The Market ThesisWeekly Summary
Asia & Pacific Edition
October 31, 2026 at 9:00 AM ET
By MacroGlide's Analysts
Markets Recap for the week of October 26 – November 1, 2026
China's Factory Activity Contracts, Tech Stocks Slide
Weekly Top Trends
China's official NBS Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3, indicating contraction in the sector. The Hang Seng Index gained 0.87% while the CSI 300 declined, a mixed result across Chinese equities for the week. Slower factory growth raised fresh questions about demand across Asia’s supply chains.
Japan's central bank kept the policy rate at 1.25% as inflation moved up to its 2% target. The Nikkei 225 advanced 0.95% after the decision, while the TOPIX stayed nearly flat. Shifts in the Bank of Japan’s stance are now more closely watched as rising prices test the limits of easy policy.
Tech stocks faced volatility after Intel shares dropped 30% during the week. Sector weakness pulled the broader market lower, including a 1.61% decline in Alibaba and a 2.99% drop in Sony. Pressure on major Asian technology names highlighted investor focus on growth risks within the sector.
Benchmark Moves
The Hang Seng Index rose 0.87% for the week, while China's National Bureau of Statistics reported the October NBS Manufacturing PMI at 49.3, showing factory activity contracted for the third time in four months. Major tech names such as Alibaba slipped 1.61% for the week amid broader concerns over slower industrial demand. Meanwhile, WTI crude oil advanced 0.82% to $104.12. The week's cross-asset moves reflect a market weighing growth and inflation risks across assets heading into the new week.
Market data as of Oct 30, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET.
Market data as of Oct 30, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET.
Market data as of Oct 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM ET.
Key Financial Reports
This week saw a mixed pattern in earnings reports, with only one company reporting below expectations. Shinhan Financial Group Co., Ltd. (SHG) delivered an EPS of $2.33, which was 7.54% lower than the estimate of $2.52. Despite strong capital levels and improved profitability ratios, management acknowledged challenges from declining noninterest income. Overall, these results from the financial sector point to ongoing challenges, while showing some resilience amid broader economic concerns.
EPS reported the week of October 26 – November 1, 2026 ET. Figures use each company's reported basis.
Key Macroeconomic Reports
This week, Asia's macro environment points to a growing concern over economic activity. In China, the NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI, which covers services and construction, fell to 49.7, down from 50.2, with services at 50.0 and construction at 48.0, adding to worries from the manufacturing sector. Additionally, Japan's Consumer Confidence index dropped to 35 in October, lower than the previous reading of 35.4, reflecting weaker household expectations. These trends suggest that the economic outlook may lead to cautious sentiment from policymakers, potentially influencing future monetary stances in the region.
Macroeconomic data released the week of October 26 – November 1, 2026 ET.
Weekly Reflection
What was the main outcome of the week?
China’s October PMIs, published on Saturday after the week’s close, pointed to weaker activity. The NBS Manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.3 and the Non-Manufacturing PMI, which covers services and construction, slipped to 49.7, both falling below the 50 mark and pointing to a loss of momentum in China’s economy. They came too late to move the week's trading and belong to the picture for the week ahead.
What do we infer from the market behavior?
Index performance in Asia showed increased volatility and signs of sector rotation. While the Nikkei 225 and Hang Seng both notched modest gains, heavyweight stocks like Sony and Alibaba fell 2.99% and 1.61% from weaker global demand signals. Participants shifted exposures away from growth and cyclical shares and favored more defensive allocations during the week.
What the week revealed about the current market state?
The week highlighted a selective market with narrow leadership and divergence between benchmarks and single stocks. Earnings results were mixed, as only Shinhan Financial Group Co., Ltd. missed estimates (reporting $2.33 EPS vs. a $2.52 consensus), suggesting localized rather than sector-wide weakness. Together with downbeat macro data from Australia, Japan, and China, the region’s equity landscape appears sensitive to any fresh growth shocks.
How these insights shape the forward picture?
Looking ahead, regional investors will need to monitor macro trends closely, as the contraction in China’s factory and non-manufacturing activity signals potential headwinds. Banks in Australia and Japan are maintaining steady policy rates amid signs of sticky inflation and softer consumer confidence, which will shape rate and sector positioning. Near-term performance will depend on whether activity and earnings data show improvement or deepen pressures across Asia.
Top Stories
A quick look at the five stories that shaped this week's market sentiment. Explained with brief context highlighting why each story mattered this week.
Source: Australian Financial Review
ASX to fall after oil resurgence ahead of huge week for investors
The ASX is expected to open lower on Monday, with futures indicating a 43-point drop, or 0.5%, to 8774. This comes after a significant rise in oil prices on Friday and a weak session on Wall Street, where the Nasdaq 100 experienced its worst two-week drop since April last year. Investors are preparing for a week filled with important events, including key inflation data in Australia and a US interest rate decision, alongside major tech earnings reports.
