The Market ThesisNext Week Outlook
Europe & UK Edition
August 2, 2026 at 9:00 AM ET
By MacroGlide's Analysts
Markets Outlook for the week of August 3 – 9, 2026
HSBC Earnings and German Retail Sales Are Key Focus
Is the market ready for the week ahead?
Next week, the focus will be on key European economic indicators and earnings that could shape market trends. German retail sales are forecasted to decline by 0.5% month-on-month, down from a 1.1% rise previously. This decrease signals potential shifts in consumer confidence amidst ongoing inflationary pressures. Additionally, HSBC Holdings is set to report earnings on August 4, with analysts expecting an increase in EPS to 2.22 from 1.95. The outcomes of these reports may influence market positioning, particularly in consumer-related sectors and broader equity performance.
Key Upcoming Events
German Retail Sales Data Released
German retail sales data is released on August 3. It is forecasted to decline by 0.5% month-on-month, down from a revised growth of 1.1% previously. This forecast indicates weakening consumer sentiment amid ongoing inflationary pressures. A drop in retail sales can have a significant impact on overall economic growth expectations. This data is particularly relevant for consumer-related stocks and may influence their performance.
HSBC Earnings Report
HSBC Holdings plc is set to release its earnings on August 4. Analysts expect an EPS of 2.22, up from 1.95 previously reported. This improvement underscores the bank's resilience in a challenging economic environment. Strong earnings may signal confidence within the financial sector, especially amidst rising interest rates. Investors will closely monitor these results for their potential impact on bank valuations and market sentiment.
Consumer Price Index Update
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for Germany is scheduled for August 4. The consensus forecast suggests a year-on-year inflation rate of 0.5%, matching the previous month's figure. This report is critical for understanding inflation trends in the Eurozone, which influence the European Central Bank's policy decisions. Changes in inflation expectations directly affect bond yields, shaping market dynamics for government securities. Investors will react accordingly as inflation data emerges.
Industrial Production Statistics Released
Industrial production figures for Germany will be released on August 5. The market anticipates a modest increase of 0.3% month-on-month, following a previous decline of 0.1%. An uptick in industrial output could signal recovery in the manufacturing sector, essential for economic stability. If production recovers, it may bolster positive growth narratives amid ongoing inflationary concerns. This report is significant for equity markets, particularly in industrial sectors.
Eurozone Unemployment Rate Data
The unemployment rate for Germany is announced on August 6. The consensus remains unchanged at 2.9%, indicating job market stability. This report is vital in assessing economic health, especially during inflationary pressures. A steady unemployment rate supports consumer spending potential, a critical component of economic growth. Market responses may reflect shifts in consumer confidence based on the job market dynamics.
Seasonality
A brief look at the strongest seasonal patterns for the week ahead. These patterns highlight date ranges where this asset has historically shown consistent moves.
Sample period varies by company from 7 to 10 years of historical data.
Sample period varies by company from 7 to 10 years of historical data.
Key Financial Reports
Upcoming earnings reports include HSBC Holdings plc (HSBA) on August 4, with an estimated EPS of 2.22, up from the previous 1.95, reflecting strong underlying profitability. Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO) will report on August 5, with an expected EPS of 0.81, down from 1.04. Siemen AG (SIEGY) on August 6, has an estimate of 1.47, slightly above 1.43 previously. As these reports approach, market reactions will shed light on sector health amid current economic pressures.
EPS scheduled for the week of August 3 – 9, 2026 ET.
Key Macroeconomic Reports
On August 3, Germany will release retail sales data, expected to fall by 0.5% month-on-month compared to a rise of 1.1% prior. This drop may indicate shifting consumer behavior influenced by inflationary pressures. Also on August 3, the inflation rate will be released, which could shape monetary policy expectations moving forward. These data points are crucial for analyzing the health of the European economy, particularly given current rate discussions. As these figures surface, they could influence rates and equity market trends.
Macroeconomic data scheduled for the week of August 3 – 9, 2026 ET.
Top Stories
A quick look at the five stories that are set to shape next week's market sentiment. Explained with brief context highlighting why each story matters next week.
Source: City A.M.
Bank of England may set the stage for interest rate hikes this year
The Bank of England may be preparing for interest rate hikes this year, according to strategists. They suggest that Catherine Mann is likely to support an increase in rates. Additionally, Clare Lombardelli has been identified as another potential advocate for higher rates. This shift in stance could impact monetary policy and economic conditions in the UK.
