The Market ThesisWeekly Summary
Asia & Pacific Edition
October 24, 2026 at 9:00 AM ET
By MacroGlide's Analysts
Markets Recap for the week of October 19 – 25, 2026
Oil Prices Spike, Weighing on Asian Markets This Week
Weekly Top Trends
WTI crude oil prices rose 4.29% this week as geopolitical risks gained attention. The Nikkei 225 and Hang Seng Index each sank 4.03%, with energy-linked costs weighing on regional equities. The higher costs from rising oil prices fed directly into weaker stock performance across Asia.
Japan’s inflation rate was reported at 2.1% for September, up from 1.9% previously. The TOPIX index dropped 2.46% during the week as traders reacted to the stronger inflation reading. The increase in consumer prices renewed scrutiny of Japan’s monetary policy outlook and pressured domestic equities.
China posted several positive macro readings, led by a 5.5% increase in industrial production and 4.5% GDP growth. Retail sales also rose 1.1%, pointing to improving domestic demand. These stronger Chinese data points helped offset some of the downward momentum seen in other Asian markets.
Benchmark Moves
Asian equity benchmarks declined sharply this week as WTI crude oil jumped 4.29% to $103.27 per barrel, following updates on global crude shipments and reported supply shifts before Friday. The Nikkei 225 dropped 4.03% to 62,692.9, as higher oil prices filtered through to manufacturing and transport input costs. Gold fell 4.14% to $4,007.9, reflecting capital shifts and increased volatility across commodities. The rise in energy costs combined with cross-asset moves signals the broad market may see continued repricing ahead.
Market data as of Oct 23, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET.
Market data as of Oct 23, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET.
Market data as of Oct 23, 2026 at 5:00 PM ET.
Key Financial Reports
This week’s Asian earnings leaned positive, with most reporting companies topping or closely matching expectations. Karooooo Ltd. (KARO) delivered EPS of 0.5653 just below its 0.57 estimate, as record subscriber growth and strong demand for its video and Cartrack Tag offerings were dampened by foreign exchange headwinds and heavy IoT investment that lowered quarterly free cash flow. Woori Financial Group Inc. (WF) reported an EPS of 3.007, citing improved profitability and noninterest income, industry-leading capital, and lower credit costs, even as card delinquency and nonperforming loan rates edged up. Overall, this signals that robust core business momentum in financials contrasts with margin pressure from cost headwinds in tech and services.
EPS reported the week of October 19 – 25, 2026 ET. Figures use each company's reported basis.
Key Macroeconomic Reports
Asia showed continued macro resilience this week, with key data from China and Japan coming in stronger than before. China’s industrial production rose by 5.5% in September, beating the forecast of 5.4% and accelerating from 5.2% in August. Retail sales in China also gained 1.1%, more than doubling the previous month’s 0.4%, while Japan’s inflation rate climbed to 2.1% from 1.9%. These signals of firm output and rising prices suggest regional central banks may hold off on policy easing, keeping monetary conditions tighter for now.
Macroeconomic data released October 18 – 22, 2026 ET.
Weekly Reflection
What was the main outcome of the week?
Rising oil prices were the key driver for Asian markets this week, with WTI crude up 4.29% as geopolitical developments impacted supply expectations. This came alongside crucial macro data from China, where industrial production rose 5.5% year over year and GDP increased by 4.5%. Despite this, major Asian equity indexes like the Nikkei 225 and Hang Seng Index fell over 4%, as the oil move pressured sentiment and raised questions about corporate margins.
What do we infer from the market behavior?
The steep drops in both the Nikkei 225 and Hang Seng Index point to risk-off positioning in response to higher energy costs. Despite stronger-than-expected Chinese industrial and GDP readings, key Asian equity benchmarks sold off as energy-related expenses and margin pressures dominated. This signals that rising input costs from commodities outweighed positive macro news, leading to broad equity weakness.
What the week revealed about the current market state?
The market state shows divergence between improving macro readings and fragile risk appetite. Stronger data from China-including retail sales rising 1.1% year over year-was not enough to stabilize equities amid inflation data from Japan showing a jump to 2.1%. This mix highlights the vulnerability of Asian stocks to swings in global energy markets, even when domestic economic reports provide support.
How these insights shape the forward picture?
Going forward, the focus is now on energy prices and how sustained cost increases might impact inflation readings and policy responses across Asia. Investors will be watching Japan’s inflation trend and upcoming corporate earnings to gauge lasting margin pressure. Further moves in oil or further macro surprises stand to drive sector rotation and set the tone for risk-taking.
Top Stories
A quick look at the five stories that shaped this week's market sentiment. Explained with brief context highlighting why each story mattered this week.
Source: Australian Financial Review
EQT set to sweep Cleanaway Waste Management off the ASX with $9.4b bid
EQT has reached an agreement to acquire Cleanaway Waste Management for A$9.3 billion, marking the end of the company's 21-year presence on the ASX. The deal was approved by EQT's investment committee despite a significant drop in Cleanaway's share price, which raised investor concerns about the bid's viability. The acquisition was announced on Monday, October 19. This move is part of a larger trend, as several companies are anticipated to leave the Australian stock market.
