The Market ThesisNext Week Outlook
Europe & UK Edition
November 8, 2026 at 9:00 AM ET
By MacroGlide's Analysts
Markets Outlook for the week of November 9 – 15, 2026
UK GDP Data and Key Earnings Reports Ahead
Is the market ready for the week ahead?
UK GDP is the main catalyst this week, with quarterly growth forecast at 0.7% and annual growth expected at 1.9%. At the same time, German HICP inflation is forecast to hold at 2.8% year-over-year. Key European earnings include Vodafone, with an EPS estimate of $0.61, and Siemens, with an estimate of $1.59. Stronger GDP expectations and high-importance earnings align with recent EURO STOXX 50 declines of 0.98%. This setup signals that any disappointment in macro or earnings data keeps pressure on European equities.
Key Upcoming Events
UK Quarterly GDP Growth Rate Released
The UK’s preliminary quarterly GDP growth rate is released on November 12. The forecast is 0.7% versus the previous 0.5%. This release is important because it captures the UK’s momentum as tighter financial conditions and high rates persist in the current policy backdrop. Combined with ongoing weakness across other European markets and a cautious Bank of England, GDP performance is central for rate expectations and risk sentiment. UK rates and the FTSE 100 index are most sensitive through their direct link to the growth outlook.
UK Annual GDP Growth Rate Released
The UK annual GDP growth rate preliminary figure comes out on November 12. Consensus forecast is 1.9%, higher than the previous 1.4%. This data matters now because it reflects whether the UK is sustaining recovery amid persistent inflation and restrictive policy in the current macro regime. Alongside softening euro area indicators, this annual growth print will help clarify economic divergence or resilience. FTSE 100 equities and UK gilt yields are highly responsive via expectations for future economic strength.
German HICP Inflation Rate Published
Germany’s HICP year-over-year inflation rate is published on November 11. The forecast is 2.8%, the same as the previous 2.8%. This figure is key because Germany’s price pressures set the tone for broader eurozone inflation trends, which remain in focus in the current inflation backdrop. Combined with subdued economic activity and an ECB in wait-and-see mode, stable HICP is central for gauging policy risk. German bund yields and the DAX index are acutely sensitive through inflation’s impact on policy and sector rotation.
Vodafone Earnings Report
Vodafone (VOD) reports earnings results on November 10. The consensus EPS estimate is $0.61, rebounding from a prior loss of $0.62. This report is crucial because it reflects core telecom sector strength at a time of slowing growth and rising costs in the current earnings regime. Alongside market pressure on European equities, Vodafone’s ability to deliver earnings stability will inform sector and yield-seeking flows. Vodafone stock, the telecom sector, and the FTSE 100 index are most sensitive because of positioning around defensives.
Siemens and Allianz Earnings Reports
Siemens (SIEGY) and Allianz (ALIZY) both release financial results on November 12. Siemens’ estimate is $1.59 EPS versus the previous $1.67, while Allianz is expected at $0.98 EPS versus prior $0.75. These earnings matter now because industrial and financial sector resilience is a focus in the current mixed growth and high-rate policy backdrop across Europe. Combined with recent index declines and macro headwinds, sector results will test breadth and recovery hopes. Market sensitivity is highest for the DAX index and EURO STOXX 50 via sectoral earnings effects.
Seasonality
A brief look at the strongest seasonal patterns for the week ahead. These patterns highlight date ranges where this asset has historically shown consistent moves.
Sample period varies by company from 7 to 10 years of historical data.
Sample period varies by company from 7 to 10 years of historical data.
Key Financial Reports
Vodafone (VOD) reports on November 10 with an EPS estimate of $0.61 after a volatile 8.3% price move last quarter. Siemens (SIEGY) follows on November 12, with earnings projected at $1.59 and a mild 1.4% reaction last time. Allianz (ALIZY) is also due, expected to post $0.98 per share and typically sees subdued price moves after results. Vodafone's turnaround from a recent loss makes its report the key one to watch for a European telecom read-through.
EPS scheduled for the week of November 9 – 15, 2026 ET.
Key Macroeconomic Reports
This week, the UK will publish several key GDP reports on Thursday. Economists expect UK GDP growth to reach 0.7% quarter-over-quarter, up from 0.5% last period, and 1.9% year-over-year, ahead of 1.4% before. However, the monthly UK GDP figure is forecast to dip to -0.1%, after a 0.1% rise previously, which may signal early signs of cooling momentum. These readings will help shape expectations for Bank of England rate policy and test the economy’s resilience as inflation and borrowing costs remain elevated. Also on the calendar is Germany’s HICP inflation print on Wednesday, with a 2.8% forecast that matches the previous reading, providing an update on price pressures in Europe’s largest economy.
Macroeconomic data scheduled for the week of November 9 – 15, 2026 ET.
Top Stories
A quick look at the five stories that are set to shape next week's market sentiment. Explained with brief context highlighting why each story matters next week.
