, as sector-specific issues offset the broader lift from lower energy prices. The pullback in oil acts as a near-term tailwind for European manufacturing and transport, suggesting these industries could outperform if energy relief continues and corporate earnings hold up next week.
Market data as of Jul 31, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET.
Market data as of Jul 31, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET.
Market data as of Jul 31, 2026 at 5:00 PM ET.
Key Financial Reports
This week’s European earnings season showed a clear trend of upside surprises led by luxury and healthcare firms, while industrials faced margin pressures. Linde plc (LIN) missed earnings estimates with EPS of 4.09 versus 4.49 expected, as management flagged higher raw material costs and softer demand in its EMEA gases division, which contributed to sequentially lower operating margins from the previous quarter’s 4.33. In contrast, Hermès (HESAY) reported EPS of 2.427, exceeding estimates by 0.04, driven by continued strength in its core leather goods segment and supported by tight cost control despite revenue growth decelerating after last quarter’s 2.577. Across sectors, the ability of luxury and healthcare companies such as Hermès and AstraZeneca to maintain pricing power and control expenses stands out, while traditional industrials like Linde face concrete headwinds from input cost inflation and modest demand in key regions.
EPS reported the week of July 27 – August 2, 2026 ET. Figures use each company's reported basis.
Key Macroeconomic Reports
Resilience defined the eurozone's macro landscape this week. Germany’s Ifo Business Climate index climbed to 86.6 in July, its second positive move in a row and up from 85.7 previously, reflecting confidence from Europe’s largest economy. At the same time, Spain’s Q2 GDP beat expectations, expanding 0.7% quarter-over-quarter compared to the 0.6% forecast and previous reading, while annual growth held steady at 2.7%. The combination of a stronger German outlook and robust Spanish economic output signals that growth is stabilizing, which may encourage the ECB to maintain a cautious stance as it weighs future policy steps.
Macroeconomic data released the week of July 27 – August 2, 2026 ET.
Weekly Reflection
What was the main outcome of the week?
The core market driver this week was a wave of robust earnings from several key European companies. Leaders like SAP, which jumped 12.47% after beating expectations, and LVMH and AstraZeneca, which posted positive surprises of 0.15 and 0.13 EPS respectively, lifted the region’s benchmarks. Despite muted French GDP growth at just 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, earnings strength powered the EURO STOXX 50 to a 1.23% gain and pushed the DAX 40 up 2.11%.
What do we infer from the market behavior?
Trading flows signaled a decisive shift toward companies outperforming on earnings, as seen in SAP’s sharp rally and the rotation away from laggards such as ASML, which dropped 8.24% after results. Index gains masked internal volatility, with Linde falling by 0.4 EPS versus estimates while Hermès and LVMH outperformed. These patterns point to concentrated positioning in large-cap winners and elevated single-stock volatility linked directly to earnings releases.
What the week revealed about the current market state?
The underlying state of the market is one of persistent headline resilience paired with growing internal dispersion. While major indices advanced, sector and stock-level moves became more pronounced, reflecting both the impact of earnings beats and misses and the drag from uneven macro data, like France’s YoY GDP growth slowing to 0.7%. The structure now favors established leaders as broader participation weakens, with sensitivity to both corporate and macro catalysts.
How these insights shape the forward picture?
Asset allocation in the coming weeks will hinge on the next round of macro releases and signals from the European Central Bank. Softer French GDP and the mixed tone from leading companies will keep attention on growth momentum and policy responses. Investors are likely to stay selective, rewarding earnings outperformance while volatility remains high around upcoming data and geopolitical headlines.
Top Stories
A quick look at the five stories that shaped this week's market sentiment. Explained with brief context highlighting why each story mattered this week.
Source: Euronews — Business
Microsoft posts record profit as shares surge 10%, while Meta disappoints
Microsoft reported a record quarterly profit, with shares rising 10% following the announcement. The company is forecasting accelerated growth in its Azure cloud services. In contrast, Meta's profits and margins were negatively impacted by severance costs and legal expenses. This divergence highlights the contrasting fortunes of the two tech giants in the current market.
Source: CNBC — UK/Europe
Exxon and Chevron profits surge on rising oil prices due to Iran war
ExxonMobil and Chevron reported significant profit increases for the second quarter, driven by rising oil prices amid the Iran war. Chevron's net income surged to $12 billion, a nearly 400% increase from $2.5 billion a year earlier, while Exxon's profits reached $14.5 billion, more than double the $7.1 billion from the same quarter last year. Chevron's U.S. production hit a record of about 2 million barrels per day, contributing to a 20% increase in worldwide output. Both companies faced challenges in forecasting prices due to market disruptions.
Source: City A.M.
