The Market ThesisNext Week Outlook
Europe & UK Edition
August 9, 2026 at 9:00 AM ET
By MacroGlide's Analysts
Markets Outlook for the week of August 10 – 16, 2026
EU Economic Data and Sanctions Bill Impact Markets
Is the market ready for the week ahead?
The key event for Europe this week is the release of UK Manufacturing Production, where consensus forecasts a -0.1% month-on-month change after a 0.1% gain last period. This softer outlook for UK industry coincides with WTI crude oil holding at $78.18, up 1.15% on the week, as energy market risks remain elevated following new US Senate sanctions on Russia. Attention also turns to corporate earnings, with ReNew Energy Global expected to report an EPS of 0.12, up from 0.02 previously. The EURO STOXX 50 edged up 0.33% to 6,523.86 last week, reflecting some resilience in equities even as industrial headwinds and higher energy prices build. Together, the combination of weaker manufacturing forecasts and firm oil suggests limited upside for European stocks near term.
Key Upcoming Events
GDP Growth Rate Released
The GDP growth rate is released on August 14. The forecast is 0.4%, compared to the previous 0.6%. This report is crucial as it reflects the Eurozone's economic performance amid ongoing sanctions and energy price volatility. A slowdown in GDP could signal deeper economic challenges in the region. Market yields are likely to respond based on the implications of these growth figures.
Consumer Price Index Released
The Consumer Price Index data is released on August 15. The consensus estimate is 2.8%, matching the previous figure. This data is important to understand inflation trends as the European Central Bank monitors price stability. Stable inflation figures might indicate that current monetary policy is effective in managing economic pressures. Watch for shifts in rates as they adjust to this inflation data.
Industrial Production Monthly Report
The industrial production data is scheduled for release on August 14. The forecast is at 0.1%, improving from a previous -0.5%. This report will provide insights into the manufacturing sector’s health amid fluctuating energy prices. An increase in industrial activity is vital for economic recovery in the region. Manufacturing stocks may react significantly to this data.
Wholesale Prices YoY Data Released
The wholesale prices year-on-year data is released on August 15. The last recorded figure was 4.9%. Tracking wholesale prices is essential for understanding inflation pressures faced by businesses. An uptick in prices could suggest mounting costs that may affect consumer goods. Retail prices and consumer behavior will likely adjust in response to these trends.
Retail Sales Monitor Released
The BRC Retail Sales Monitor is scheduled for release on August 15. The estimate is 1.5%, decreasing from the previous 1.7%. This report will shed light on consumer spending amidst persistent inflation concerns. A drop in retail sales could indicate diminishing consumer confidence, impacting growth forecasts for the economy. Retail sector performance is expected to be sensitive to this data.
Seasonality
A brief look at the strongest seasonal patterns for the week ahead. These patterns highlight date ranges where this asset has historically shown consistent moves.
Sample period varies by company from 7 to 10 years of historical data.
Sample period varies by company from 7 to 10 years of historical data.
Key Financial Reports
ReNew Energy Global Plc (RNW) is set to report an EPS estimate of 0.12, up sharply from last quarter's 0.02. The stock showed a mild drop of 1.99% on its last report and has averaged nearly flat moves over four quarters. Jbs N.v. (JBS) expects 0.32 EPS, also a step up from 0.20 previously, but past reports have led to almost no immediate share price reaction. Ørsted A/S (DNNGY) is forecast to deliver 0.06 EPS, with a slight post-earnings rally last quarter, yet its four-quarter trend is negative. Overall, muted historical reactions to earnings suggest only a clear surprise is likely to move shares meaningfully this week.
EPS scheduled for the week of August 10 – 16, 2026 ET.
Key Macroeconomic Reports
UK Manufacturing Production is forecast to fall by 0.1%, a reversal from last month's 0.1% gain and below its four-quarter average of 0.25%. A negative print would underline ongoing weakness in UK industry and could pressure gilt yields lower if investors expect softer growth ahead. In Denmark, inflation remains stable with the previous annual rates at 1.8% and 1.9%, closely matching the recent 1.85% and 1.9% averages. This lack of acceleration in Danish prices supports the case for no immediate shift in Nordic rate policy. Markets will watch if persistent output softness in the UK or continued stable inflation in Denmark signals a period of steady rates across the region.
Macroeconomic data scheduled for the week of August 10 – 16, 2026 ET.
Top Stories
A quick look at the five stories that are set to shape next week's market sentiment. Explained with brief context highlighting why each story matters next week.
Source: City A.M.
Thames Water faces fresh threat to survival after pensions regulation breach
Thames Water is facing a critical financial situation, potentially running out of cash by December. The company failed to complete a valuation of its pension scheme by the required statutory deadline. This breach of regulation raises concerns about its ability to meet financial obligations. The urgency of the situation highlights the need for immediate action to ensure the company's survival.