Source: CNBC — UK/Europe
Midterm elections could jolt stocks as Democrats look poised to sweep Congress
Before the November 3 midterm elections, the article argued that a Democratic sweep of Congress was not fully priced in and could create headwinds for investors. The S&P 500 had seen significant gains this year, leading analysts to question whether the typical post-midterm rally would occur. It expected a Democratic win to weigh on AI and defense stocks while boosting healthcare shares. It saw a market rally as possible if Republicans kept control, with investor sentiment cautious going into the vote.
Source: City A.M.
Bank of England hikes interest rates to four per cent as inflation set to spike
The Bank of England has increased interest rates to four per cent as part of its updated forecasts on inflation, growth, and the UK labor market. This decision comes amid rising inflation expectations, which are anticipated to spike in the near future. The rate hike reflects the central bank's efforts to address ongoing economic challenges. The move is expected to impact borrowing costs for consumers and businesses alike.
Source: City A.M.
Businesses boost jobs ‘for first time in two years’ yet interest rate hike looms
For the first time in two years, businesses have increased job growth, indicating a positive shift in the labor market. Tim Moore, a director at S&P Global, said before the November 5 decision that this growth made a Bank of England rate hike that month a near-certainty, and the bank raised its rate to 4% that day. The increase in jobs may signal a strengthening economy, but it also raises concerns about inflation and the need for tighter monetary policy. The rise may affect borrowing and spending patterns across various sectors.
Source: City A.M.
Banks battle for mortgages ahead of looming interest rate hike
Before the Bank of England raised its rate to 4% on November 5, banks intensified competition for mortgage customers. The rate hike poses challenges for borrowers, who face higher costs. The competitive mortgage market could lead to better offers for consumers, but the increase in rates may dampen overall demand. Borrowers are advised to consider their options carefully as the market adjusts to the higher rate.
Source: City A.M.
A rate rise is the right decision, but stop blaming Iran
The Bank of England's decision to raise interest rates to four per cent, which all nine members backed though one preferred 4.25 per cent, reflects serious concerns over persistent inflation. Analysts argue that the government must focus on addressing underlying cost issues rather than attributing inflation to external factors like the war in Iran. The rate hike aims to stabilize the economy amid rising inflation pressures. This decision underscores the central bank's commitment to managing inflation expectations effectively.
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Explore all past issues →The Market ThesisNext Week Outlook
Europe & UK Edition
November 8, 2026 at 9:00 AM ET
Markets Outlook for the week of November 9 – 15, 2026
UK GDP Data and Key Earnings Reports Ahead
Is the market ready for the week ahead?
UK GDP is the main catalyst this week, with quarterly growth forecast at 0.7% and annual growth expected at 1.9%. At the same time, German HICP inflation is forecast to hold at 2.8% year-over-year. Key European earnings include Vodafone, with an EPS estimate of $0.61, and Siemens, with an estimate of $1.59. Stronger GDP expectations and high-importance earnings align with recent EURO STOXX 50 declines of 0.98%. This setup signals that any disappointment in macro or earnings data keeps pressure on European equities.
Key Upcoming Events
UK Quarterly GDP Growth Rate Released
The UK’s preliminary quarterly GDP growth rate is released on November 12. The forecast is 0.7% versus the previous 0.5%. This release is important because it captures the UK’s momentum as tighter financial conditions and high rates persist in the current policy backdrop. Combined with ongoing weakness across other European markets and a cautious Bank of England, GDP performance is central for rate expectations and risk sentiment. UK rates and the FTSE 100 index are most sensitive through their direct link to the growth outlook.
UK Annual GDP Growth Rate Released
The UK annual GDP growth rate preliminary figure comes out on November 12. Consensus forecast is 1.9%, higher than the previous 1.4%. This data matters now because it reflects whether the UK is sustaining recovery amid persistent inflation and restrictive policy in the current macro regime. Alongside softening euro area indicators, this annual growth print will help clarify economic divergence or resilience. FTSE 100 equities and UK gilt yields are highly responsive via expectations for future economic strength.
German HICP Inflation Rate Published
Germany’s HICP year-over-year inflation rate is published on November 11. The forecast is 2.8%, the same as the previous 2.8%. This figure is key because Germany’s price pressures set the tone for broader eurozone inflation trends, which remain in focus in the current inflation backdrop. Combined with subdued economic activity and an ECB in wait-and-see mode, stable HICP is central for gauging policy risk. German bund yields and the DAX index are acutely sensitive through inflation’s impact on policy and sector rotation.
Vodafone Earnings Report
Vodafone (VOD) reports earnings results on November 10. The consensus EPS estimate is $0.61, rebounding from a prior loss of $0.62. This report is crucial because it reflects core telecom sector strength at a time of slowing growth and rising costs in the current earnings regime. Alongside market pressure on European equities, Vodafone’s ability to deliver earnings stability will inform sector and yield-seeking flows. Vodafone stock, the telecom sector, and the FTSE 100 index are most sensitive because of positioning around defensives.
