The Market ThesisNext Week Outlook
Asia & Pacific Edition
October 25, 2026 at 9:00 AM ET
By MacroGlide's Analysts
Markets Outlook for the week of October 26 – November 1, 2026
Australia's Inflation Data and Earnings Reports Loom Large
Is the market ready for the week ahead?
Australia’s Consumer Price Index is the main event for Asia next week, with CPI forecast to rise to 4.2% year-over-year from 4.0% when released Tuesday evening New York time. The Trimmed Mean CPI will also update, having previously stood at 3.6%, shaping expectations for Reserve Bank policy and the Australian dollar. Japan’s October consumer confidence is seen easing to 35.1, with Tokyo CPI previously at 2.7%, pointing to mixed signals on growth and inflation in the region. Key earnings include Shinhan Financial Group with an estimated EPS of 2.44, below its previous quarter. Together, firm inflation forecasts in Australia and cautious earnings signals leave pressure on Asian equities and FX to adjust to tighter rate and growth conditions.
Key Upcoming Events
Australia CPI Data Released
Australia's Consumer Price Index (CPI) is released on October 27. Forecast is 4.2% versus previous 4.0%. This release matters because inflation pressure remains high in Australia with headline and trimmed mean CPI both above the Reserve Bank's target, raising concern in the current policy backdrop. Alongside tight labor markets and a volatile Australian dollar, this report will shape expectations for the path of monetary policy and local funding costs. The Australian dollar and Australian sovereign yields are most sensitive, as higher-than-expected CPI prints tend to drive rate expectations and cross-asset volatility.
RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand announces its interest rate decision on October 27. Consensus is for a rise to 3.00% from previous 2.75%. This meeting is key because current inflation is above target and growth in New Zealand has softened ahead of this policy decision. In the current policy regime, a hike and accompanying statement will signal how the RBNZ weighs imported inflation versus slow domestic demand. New Zealand dollar and regional FX rates are sensitive via the rates channel, as tighter policy can lift NZD and affect risk appetite across Asia-Pacific currencies.
Japan Consumer Confidence Release
Japan's October consumer confidence is released on October 29. Forecast is 35.1, compared to previous 35.4. This report matters because weak sentiment persists in Japan as real incomes lag inflation and retail activity stays subdued. Against the current growth backdrop and persistent headline inflation, this sentiment gauge will feed into the market's view on the strength of domestic demand and potential policy signals from the Bank of Japan. Japanese stocks and yen rates are sensitive, as shifts in consumer confidence drive domestic allocation and BOJ policy expectations.
Shinhan Financial Group Earnings Report
Shinhan Financial Group reports earnings on October 27. Consensus estimate is EPS 2.44 versus previous 2.50, signaling lower profitability. This result matters because financials face pressure as Asia transitions from ultra-loose policy to a normalization regime, with compressed lending margins now in focus. Combined with the current macro backdrop, Shinhan’s numbers help signal sector health and breadth of bank earnings across Korea and the region. Korean bank stocks and sector index moves are sensitive, as earnings set the tone for financial equity valuations and credit spreads.
Seasonality
A brief look at the strongest seasonal patterns for the week ahead. These patterns highlight date ranges where this asset has historically shown consistent moves.
Sample period varies by company from 7 to 10 years of historical data.
Sample period varies by company from 7 to 10 years of historical data.
Key Financial Reports
Key earnings reports are on the horizon, with Shinhan Financial Group (SHG) expected to report an EPS of 2.44, down from 2.50 previously. Its results will be closely watched as they reflect broader economic conditions in the financial sector. The market's reaction to these earnings could set the tone for trading in the coming weeks.
EPS scheduled for the week of October 26 – November 1, 2026 ET.
Key Macroeconomic Reports
Australia's inflation data is set to be released on October 27, with the CPI forecasted to rise to 4.2% from 4.0%. This release is significant as it may influence the Reserve Bank's policy stance amid rising costs. Additionally, the trimmed mean CPI is expected to show similar trends, reflecting underlying inflation pressures. These figures will be critical for assessing the economic outlook and could impact interest rate expectations, particularly in the Australian dollar and bond markets.
Macroeconomic data scheduled on October 25, 2026 ET.
Top Stories
A quick look at the five stories that are set to shape next week's market sentiment. Explained with brief context highlighting why each story matters next week.
Source: Australian Financial Review
ASX to fall after oil resurgence ahead of huge week for investors
The ASX is expected to open lower on Monday, with futures for the S & P/ASX 200 Index indicating a 43-point drop, or 0.5 percent, to 8774. This follows a rise in oil prices on Friday and a weak session on Wall Street, where the Nasdaq 100 experienced its worst two-week drop since April of the previous year. Investors are preparing for significant market events, including key inflation data in Australia and a US interest rate decision, alongside earnings reports from major tech companies.