Source: City A.M.
Donald Trump is creeping towards a shrewd sanctions policy
President Trump is adjusting his approach to sanctions against Russia, moving towards a stronger pro-Ukraine stance. This shift aims to support Ukraine while also addressing potential disruptions in global trade. The administration is expected to carefully balance these sanctions to avoid negative impacts on U.S. corporations involved in the Russian market. The changes reflect an evolving U.S. foreign policy in response to ongoing conflicts.
Source: City A.M.
HSBC kicks off $1bn share buyback after profit smashes forecast
HSBC has initiated a $1 billion share buyback program following a significant profit increase in the second quarter of 2026. The bank's profits exceeded expectations, prompting this move to return value to shareholders. The decision reflects confidence in the bank's financial health and growth prospects. This buyback is part of HSBC's strategy to enhance shareholder returns amid a favorable earnings environment.
Source: Politico Europe — Economy
EU adds 5 people to Russia sanctions list after latest deadly attacks on Ukraine
In response to a deadly attack on Kyiv that killed 17 people, the EU has added five individuals to its sanctions list against Russia. This decision follows intensified strikes by Russia, which have increasingly targeted civilians and infrastructure in Ukraine. Among those sanctioned are key figures involved in missile production. The EU aims to increase pressure on Russia to cease its military actions in Ukraine.
Source: CNBC — UK/Europe
Saudi Aramco profits jump 33% in second quarter as Iran war squeezes oil supply
Saudi Aramco reported a 33% increase in second-quarter profits, reaching 125.2 billion Saudi riyal ($33.4 billion) amid ongoing conflict in the Middle East. The company managed to maintain maximum export capacity of 7 million barrels per day despite disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Higher prices for refined products and crude oil contributed to the profit surge, although lower sales volumes partially offset this gain. Aramco plans to pay a base dividend of $21.9 billion in the coming months.
Other Headlines
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Explore all past issues →The Market ThesisNext Week Outlook
Europe & UK Edition
August 9, 2026 at 9:00 AM ET
Markets Outlook for the week of August 10 – 16, 2026
EU Economic Data and Sanctions Bill Impact Markets
Is the market ready for the week ahead?
The key event for Europe this week is the release of UK Manufacturing Production, where consensus forecasts a -0.1% month-on-month change after a 0.1% gain last period. This softer outlook for UK industry coincides with WTI crude oil holding at $78.18, up 1.15% on the week, as energy market risks remain elevated following new US Senate sanctions on Russia. Attention also turns to corporate earnings, with ReNew Energy Global expected to report an EPS of 0.12, up from 0.02 previously. The EURO STOXX 50 edged up 0.33% to 6,523.86 last week, reflecting some resilience in equities even as industrial headwinds and higher energy prices build. Together, the combination of weaker manufacturing forecasts and firm oil suggests limited upside for European stocks near term.
Key Upcoming Events
GDP Growth Rate Released
The GDP growth rate is released on August 14. The forecast is 0.4%, compared to the previous 0.6%. This report is crucial as it reflects the Eurozone's economic performance amid ongoing sanctions and energy price volatility. A slowdown in GDP could signal deeper economic challenges in the region. Market yields are likely to respond based on the implications of these growth figures.
Consumer Price Index Released
The Consumer Price Index data is released on August 15. The consensus estimate is 2.8%, matching the previous figure. This data is important to understand inflation trends as the European Central Bank monitors price stability. Stable inflation figures might indicate that current monetary policy is effective in managing economic pressures. Watch for shifts in rates as they adjust to this inflation data.
Industrial Production Monthly Report
The industrial production data is scheduled for release on August 14. The forecast is at 0.1%, improving from a previous -0.5%. This report will provide insights into the manufacturing sector’s health amid fluctuating energy prices. An increase in industrial activity is vital for economic recovery in the region. Manufacturing stocks may react significantly to this data.
Wholesale Prices YoY Data Released
The wholesale prices year-on-year data is released on August 15. The last recorded figure was 4.9%. Tracking wholesale prices is essential for understanding inflation pressures faced by businesses. An uptick in prices could suggest mounting costs that may affect consumer goods. Retail prices and consumer behavior will likely adjust in response to these trends.
Retail Sales Monitor Released
The BRC Retail Sales Monitor is scheduled for release on August 15. The estimate is 1.5%, decreasing from the previous 1.7%. This report will shed light on consumer spending amidst persistent inflation concerns. A drop in retail sales could indicate diminishing consumer confidence, impacting growth forecasts for the economy. Retail sector performance is expected to be sensitive to this data.
Seasonality
A brief look at the strongest seasonal patterns for the week ahead. These patterns highlight date ranges where this asset has historically shown consistent moves.