Bank of England to hold interest rates as oil price surge threatens UK economy
The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee is expected to maintain interest rates at 3.75% in response to rising oil prices that threaten the UK economy. This decision reflects ongoing concerns about inflation and economic stability amid fluctuating energy costs. The central bank's stance indicates a cautious approach to monetary policy in light of external pressures.
Source: City A.M.
FTSE 100 firm agrees £5.7bn takeover in latest private equity swoop
DCC, a FTSE 100 energy group, has agreed to a £5.75 billion takeover by a consortium of private equity firms. This acquisition represents a significant move in the private equity market and adds to the recent trend of large-scale buyouts impacting the London Stock Exchange. The deal highlights the ongoing interest from private equity in established companies within the energy sector.
Source: CNBC — UK/Europe
Oil prices rise after U.S. blocks surprise attack from Iran
U.S. oil futures rose 4.4% to $82.73 a barrel after American forces intercepted an attack from Iran. The attempted surprise attack involved multiple ballistic missiles aimed at U.S. forces in the Middle East. This incident followed a period of declining oil prices, with Brent crude futures previously falling 4.8% to $84.09 a barrel. Analysts caution that while tensions have eased temporarily, risks to global energy supplies remain high.
Other Headlines
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Explore all past issues →The Market ThesisWeekly Summary
Europe & UK Edition
August 1, 2026 at 9:00 AM ET
Markets Recap for the week of July 27 – August 2, 2026
European Stocks Climb on Earnings Boost Amid Mixed Signals
Weekly Top Trends
SAP SE led European equities this week with a 12.47% surge following its earnings release. The stock's strong move helped push the EURO STOXX 50 up 1.23%, setting the tone for broad gains across the region. SAP's outperformance made technology the standout sector and marked the company's strongest weekly rally of the year.
WTI crude oil prices dropped 5.20% as broader energy markets adjusted to improving supply signals. This decline eased input cost pressure on European manufacturers and airlines after several weeks of higher prices. Industrial names in Germany and France outperformed peers, tying index gains in part to falling fuel costs.
Spain's GDP grew 0.7% quarter-over-quarter in the flash reading for Q2, outpacing both the forecast and previous period. Meanwhile, France grew just 0.2% for the quarter, highlighting a north-south growth gap within the eurozone. The upside surprise in Spain reinforced resilience among southern European economies at a time of mixed data elsewhere.
Benchmark Moves
The EURO STOXX 50 rose 1.23% to 6,358.01 this week, driven mainly by strong quarterly results from companies such as SAP SE, which jumped 12.47%. Gains in equities were partly supported by a steep drop in WTI Crude Oil, down 5.20% to $84.67, lowering input costs for several European sectors. Tech names like ASML diverged, sliding 8.24%, as sector-specific issues offset the broader lift from lower energy prices. The pullback in oil acts as a near-term tailwind for European manufacturing and transport, suggesting these industries could outperform if energy relief continues and corporate earnings hold up next week.
Indexes
Detailed View →Market data as of Jul 31, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET.
Stocks
Detailed View →Market data as of Jul 31, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET.
Commodities & Crypto
Detailed View →Market data as of Jul 31, 2026 at 5:00 PM ET.
Key Financial Reports
This week’s European earnings season showed a clear trend of upside surprises led by luxury and healthcare firms, while industrials faced margin pressures. Linde plc (LIN) missed earnings estimates with EPS of 4.09 versus 4.49 expected, as management flagged higher raw material costs and softer demand in its EMEA gases division, which contributed to sequentially lower operating margins from the previous quarter’s 4.33. In contrast, Hermès (HESAY) reported EPS of 2.427, exceeding estimates by 0.04, driven by continued strength in its core leather goods segment and supported by tight cost control despite revenue growth decelerating after last quarter’s 2.577. Across sectors, the ability of luxury and healthcare companies such as Hermès and AstraZeneca to maintain pricing power and control expenses stands out, while traditional industrials like Linde face concrete headwinds from input cost inflation and modest demand in key regions.
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
Detailed View →EPS reported the week of July 27 – August 2, 2026 ET. Figures use each company's reported basis.
Key Macroeconomic Reports
Resilience defined the eurozone's macro landscape this week. Germany’s Ifo Business Climate index climbed to 86.6 in July, its second positive move in a row and up from 85.7 previously, reflecting confidence from Europe’s largest economy. At the same time, Spain’s Q2 GDP beat expectations, expanding 0.7% quarter-over-quarter compared to the 0.6% forecast and previous reading, while annual growth held steady at 2.7%. The combination of a stronger German outlook and robust Spanish economic output signals that growth is stabilizing, which may encourage the ECB to maintain a cautious stance as it weighs future policy steps.