Source: Australian Financial Review
Government spending ‘definitely’ part of economic outlook: RBA
Reserve Bank chief economist Sarah Hunter stated that both state and federal government spending are contributing to capacity pressures in the economy. This acknowledgment comes just days before inflation data is expected, which could lead to a fifth interest rate rise this year. In a televised interview, Hunter noted that increased government spending is driving domestic economic demand, which, combined with recent oil price shocks, has raised costs across the economy.
Source: Australian Financial Review
NDIS blowouts lead $145b surge in unexpected spending
The Albanese government has encountered $145 billion in spending overruns since taking office, largely due to cost overruns in the National Disability Insurance Scheme. This situation has raised concerns among economists about the government's ability to maintain budget restraint. The analysis, conducted by HSBC chief economist Paul Bloxham, comes as pressure mounts on Treasurer Jim Chalmers to implement significant cuts in the mid-year budget update to help reduce inflation.
Source: CNBC — Asia Pacific
Australian data center operator NextDC's shares plunge 40% after it slashes earnings forecast
NextDC's shares fell by 41.7% after the company revised its annual earnings forecast downward due to power supply delays at its Melbourne facility. The new revenue guidance for fiscal 2027 is set between $475 million Australian dollars and A$500 million, down from the previous forecast of A$615 million to A$640 million. The delays are attributed to community opposition to infrastructure upgrades, with Jemena indicating that work will not resume before February 2027.
Source: Australian Financial Review
NextDC slashes earnings forecast, triggering 40pc share plunge
NextDC announced plans to consider asset sales and spending cuts after it warned investors of missing earnings forecasts, leading to a 41.7% drop in its share price to a nine-year low. The company, Australia's third-largest data center operator, attributed the decline to delays in expansion at its Melbourne site due to community backlash against new power infrastructure. This situation resulted in a loss of A$3 billion in market value, highlighting challenges in the data center sector.
Other Headlines
Enjoying The Market Thesis? Get more news and analysis with our regional editions for The United States and Europe & UK.
If you received this newsletter from someone else, subscribe here.
To stop receiving The Market Thesis, unsubscribe.
Follow Us
Explore all our Newsletters at MacroGlide.com
Explore all past issues →The Market ThesisNext Week Outlook
Asia & Pacific Edition
October 25, 2026 at 9:00 AM ET
Markets Outlook for the week of October 26 – November 1, 2026
Australia's Inflation Data and Earnings Reports Loom Large
Is the market ready for the week ahead?
Australia’s Consumer Price Index is the main event for Asia next week, with CPI forecast to rise to 4.2% year-over-year from 4.0% when released Tuesday evening New York time. The Trimmed Mean CPI will also update, having previously stood at 3.6%, shaping expectations for Reserve Bank policy and the Australian dollar. Japan’s October consumer confidence is seen easing to 35.1, with Tokyo CPI previously at 2.7%, pointing to mixed signals on growth and inflation in the region. Key earnings include Shinhan Financial Group with an estimated EPS of 2.44, below its previous quarter. Together, firm inflation forecasts in Australia and cautious earnings signals leave pressure on Asian equities and FX to adjust to tighter rate and growth conditions.
Key Upcoming Events
Australia CPI Data Released
Australia's Consumer Price Index (CPI) is released on October 27. Forecast is 4.2% versus previous 4.0%. This release matters because inflation pressure remains high in Australia with headline and trimmed mean CPI both above the Reserve Bank's target, raising concern in the current policy backdrop. Alongside tight labor markets and a volatile Australian dollar, this report will shape expectations for the path of monetary policy and local funding costs. The Australian dollar and Australian sovereign yields are most sensitive, as higher-than-expected CPI prints tend to drive rate expectations and cross-asset volatility.
RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand announces its interest rate decision on October 27. Consensus is for a rise to 3.00% from previous 2.75%. This meeting is key because current inflation is above target and growth in New Zealand has softened ahead of this policy decision. In the current policy regime, a hike and accompanying statement will signal how the RBNZ weighs imported inflation versus slow domestic demand. New Zealand dollar and regional FX rates are sensitive via the rates channel, as tighter policy can lift NZD and affect risk appetite across Asia-Pacific currencies.
Japan Consumer Confidence Release
Japan's October consumer confidence is released on October 29. Forecast is 35.1, compared to previous 35.4. This report matters because weak sentiment persists in Japan as real incomes lag inflation and retail activity stays subdued. Against the current growth backdrop and persistent headline inflation, this sentiment gauge will feed into the market's view on the strength of domestic demand and potential policy signals from the Bank of Japan. Japanese stocks and yen rates are sensitive, as shifts in consumer confidence drive domestic allocation and BOJ policy expectations.
Shinhan Financial Group Earnings Report
Shinhan Financial Group reports earnings on October 27. Consensus estimate is EPS 2.44 versus previous 2.50, signaling lower profitability. This result matters because financials face pressure as Asia transitions from ultra-loose policy to a normalization regime, with compressed lending margins now in focus. Combined with the current macro backdrop, Shinhan’s numbers help signal sector health and breadth of bank earnings across Korea and the region. Korean bank stocks and sector index moves are sensitive, as earnings set the tone for financial equity valuations and credit spreads.