Source: CNBC — Asia Pacific
Bank Indonesia faces mounting pressure to hike after MSCI threat fuels market rout
Bank Indonesia is under increasing pressure to raise interest rates as economists adjust their forecasts following MSCI's warning of a potential downgrade for Indonesia's stock market. Citibank now predicts a pre-emptive 50 basis-point increase to 6.25%, while others expect a smaller 25 basis-point hike to 6%. The Jakarta Composite Index experienced its worst two-day sell-off, and the rupiah weakened to 18,030 per dollar. Not raising rates could undermine investor confidence and weaken the currency further.
Source: CNBC — Asia Pacific
Australian data center operator NextDC's shares plunge 40% after it slashes earnings forecast
NextDC's shares fell 39.5% after the company revised its earnings forecast downward for fiscal 2027, citing power supply delays at its Melbourne facility. The revised revenue guidance is now between A$475 million and A$500 million, down from A$615 million to A$640 million. The delays are attributed to community opposition and safety concerns, with Jemena not expecting to resume work until February 2027. NextDC has seen its shares drop for seven consecutive weeks.
Source: Australian Financial Review
‘Fear and confusion’ just seized global markets. Here’s why
Investors and central bankers are grappling with heightened emotions of fear and confusion in global markets, as traditional expectations of rational behavior from leaders falter. Macquarie strategist Viktor Shvets highlights these sentiments as dominating discussions among investors. The current climate reflects a growing uncertainty regarding responses to various emerging risks. This shift in market psychology raises concerns about the stability and predictability of financial markets.
Source: CNBC — Asia Pacific
Volvo Cars plunges 24% as CEO says China sales slump came 'faster than we thought'
Volvo Cars announced plans to cut 2,500 jobs after a significant decline in sales in China, leading to a third-quarter operating loss of 5.6 billion Swedish kronor ($563.7 million). The company reported a nearly 50% drop in revenues in China, attributed to intense competition from domestic brands. CEO Håkan Samuelsson said the change in China's market came "faster than we thought." The company aims to reduce costs by 5 billion Swedish kronor as it adapts to the changing market landscape.
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Explore all past issues →The Market ThesisWeekly Summary
Asia & Pacific Edition
October 24, 2026 at 9:00 AM ET
Markets Recap for the week of October 19 – 25, 2026
Oil Prices Spike, Weighing on Asian Markets This Week
Weekly Top Trends
WTI crude oil prices rose 4.29% this week as geopolitical risks gained attention. The Nikkei 225 and Hang Seng Index each sank 4.03%, with energy-linked costs weighing on regional equities. The higher costs from rising oil prices fed directly into weaker stock performance across Asia.
Japan’s inflation rate was reported at 2.1% for September, up from 1.9% previously. The TOPIX index dropped 2.46% during the week as traders reacted to the stronger inflation reading. The increase in consumer prices renewed scrutiny of Japan’s monetary policy outlook and pressured domestic equities.
China posted several positive macro readings, led by a 5.5% increase in industrial production and 4.5% GDP growth. Retail sales also rose 1.1%, pointing to improving domestic demand. These stronger Chinese data points helped offset some of the downward momentum seen in other Asian markets.
Benchmark Moves
Asian equity benchmarks declined sharply this week as WTI crude oil jumped 4.29% to $103.27 per barrel, following updates on global crude shipments and reported supply shifts before Friday. The Nikkei 225 dropped 4.03% to 62,692.9, as higher oil prices filtered through to manufacturing and transport input costs. Gold fell 4.14% to $4,007.9, reflecting capital shifts and increased volatility across commodities. The rise in energy costs combined with cross-asset moves signals the broad market may see continued repricing ahead.
Indexes
Detailed View →Market data as of Oct 23, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET.
Stocks
Detailed View →Market data as of Oct 23, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET.
Commodities & Crypto
Detailed View →Market data as of Oct 23, 2026 at 5:00 PM ET.
Key Financial Reports
This week’s Asian earnings leaned positive, with most reporting companies topping or closely matching expectations. Karooooo Ltd. (KARO) delivered EPS of 0.5653 just below its 0.57 estimate, as record subscriber growth and strong demand for its video and Cartrack Tag offerings were dampened by foreign exchange headwinds and heavy IoT investment that lowered quarterly free cash flow. Woori Financial Group Inc. (WF) reported an EPS of 3.007, citing improved profitability and noninterest income, industry-leading capital, and lower credit costs, even as card delinquency and nonperforming loan rates edged up. Overall, this signals that robust core business momentum in financials contrasts with margin pressure from cost headwinds in tech and services.
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
Detailed View →EPS reported the week of October 19 – 25, 2026 ET. Figures use each company's reported basis.