Siemens and Allianz Earnings Reports
Siemens (SIEGY) and Allianz (ALIZY) both release financial results on November 12. Siemens’ estimate is $1.59 EPS versus the previous $1.67, while Allianz is expected at $0.98 EPS versus prior $0.75. These earnings matter now because industrial and financial sector resilience is a focus in the current mixed growth and high-rate policy backdrop across Europe. Combined with recent index declines and macro headwinds, sector results will test breadth and recovery hopes. Market sensitivity is highest for the DAX index and EURO STOXX 50 via sectoral earnings effects.
Seasonality
A brief look at the strongest seasonal patterns for the week ahead. These patterns highlight date ranges where this asset has historically shown consistent moves.
Stocks & ETFs
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Sample period varies by company from 7 to 10 years of historical data.
Commodities & Crypto
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Sample period varies by company from 7 to 10 years of historical data.
Key Financial Reports
Vodafone (VOD) reports on November 10 with an EPS estimate of $0.61 after a volatile 8.3% price move last quarter. Siemens (SIEGY) follows on November 12, with earnings projected at $1.59 and a mild 1.4% reaction last time. Allianz (ALIZY) is also due, expected to post $0.98 per share and typically sees subdued price moves after results. Vodafone's turnaround from a recent loss makes its report the key one to watch for a European telecom read-through.
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
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EPS scheduled for the week of November 9 – 15, 2026 ET.
Key Macroeconomic Reports
This week, the UK will publish several key GDP reports on Thursday. Economists expect UK GDP growth to reach 0.7% quarter-over-quarter, up from 0.5% last period, and 1.9% year-over-year, ahead of 1.4% before. However, the monthly UK GDP figure is forecast to dip to -0.1%, after a 0.1% rise previously, which may signal early signs of cooling momentum. These readings will help shape expectations for Bank of England rate policy and test the economy’s resilience as inflation and borrowing costs remain elevated. Also on the calendar is Germany’s HICP inflation print on Wednesday, with a 2.8% forecast that matches the previous reading, providing an update on price pressures in Europe’s largest economy.
Macroeconomic Data
Detailed View →Macroeconomic data scheduled for the week of November 9 – 15, 2026 ET.
Top Stories
A quick look at the five stories that are set to shape next week's market sentiment. Explained with brief context highlighting why each story matters next week.
Midterm elections could jolt stocks as Democrats look poised to sweep Congress
Before the November 3 midterm elections, the article argued that a Democratic sweep of Congress was not fully priced in and could create headwinds for investors. The S&P 500 had seen significant gains this year, leading analysts to question whether the typical post-midterm rally would occur. It expected a Democratic win to weigh on AI and defense stocks while boosting healthcare shares. It saw a market rally as possible if Republicans kept control, with investor sentiment cautious going into the vote.
Source: CNBC — UK/Europe
Bank of England hikes interest rates to four per cent as inflation set to spike
The Bank of England has increased interest rates to four per cent as part of its updated forecasts on inflation, growth, and the UK labor market. This decision comes amid rising inflation expectations, which are anticipated to spike in the near future. The rate hike reflects the central bank's efforts to address ongoing economic challenges. The move is expected to impact borrowing costs for consumers and businesses alike.
Source: City A.M.
Businesses boost jobs ‘for first time in two years’ yet interest rate hike looms
For the first time in two years, businesses have increased job growth, indicating a positive shift in the labor market. Tim Moore, a director at S&P Global, said before the November 5 decision that this growth made a Bank of England rate hike that month a near-certainty, and the bank raised its rate to 4% that day. The increase in jobs may signal a strengthening economy, but it also raises concerns about inflation and the need for tighter monetary policy. The rise may affect borrowing and spending patterns across various sectors.
Source: City A.M.
Banks battle for mortgages ahead of looming interest rate hike
Before the Bank of England raised its rate to 4% on November 5, banks intensified competition for mortgage customers. The rate hike poses challenges for borrowers, who face higher costs. The competitive mortgage market could lead to better offers for consumers, but the increase in rates may dampen overall demand. Borrowers are advised to consider their options carefully as the market adjusts to the higher rate.
Source: City A.M.
A rate rise is the right decision, but stop blaming Iran
The Bank of England's decision to raise interest rates to four per cent, which all nine members backed though one preferred 4.25 per cent, reflects serious concerns over persistent inflation. Analysts argue that the government must focus on addressing underlying cost issues rather than attributing inflation to external factors like the war in Iran. The rate hike aims to stabilize the economy amid rising inflation pressures. This decision underscores the central bank's commitment to managing inflation expectations effectively.
Source: City A.M.
Other Headlines
Enjoying The Market Thesis? Get more news and analysis with our regional editions for The United States and Asia & Pacific.
If you received this newsletter from someone else, subscribe here.
To stop receiving The Market Thesis, unsubscribe.
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