Source: City A.M.
Rolls-Royce share jump as profit beats expectations
Shares of Rolls-Royce surged on Thursday after the company reported a nearly 50% increase in operating profit, reaching a total of £1.6 billion. The positive earnings led the company to raise its profit targets for the upcoming period, reflecting strong demand and operational improvements. This significant jump in profit not only boosts investor confidence but also positions Rolls-Royce favorably in the competitive aerospace and defense sectors.
Source: City A.M.
‘Difficult decisions’ – Burnham looks at new tax on workers to fund social care overhaul
Andy Burnham is considering the introduction of a new tax on workers to fund a major overhaul of social care in the region. He suggested that the funding model could follow the 'NHS principle' of collective contribution, where all citizens contribute to the system. This proposal indicates a shift towards a more unified approach to financing social care services, aiming to ensure sustainability and accessibility for all residents in need of care.
Source: Euronews — Business
EU expected to probe Balkan construction material imports over suspected Chinese tariff-dodging
The European Union is expected to investigate imports of construction materials from the Balkans over allegations of tariff evasion linked to China. There are concerns that specific open mesh fabrics may be produced using Chinese glass fiber, which is already subject to EU anti-dumping and anti-subsidy duties. This inquiry could lead to further scrutiny of trade practices in the region.
Source: Euronews — Business
Mercedes-Benz cuts sales forecast as profit rises despite China weakness
Mercedes-Benz has revised its full-year car sales forecast downward, citing weakness in the Chinese market, which is a significant area for luxury vehicle sales. Despite this adjustment, the German luxury automaker reported a 22% increase in operating profit for the second quarter, amounting to €3.5 billion. The contrasting trends highlight the challenges faced in the global market while still achieving profitability, reflecting the company's strong brand and operational efficiency.
Other Headlines
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Explore all past issues →The Market ThesisNext Week Outlook
Europe & UK Edition
August 2, 2026 at 9:00 AM ET
Markets Outlook for the week of August 3 – 9, 2026
HSBC Earnings and German Retail Sales Are Key Focus
Is the market ready for the week ahead?
Next week, the focus will be on key European economic indicators and earnings that could shape market trends. German retail sales are forecasted to decline by 0.5% month-on-month, down from a 1.1% rise previously. This decrease signals potential shifts in consumer confidence amidst ongoing inflationary pressures. Additionally, HSBC Holdings is set to report earnings on August 4, with analysts expecting an increase in EPS to 2.22 from 1.95. The outcomes of these reports may influence market positioning, particularly in consumer-related sectors and broader equity performance.
Key Upcoming Events
German Retail Sales Data Released
German retail sales data is released on August 3. It is forecasted to decline by 0.5% month-on-month, down from a revised growth of 1.1% previously. This forecast indicates weakening consumer sentiment amid ongoing inflationary pressures. A drop in retail sales can have a significant impact on overall economic growth expectations. This data is particularly relevant for consumer-related stocks and may influence their performance.
HSBC Earnings Report
HSBC Holdings plc is set to release its earnings on August 4. Analysts expect an EPS of 2.22, up from 1.95 previously reported. This improvement underscores the bank's resilience in a challenging economic environment. Strong earnings may signal confidence within the financial sector, especially amidst rising interest rates. Investors will closely monitor these results for their potential impact on bank valuations and market sentiment.
Consumer Price Index Update
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for Germany is scheduled for August 4. The consensus forecast suggests a year-on-year inflation rate of 0.5%, matching the previous month's figure. This report is critical for understanding inflation trends in the Eurozone, which influence the European Central Bank's policy decisions. Changes in inflation expectations directly affect bond yields, shaping market dynamics for government securities. Investors will react accordingly as inflation data emerges.
Industrial Production Statistics Released
Industrial production figures for Germany will be released on August 5. The market anticipates a modest increase of 0.3% month-on-month, following a previous decline of 0.1%. An uptick in industrial output could signal recovery in the manufacturing sector, essential for economic stability. If production recovers, it may bolster positive growth narratives amid ongoing inflationary concerns. This report is significant for equity markets, particularly in industrial sectors.
Eurozone Unemployment Rate Data
The unemployment rate for Germany is announced on August 6. The consensus remains unchanged at 2.9%, indicating job market stability. This report is vital in assessing economic health, especially during inflationary pressures. A steady unemployment rate supports consumer spending potential, a critical component of economic growth. Market responses may reflect shifts in consumer confidence based on the job market dynamics.