Source: Nikkei Asia
Trading halted in Brazil as stocks sink following Lula reelection
Brazil's stock exchange halted trading on Monday after the benchmark Ibovespa index fell 10%, triggering an automatic pause. This decline followed the re-election of President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, which reversed earlier bullish sentiment. The Brazilian real weakened approximately 12% against the U.S. dollar, while Bovespa stock index futures dropped nearly 15%. The selloff extended to Brazil's international bonds, with the 2056 maturity down nearly 3 cents, as investor uncertainty grew.
Source: Nikkei Asia
SK Hynix quarterly profit soars sevenfold to $63bn on strong memory demand
SK Hynix reported a third-quarter operating profit of 83.3 trillion won ($62.9 billion), a more than sevenfold increase from the previous year. This surge is attributed to strong demand for advanced memory chips, particularly for artificial intelligence applications. Analysts suggest that the company's earnings have not yet peaked and expect continued growth at least through next year as global investments in AI infrastructure rise.
Source: Australian Financial Review
Binance estimates $8.9b hacked in crypto’s biggest heist
Binance, the largest crypto exchange, has suspended all deposits and withdrawals following what is described as the biggest hack in crypto history, first estimated at $8.9 billion and since put by the company at about $6.3 billion, with about $3 billion frozen so far. Founder Changpeng Zhao stated that he expects all user funds to be fully covered. The exchange is currently investigating the incident, which has raised significant concerns within the cryptocurrency industry.
Source: CNBC — Asia Pacific
China industrial profits post strongest growth in three months as tech boom widens economic divide
China's industrial profits rose 14.4% in September compared to the previous year, marking the strongest growth since June. For the first nine months of 2026, profits increased by 15.5%, driven by a boom in AI-related manufacturing despite weak domestic demand. The growth in high-tech sectors, particularly electronics and advanced technology, has outperformed traditional consumer industries. However, overall consumption remains weak, with retail sales only growing 1.1% in September.
Other Headlines
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Explore all past issues →The Market ThesisWeekly Summary
Asia & Pacific Edition
October 31, 2026 at 9:00 AM ET
Markets Recap for the week of October 26 – November 1, 2026
China's Factory Activity Contracts, Tech Stocks Slide
Weekly Top Trends
China's official NBS Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3, indicating contraction in the sector. The Hang Seng Index gained 0.87% while the CSI 300 declined, a mixed result across Chinese equities for the week. Slower factory growth raised fresh questions about demand across Asia’s supply chains.
Japan's central bank kept the policy rate at 1.25% as inflation moved up to its 2% target. The Nikkei 225 advanced 0.95% after the decision, while the TOPIX stayed nearly flat. Shifts in the Bank of Japan’s stance are now more closely watched as rising prices test the limits of easy policy.
Tech stocks faced volatility after Intel shares dropped 30% during the week. Sector weakness pulled the broader market lower, including a 1.61% decline in Alibaba and a 2.99% drop in Sony. Pressure on major Asian technology names highlighted investor focus on growth risks within the sector.
Benchmark Moves
The Hang Seng Index rose 0.87% for the week, while China's National Bureau of Statistics reported the October NBS Manufacturing PMI at 49.3, showing factory activity contracted for the third time in four months. Major tech names such as Alibaba slipped 1.61% for the week amid broader concerns over slower industrial demand. Meanwhile, WTI crude oil advanced 0.82% to $104.12. The week's cross-asset moves reflect a market weighing growth and inflation risks across assets heading into the new week.
Indexes
Detailed View →Market data as of Oct 30, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET.
Stocks
Detailed View →Market data as of Oct 30, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET.
Commodities & Crypto
Detailed View →Market data as of Oct 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM ET.
Key Financial Reports
This week saw a mixed pattern in earnings reports, with only one company reporting below expectations. Shinhan Financial Group Co., Ltd. (SHG) delivered an EPS of $2.33, which was 7.54% lower than the estimate of $2.52. Despite strong capital levels and improved profitability ratios, management acknowledged challenges from declining noninterest income. Overall, these results from the financial sector point to ongoing challenges, while showing some resilience amid broader economic concerns.
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
Detailed View →EPS reported the week of October 26 – November 1, 2026 ET. Figures use each company's reported basis.
Key Macroeconomic Reports
This week, Asia's macro environment points to a growing concern over economic activity. In China, the NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI, which covers services and construction, fell to 49.7, down from 50.2, with services at 50.0 and construction at 48.0, adding to worries from the manufacturing sector. Additionally, Japan's Consumer Confidence index dropped to 35 in October, lower than the previous reading of 35.4, reflecting weaker household expectations. These trends suggest that the economic outlook may lead to cautious sentiment from policymakers, potentially influencing future monetary stances in the region.
Macroeconomic Data
Detailed View →Macroeconomic data released the week of October 26 – November 1, 2026 ET.