Stocks & ETFs
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Sample period varies by company from 7 to 10 years of historical data.
Commodities & Crypto
Detailed View →Return
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Sample period varies by company from 7 to 10 years of historical data.
Key Financial Reports
ReNew Energy Global Plc (RNW) is set to report an EPS estimate of 0.12, up sharply from last quarter's 0.02. The stock showed a mild drop of 1.99% on its last report and has averaged nearly flat moves over four quarters. Jbs N.v. (JBS) expects 0.32 EPS, also a step up from 0.20 previously, but past reports have led to almost no immediate share price reaction. Ørsted A/S (DNNGY) is forecast to deliver 0.06 EPS, with a slight post-earnings rally last quarter, yet its four-quarter trend is negative. Overall, muted historical reactions to earnings suggest only a clear surprise is likely to move shares meaningfully this week.
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
Detailed View →Reaction
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Reaction
EPS scheduled for the week of August 10 – 16, 2026 ET.
Key Macroeconomic Reports
UK Manufacturing Production is forecast to fall by 0.1%, a reversal from last month's 0.1% gain and below its four-quarter average of 0.25%. A negative print would underline ongoing weakness in UK industry and could pressure gilt yields lower if investors expect softer growth ahead. In Denmark, inflation remains stable with the previous annual rates at 1.8% and 1.9%, closely matching the recent 1.85% and 1.9% averages. This lack of acceleration in Danish prices supports the case for no immediate shift in Nordic rate policy. Markets will watch if persistent output softness in the UK or continued stable inflation in Denmark signals a period of steady rates across the region.
Macroeconomic Data
Detailed View →Macroeconomic data scheduled for the week of August 10 – 16, 2026 ET.
Top Stories
A quick look at the five stories that are set to shape next week's market sentiment. Explained with brief context highlighting why each story matters next week.
Thames Water faces fresh threat to survival after pensions regulation breach
Thames Water is facing a critical financial situation, potentially running out of cash by December. The company failed to complete a valuation of its pension scheme by the required statutory deadline. This breach of regulation raises concerns about its ability to meet financial obligations. The urgency of the situation highlights the need for immediate action to ensure the company's survival.
Source: City A.M.
Donald Trump is creeping towards a shrewd sanctions policy
President Trump is adjusting his approach to sanctions against Russia, moving towards a stronger pro-Ukraine stance. This shift aims to support Ukraine while also addressing potential disruptions in global trade. The administration is expected to carefully balance these sanctions to avoid negative impacts on U.S. corporations involved in the Russian market. The changes reflect an evolving U.S. foreign policy in response to ongoing conflicts.
Source: City A.M.
HSBC kicks off $1bn share buyback after profit smashes forecast
HSBC has initiated a $1 billion share buyback program following a significant profit increase in the second quarter of 2026. The bank's profits exceeded expectations, prompting this move to return value to shareholders. The decision reflects confidence in the bank's financial health and growth prospects. This buyback is part of HSBC's strategy to enhance shareholder returns amid a favorable earnings environment.
Source: City A.M.
EU adds 5 people to Russia sanctions list after latest deadly attacks on Ukraine
In response to a deadly attack on Kyiv that killed 17 people, the EU has added five individuals to its sanctions list against Russia. This decision follows intensified strikes by Russia, which have increasingly targeted civilians and infrastructure in Ukraine. Among those sanctioned are key figures involved in missile production. The EU aims to increase pressure on Russia to cease its military actions in Ukraine.
Source: Politico Europe — Economy
Saudi Aramco profits jump 33% in second quarter as Iran war squeezes oil supply
Saudi Aramco reported a 33% increase in second-quarter profits, reaching 125.2 billion Saudi riyal ($33.4 billion) amid ongoing conflict in the Middle East. The company managed to maintain maximum export capacity of 7 million barrels per day despite disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Higher prices for refined products and crude oil contributed to the profit surge, although lower sales volumes partially offset this gain. Aramco plans to pay a base dividend of $21.9 billion in the coming months.
Source: CNBC — UK/Europe
Other Headlines
London’s IPO lull expected to last into 2027
US Senate passes Russia sanctions bill
Revolut founder’s wealth set to balloon amid talks of share award at $500bn valuation
BP profit more than doubles as Middle East conflict boosts oil prices
Exclusive: Blackstone set to back AI ‘droid’ firm at $3.5bn valuation
EU ministers to back Spain as Ceuta crisis pushes migration up the agenda
SpaceX posts smaller-than-expected loss despite scrutiny over AI spending
Trump says Exxon and Chevron made 'too much money' off high oil prices during Iran conflict: 'I don't like it'
Enjoying The Market Thesis? Get more news and analysis with our regional editions for The United States and Asia & Pacific.
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