Seasonality
A brief look at the strongest seasonal patterns for the week ahead. These patterns highlight date ranges where this asset has historically shown consistent moves.
Stocks & ETFs
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Sample period varies by company from 7 to 10 years of historical data.
Commodities & Crypto
Detailed View →Return
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Sample period varies by company from 7 to 10 years of historical data.
Key Financial Reports
Upcoming earnings reports include HSBC Holdings plc (HSBA) on August 4, with an estimated EPS of 2.22, up from the previous 1.95, reflecting strong underlying profitability. Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO) will report on August 5, with an expected EPS of 0.81, down from 1.04. Siemen AG (SIEGY) on August 6, has an estimate of 1.47, slightly above 1.43 previously. As these reports approach, market reactions will shed light on sector health amid current economic pressures.
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
Detailed View →Reaction
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EPS scheduled for the week of August 3 – 9, 2026 ET.
Key Macroeconomic Reports
On August 3, Germany will release retail sales data, expected to fall by 0.5% month-on-month compared to a rise of 1.1% prior. This drop may indicate shifting consumer behavior influenced by inflationary pressures. Also on August 3, the inflation rate will be released, which could shape monetary policy expectations moving forward. These data points are crucial for analyzing the health of the European economy, particularly given current rate discussions. As these figures surface, they could influence rates and equity market trends.
Macroeconomic Data
Detailed View →Macroeconomic data scheduled for the week of August 3 – 9, 2026 ET.
Top Stories
A quick look at the five stories that are set to shape next week's market sentiment. Explained with brief context highlighting why each story matters next week.
Bank of England may set the stage for interest rate hikes this year
The Bank of England may be preparing for interest rate hikes this year, according to strategists. They suggest that Catherine Mann is likely to support an increase in rates. Additionally, Clare Lombardelli has been identified as another potential advocate for higher rates. This shift in stance could impact monetary policy and economic conditions in the UK.
Source: City A.M.
Rolls-Royce share jump as profit beats expectations
Shares of Rolls-Royce surged on Thursday after the company reported a nearly 50% increase in operating profit, reaching a total of £1.6 billion. The positive earnings led the company to raise its profit targets for the upcoming period, reflecting strong demand and operational improvements. This significant jump in profit not only boosts investor confidence but also positions Rolls-Royce favorably in the competitive aerospace and defense sectors.
Source: City A.M.
‘Difficult decisions’ – Burnham looks at new tax on workers to fund social care overhaul
Andy Burnham is considering the introduction of a new tax on workers to fund a major overhaul of social care in the region. He suggested that the funding model could follow the 'NHS principle' of collective contribution, where all citizens contribute to the system. This proposal indicates a shift towards a more unified approach to financing social care services, aiming to ensure sustainability and accessibility for all residents in need of care.
Source: City A.M.
EU expected to probe Balkan construction material imports over suspected Chinese tariff-dodging
The European Union is expected to investigate imports of construction materials from the Balkans over allegations of tariff evasion linked to China. There are concerns that specific open mesh fabrics may be produced using Chinese glass fiber, which is already subject to EU anti-dumping and anti-subsidy duties. This inquiry could lead to further scrutiny of trade practices in the region.
Source: Euronews — Business
Mercedes-Benz cuts sales forecast as profit rises despite China weakness
Mercedes-Benz has revised its full-year car sales forecast downward, citing weakness in the Chinese market, which is a significant area for luxury vehicle sales. Despite this adjustment, the German luxury automaker reported a 22% increase in operating profit for the second quarter, amounting to €3.5 billion. The contrasting trends highlight the challenges faced in the global market while still achieving profitability, reflecting the company's strong brand and operational efficiency.
Source: Euronews — Business
Other Headlines
Bank of England holds rates amid uncertainty over energy shock
US poised to impose new Russia sanctions package
Senators vote to advance Russia sanctions bill in Graham’s name
‘It’s going to impact work’: Lloyds to cut £2bn in costs with AI
BoE expected to hold rates despite jump in oil prices
Zelenskyy reports positive Oval Office meeting as Trump shifts towards Ukraine
‘A disaster for America First’: Trump allies fear Netanyahu meeting will pull US deeper into war with Iran
Unilever turns to ‘avocado mayonnaise’ as food weighs on profit ahead of spin-off
Apple shares fall despite record revenue as outlook disappoints
Greek shipping carve-out on Russia sanctions prompts EU rethink
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