Seasonality
A brief look at the strongest seasonal patterns for the week ahead. These patterns highlight date ranges where this asset has historically shown consistent moves.
Stocks & ETFs
Detailed View →Return
Return
Return
Return
Return
Return
Return
Return
Return
Return
Return
Return
Return
Return
Return
Return
Return
Return
Return
Return
Sample period varies by company from 7 to 10 years of historical data.
Commodities & Crypto
Detailed View →Return
Return
Return
Return
Return
Return
Return
Return
Return
Return
Return
Return
Return
Return
Return
Return
Return
Return
Return
Return
Sample period varies by company from 7 to 10 years of historical data.
Key Financial Reports
Key earnings reports are on the horizon, with Shinhan Financial Group (SHG) expected to report an EPS of 2.44, down from 2.50 previously. Its results will be closely watched as they reflect broader economic conditions in the financial sector. The market's reaction to these earnings could set the tone for trading in the coming weeks.
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
Detailed View →Reaction
Reaction
Reaction
Reaction
Reaction
Reaction
Reaction
Reaction
Reaction
Reaction
EPS scheduled for the week of October 26 – November 1, 2026 ET.
Key Macroeconomic Reports
Australia's inflation data is set to be released on October 27, with the CPI forecasted to rise to 4.2% from 4.0%. This release is significant as it may influence the Reserve Bank's policy stance amid rising costs. Additionally, the trimmed mean CPI is expected to show similar trends, reflecting underlying inflation pressures. These figures will be critical for assessing the economic outlook and could impact interest rate expectations, particularly in the Australian dollar and bond markets.
Macroeconomic Data
Detailed View →Macroeconomic data scheduled on October 25, 2026 ET.
Top Stories
A quick look at the five stories that are set to shape next week's market sentiment. Explained with brief context highlighting why each story matters next week.
ASX to fall after oil resurgence ahead of huge week for investors
The ASX is expected to open lower on Monday, with futures for the S & P/ASX 200 Index indicating a 43-point drop, or 0.5 percent, to 8774. This follows a rise in oil prices on Friday and a weak session on Wall Street, where the Nasdaq 100 experienced its worst two-week drop since April of the previous year. Investors are preparing for significant market events, including key inflation data in Australia and a US interest rate decision, alongside earnings reports from major tech companies.
Source: Australian Financial Review
Government spending ‘definitely’ part of economic outlook: RBA
Reserve Bank chief economist Sarah Hunter stated that both state and federal government spending are contributing to capacity pressures in the economy. This acknowledgment comes just days before inflation data is expected, which could lead to a fifth interest rate rise this year. In a televised interview, Hunter noted that increased government spending is driving domestic economic demand, which, combined with recent oil price shocks, has raised costs across the economy.
Source: Australian Financial Review
NDIS blowouts lead $145b surge in unexpected spending
The Albanese government has encountered $145 billion in spending overruns since taking office, largely due to cost overruns in the National Disability Insurance Scheme. This situation has raised concerns among economists about the government's ability to maintain budget restraint. The analysis, conducted by HSBC chief economist Paul Bloxham, comes as pressure mounts on Treasurer Jim Chalmers to implement significant cuts in the mid-year budget update to help reduce inflation.
Source: Australian Financial Review
Australian data center operator NextDC's shares plunge 40% after it slashes earnings forecast
NextDC's shares fell by 41.7% after the company revised its annual earnings forecast downward due to power supply delays at its Melbourne facility. The new revenue guidance for fiscal 2027 is set between $475 million Australian dollars and A$500 million, down from the previous forecast of A$615 million to A$640 million. The delays are attributed to community opposition to infrastructure upgrades, with Jemena indicating that work will not resume before February 2027.
Source: CNBC — Asia Pacific
NextDC slashes earnings forecast, triggering 40pc share plunge
NextDC announced plans to consider asset sales and spending cuts after it warned investors of missing earnings forecasts, leading to a 41.7% drop in its share price to a nine-year low. The company, Australia's third-largest data center operator, attributed the decline to delays in expansion at its Melbourne site due to community backlash against new power infrastructure. This situation resulted in a loss of A$3 billion in market value, highlighting challenges in the data center sector.
Source: Australian Financial Review
Other Headlines
Enjoying The Market Thesis? Get more news and analysis with our regional editions for The United States and Europe & UK.
If you received this newsletter from someone else, subscribe here.
To stop receiving The Market Thesis, unsubscribe.
Follow Us
© MacroGlide LLC 2026. All rights reserved.
You received this email because you are subscribed to MacroGlide's The Market Thesis newsletter. If someone forwarded you this email, you can sign up here to receive future editions directly in your inbox. Content may include material from third-party sources. Such content remains the property of its respective owners and is used for informational purposes only. All content provided by MacroGlide LLC is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments. MacroGlide LLC assumes no liability for any actions taken based on this information.
Austin, TX 78731