Weekly Reflection
What was the main outcome of the week?
China’s October PMIs, published on Saturday after the week’s close, pointed to weaker activity. The NBS Manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.3 and the Non-Manufacturing PMI, which covers services and construction, slipped to 49.7, both falling below the 50 mark and pointing to a loss of momentum in China’s economy. They came too late to move the week's trading and belong to the picture for the week ahead.
What do we infer from the market behavior?
Index performance in Asia showed increased volatility and signs of sector rotation. While the Nikkei 225 and Hang Seng both notched modest gains, heavyweight stocks like Sony and Alibaba fell 2.99% and 1.61% from weaker global demand signals. Participants shifted exposures away from growth and cyclical shares and favored more defensive allocations during the week.
What the week revealed about the current market state?
The week highlighted a selective market with narrow leadership and divergence between benchmarks and single stocks. Earnings results were mixed, as only Shinhan Financial Group Co., Ltd. missed estimates (reporting $2.33 EPS vs. a $2.52 consensus), suggesting localized rather than sector-wide weakness. Together with downbeat macro data from Australia, Japan, and China, the region’s equity landscape appears sensitive to any fresh growth shocks.
How these insights shape the forward picture?
Looking ahead, regional investors will need to monitor macro trends closely, as the contraction in China’s factory and non-manufacturing activity signals potential headwinds. Banks in Australia and Japan are maintaining steady policy rates amid signs of sticky inflation and softer consumer confidence, which will shape rate and sector positioning. Near-term performance will depend on whether activity and earnings data show improvement or deepen pressures across Asia.
Top Stories
A quick look at the five stories that shaped this week's market sentiment. Explained with brief context highlighting why each story mattered this week.
ASX to fall after oil resurgence ahead of huge week for investors
The ASX is expected to open lower on Monday, with futures indicating a 43-point drop, or 0.5%, to 8774. This comes after a significant rise in oil prices on Friday and a weak session on Wall Street, where the Nasdaq 100 experienced its worst two-week drop since April last year. Investors are preparing for a week filled with important events, including key inflation data in Australia and a US interest rate decision, alongside major tech earnings reports.
Source: Australian Financial Review
Trading halted in Brazil as stocks sink following Lula reelection
Brazil's stock exchange halted trading on Monday after the benchmark Ibovespa index fell 10%, triggering an automatic pause. This decline followed the re-election of President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, which reversed earlier bullish sentiment. The Brazilian real weakened approximately 12% against the U.S. dollar, while Bovespa stock index futures dropped nearly 15%. The selloff extended to Brazil's international bonds, with the 2056 maturity down nearly 3 cents, as investor uncertainty grew.
Source: Nikkei Asia
SK Hynix quarterly profit soars sevenfold to $63bn on strong memory demand
SK Hynix reported a third-quarter operating profit of 83.3 trillion won ($62.9 billion), a more than sevenfold increase from the previous year. This surge is attributed to strong demand for advanced memory chips, particularly for artificial intelligence applications. Analysts suggest that the company's earnings have not yet peaked and expect continued growth at least through next year as global investments in AI infrastructure rise.
Source: Nikkei Asia
Binance estimates $8.9b hacked in crypto’s biggest heist
Binance, the largest crypto exchange, has suspended all deposits and withdrawals following what is described as the biggest hack in crypto history, first estimated at $8.9 billion and since put by the company at about $6.3 billion, with about $3 billion frozen so far. Founder Changpeng Zhao stated that he expects all user funds to be fully covered. The exchange is currently investigating the incident, which has raised significant concerns within the cryptocurrency industry.
Source: Australian Financial Review
China industrial profits post strongest growth in three months as tech boom widens economic divide
China's industrial profits rose 14.4% in September compared to the previous year, marking the strongest growth since June. For the first nine months of 2026, profits increased by 15.5%, driven by a boom in AI-related manufacturing despite weak domestic demand. The growth in high-tech sectors, particularly electronics and advanced technology, has outperformed traditional consumer industries. However, overall consumption remains weak, with retail sales only growing 1.1% in September.
Source: CNBC — Asia Pacific
Other Headlines
Bonds and Warren Buffett’s Berkshire are flashing a warning to markets
Meta- and Google-backed Jio Platforms’ shares soar over 21% on trading debut after record IPO
Here’s how investors are hedging the US midterm elections
BOJ holds rates as underlying inflation aligns with 2% target for first time since 2013
Intel shares sink more than 20% as PC slowdown stretches into 2027
Luxury groups’ value drops by €250bn as Chinese consumer demand fades
Inflation spike pushes RBA on rates, Chalmers on spending cuts
Tencent, Visa deepen payments push in China after regulatory green light
Microsoft offers buyouts to 60,000 employees as AI spending mounts
Bank of Japan says 2% inflation goal reached after decades of deflation
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