Macroeconomic Data
Detailed View →Macroeconomic data released the week of July 27 – August 2, 2026 ET.
Weekly Reflection
What was the main outcome of the week?
The core market driver this week was a wave of robust earnings from several key European companies. Leaders like SAP, which jumped 12.47% after beating expectations, and LVMH and AstraZeneca, which posted positive surprises of 0.15 and 0.13 EPS respectively, lifted the region’s benchmarks. Despite muted French GDP growth at just 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, earnings strength powered the EURO STOXX 50 to a 1.23% gain and pushed the DAX 40 up 2.11%.
What do we infer from the market behavior?
Trading flows signaled a decisive shift toward companies outperforming on earnings, as seen in SAP’s sharp rally and the rotation away from laggards such as ASML, which dropped 8.24% after results. Index gains masked internal volatility, with Linde falling by 0.4 EPS versus estimates while Hermès and LVMH outperformed. These patterns point to concentrated positioning in large-cap winners and elevated single-stock volatility linked directly to earnings releases.
What the week revealed about the current market state?
The underlying state of the market is one of persistent headline resilience paired with growing internal dispersion. While major indices advanced, sector and stock-level moves became more pronounced, reflecting both the impact of earnings beats and misses and the drag from uneven macro data, like France’s YoY GDP growth slowing to 0.7%. The structure now favors established leaders as broader participation weakens, with sensitivity to both corporate and macro catalysts.
How these insights shape the forward picture?
Asset allocation in the coming weeks will hinge on the next round of macro releases and signals from the European Central Bank. Softer French GDP and the mixed tone from leading companies will keep attention on growth momentum and policy responses. Investors are likely to stay selective, rewarding earnings outperformance while volatility remains high around upcoming data and geopolitical headlines.
Top Stories
A quick look at the five stories that shaped this week's market sentiment. Explained with brief context highlighting why each story mattered this week.
Microsoft posts record profit as shares surge 10%, while Meta disappoints
Microsoft reported a record quarterly profit, with shares rising 10% following the announcement. The company is forecasting accelerated growth in its Azure cloud services. In contrast, Meta's profits and margins were negatively impacted by severance costs and legal expenses. This divergence highlights the contrasting fortunes of the two tech giants in the current market.
Source: Euronews — Business
Exxon and Chevron profits surge on rising oil prices due to Iran war
ExxonMobil and Chevron reported significant profit increases for the second quarter, driven by rising oil prices amid the Iran war. Chevron's net income surged to $12 billion, a nearly 400% increase from $2.5 billion a year earlier, while Exxon's profits reached $14.5 billion, more than double the $7.1 billion from the same quarter last year. Chevron's U.S. production hit a record of about 2 million barrels per day, contributing to a 20% increase in worldwide output. Both companies faced challenges in forecasting prices due to market disruptions.
Source: CNBC — UK/Europe
Bank of England to hold interest rates as oil price surge threatens UK economy
The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee is expected to maintain interest rates at 3.75% in response to rising oil prices that threaten the UK economy. This decision reflects ongoing concerns about inflation and economic stability amid fluctuating energy costs. The central bank's stance indicates a cautious approach to monetary policy in light of external pressures.
Source: City A.M.
FTSE 100 firm agrees £5.7bn takeover in latest private equity swoop
DCC, a FTSE 100 energy group, has agreed to a £5.75 billion takeover by a consortium of private equity firms. This acquisition represents a significant move in the private equity market and adds to the recent trend of large-scale buyouts impacting the London Stock Exchange. The deal highlights the ongoing interest from private equity in established companies within the energy sector.
Source: City A.M.
Oil prices rise after U.S. blocks surprise attack from Iran
U.S. oil futures rose 4.4% to $82.73 a barrel after American forces intercepted an attack from Iran. The attempted surprise attack involved multiple ballistic missiles aimed at U.S. forces in the Middle East. This incident followed a period of declining oil prices, with Brent crude futures previously falling 4.8% to $84.09 a barrel. Analysts caution that while tensions have eased temporarily, risks to global energy supplies remain high.
Source: CNBC — UK/Europe
Other Headlines
Asia’s richest man Adani weighs bid for UK’s top port operator
Brent oil jumps back above $90 after Trump threatens to hit Iran hard
Surging UK stocks prompt flurry of trades on investment platforms
Apple warns of memory chip shortage for key devices
Russian Missiles Kill 9 in Kyiv, Hours After Trump Backs Off Air Defense Pledge
How China exploits EU divisions over trade
Varta files for insolvency as German battery maker’s crisis deepens
Grant Thornton set for $5bn CBIZ buyout in landmark accountancy deal
Europe’s AI safety rules take on US rogue agents and Chinese ambitions
Ukraine adapts strikes on Russian energy industry to hit critical components
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