Key Macroeconomic Reports
Asia showed continued macro resilience this week, with key data from China and Japan coming in stronger than before. China’s industrial production rose by 5.5% in September, beating the forecast of 5.4% and accelerating from 5.2% in August. Retail sales in China also gained 1.1%, more than doubling the previous month’s 0.4%, while Japan’s inflation rate climbed to 2.1% from 1.9%. These signals of firm output and rising prices suggest regional central banks may hold off on policy easing, keeping monetary conditions tighter for now.
Macroeconomic Data
Detailed View →Macroeconomic data released October 18 – 22, 2026 ET.
Weekly Reflection
What was the main outcome of the week?
Rising oil prices were the key driver for Asian markets this week, with WTI crude up 4.29% as geopolitical developments impacted supply expectations. This came alongside crucial macro data from China, where industrial production rose 5.5% year over year and GDP increased by 4.5%. Despite this, major Asian equity indexes like the Nikkei 225 and Hang Seng Index fell over 4%, as the oil move pressured sentiment and raised questions about corporate margins.
What do we infer from the market behavior?
The steep drops in both the Nikkei 225 and Hang Seng Index point to risk-off positioning in response to higher energy costs. Despite stronger-than-expected Chinese industrial and GDP readings, key Asian equity benchmarks sold off as energy-related expenses and margin pressures dominated. This signals that rising input costs from commodities outweighed positive macro news, leading to broad equity weakness.
What the week revealed about the current market state?
The market state shows divergence between improving macro readings and fragile risk appetite. Stronger data from China-including retail sales rising 1.1% year over year-was not enough to stabilize equities amid inflation data from Japan showing a jump to 2.1%. This mix highlights the vulnerability of Asian stocks to swings in global energy markets, even when domestic economic reports provide support.
How these insights shape the forward picture?
Going forward, the focus is now on energy prices and how sustained cost increases might impact inflation readings and policy responses across Asia. Investors will be watching Japan’s inflation trend and upcoming corporate earnings to gauge lasting margin pressure. Further moves in oil or further macro surprises stand to drive sector rotation and set the tone for risk-taking.
Top Stories
A quick look at the five stories that shaped this week's market sentiment. Explained with brief context highlighting why each story mattered this week.
EQT set to sweep Cleanaway Waste Management off the ASX with $9.4b bid
EQT has reached an agreement to acquire Cleanaway Waste Management for A$9.3 billion, marking the end of the company's 21-year presence on the ASX. The deal was approved by EQT's investment committee despite a significant drop in Cleanaway's share price, which raised investor concerns about the bid's viability. The acquisition was announced on Monday, October 19. This move is part of a larger trend, as several companies are anticipated to leave the Australian stock market.
Source: Australian Financial Review
Bank Indonesia faces mounting pressure to hike after MSCI threat fuels market rout
Bank Indonesia is under increasing pressure to raise interest rates as economists adjust their forecasts following MSCI's warning of a potential downgrade for Indonesia's stock market. Citibank now predicts a pre-emptive 50 basis-point increase to 6.25%, while others expect a smaller 25 basis-point hike to 6%. The Jakarta Composite Index experienced its worst two-day sell-off, and the rupiah weakened to 18,030 per dollar. Not raising rates could undermine investor confidence and weaken the currency further.
Source: CNBC — Asia Pacific
Australian data center operator NextDC's shares plunge 40% after it slashes earnings forecast
NextDC's shares fell 39.5% after the company revised its earnings forecast downward for fiscal 2027, citing power supply delays at its Melbourne facility. The revised revenue guidance is now between A$475 million and A$500 million, down from A$615 million to A$640 million. The delays are attributed to community opposition and safety concerns, with Jemena not expecting to resume work until February 2027. NextDC has seen its shares drop for seven consecutive weeks.
Source: CNBC — Asia Pacific
‘Fear and confusion’ just seized global markets. Here’s why
Investors and central bankers are grappling with heightened emotions of fear and confusion in global markets, as traditional expectations of rational behavior from leaders falter. Macquarie strategist Viktor Shvets highlights these sentiments as dominating discussions among investors. The current climate reflects a growing uncertainty regarding responses to various emerging risks. This shift in market psychology raises concerns about the stability and predictability of financial markets.
Source: Australian Financial Review
Volvo Cars plunges 24% as CEO says China sales slump came 'faster than we thought'
Volvo Cars announced plans to cut 2,500 jobs after a significant decline in sales in China, leading to a third-quarter operating loss of 5.6 billion Swedish kronor ($563.7 million). The company reported a nearly 50% drop in revenues in China, attributed to intense competition from domestic brands. CEO Håkan Samuelsson said the change in China's market came "faster than we thought." The company aims to reduce costs by 5 billion Swedish kronor as it adapts to the changing market landscape.
Source: CNBC — Asia Pacific
Other Headlines
Enjoying The Market Thesis? Get more news and analysis with our regional editions for The United States and Europe & UK.
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