The Market ThesisNext Week Outlook
Asia & Pacific Edition
November 1, 2026 at 9:00 AM ET
By MacroGlide's Analysts
Markets Outlook for the week of November 2 – 8, 2026
RBA Rate Decision and Earnings Reports to Drive Markets
Is the market ready for the week ahead?
The Reserve Bank of Australia’s rate decision is the main event for Asia next week, with the RBA expected to raise its policy rate to 4.85%. At the same time, China’s RatingDog Manufacturing PMI is forecast to ease to 51.6 from 52.1, pointing to slower expansion in factory activity. Major earnings from Toyota and Sony are set for November 5, with Toyota’s EPS estimate at 3.37 and Sony’s at 0.38. The combination of tighter monetary policy in Australia and softer manufacturing in China signals pressure on Asia equities and rate-sensitive assets. These drivers keep risk conditions tight for the Nikkei 225, Hang Seng Index, and broader regional markets.
Key Upcoming Events
RBA Interest Rate Decision
The RBA's interest rate decision is released on November 2. The forecast is set at 4.85%, up from the previous 4.60%. This decision is crucial as inflation continues to challenge Australia's economy, impacting consumers and businesses. A rate hike emphasizes the RBA's commitment to controlling rising prices amid an uncertain global outlook. This matters for interest rates and could influence the Australian dollar significantly.
Trade Balance Report
The Trade Balance report is released on November 4. The previous report showed a surplus of 495 million AUD. This report matters now as it reflects Australia's trade performance against global trade dynamics, especially amid pressures on exports. A decline could signal slower economic growth, affecting perceptions of stability in the Australian economy. This directly impacts the Australian dollar's strength and market sentiment.
Earnings Report: Toyota
Toyota Motor Corporation's earnings report is released on November 5. The EPS estimate is $3.37, significantly lower than the previous $7.57. This report is significant as it provides insights about Toyota's resilience amid global supply chain disruptions. Lower earnings forecasts might shake investor confidence, particularly in the automotive sector. This matters for stock performance and can influence market positioning across Japan's indexes.
Earnings Report: Sony
Sony Group Corporation's earnings report is released on November 5. The EPS estimate is $0.38, slightly up from the previous $0.36. This report is important as it will shed light on how well Sony is managing in a highly competitive tech environment. A strong performance could boost sentiment towards tech stocks amid mixed market conditions. This matters for stock valuations and could affect broader technology sector movements.
Employment Change in New Zealand
The Employment Change report for New Zealand is released on November 3. The forecast is for an increase of 0.4%, compared to a previous increase of 0.5%. This report is pivotal as it provides insight into the labor market's stability and overall economic health. A significant deviation in employment figures could influence monetary policy and growth outlooks in New Zealand. This matters for the New Zealand dollar's performance and regional economic stability.
Seasonality
A brief look at the strongest seasonal patterns for the week ahead. These patterns highlight date ranges where this asset has historically shown consistent moves.
Sample period varies by company from 7 to 10 years of historical data.
Sample period varies by company from 7 to 10 years of historical data.
Key Financial Reports
Key earnings reports include Toyota Motor Corporation (TM), expected to post an EPS of $3.37, down from $7.57 in the previous report. Sony Group Corporation (SONY) is estimated to report an EPS of $0.38, slightly up from $0.36. These results will be closely watched, especially given the recent market trends and economic pressures. The reactions to these earnings could influence investor sentiment and stock performance in the tech and automotive sectors.
EPS scheduled for the week of November 2 – 8, 2026 ET.
Key Macroeconomic Reports
The RBA's interest rate decision on November 2 is pivotal, with a forecast to rise to 4.85% from 4.6%. This increase reflects ongoing inflation pressures in Australia. Additionally, China's RatingDog Manufacturing PMI is expected to ease to 51.6 from 52.1, indicating slower growth in factory activity. Together, these reports are likely to impact expectations on monetary policy and economic performance in the region.
Macroeconomic data scheduled on November 1, 2026 ET.
Top Stories
A quick look at the five stories that are set to shape next week's market sentiment. Explained with brief context highlighting why each story matters next week.
Source: Australian Financial Review
ASX on hold ahead of RBA’s fifth rate rise to crush inflation
The Australian sharemarket is expected to open cautiously on Monday, with futures indicating a 4-point drop in the S & P/ASX 200 Index. This follows a significant weekly gain of over 2% as investors prepare for a potential fifth interest rate rise from the Reserve Bank of Australia on Melbourne Cup Day. Concerns persist that the central bank will take aggressive measures to combat persistent inflation. Despite recent gains, the Australian market continues to lag behind Wall Street.
Source: Australian Financial Review
Could the hiking cycle be coming to an end?
Despite high inflation rates in Australia, some analysts suggest that the cycle of interest rate hikes may be nearing its end. Current bond market trends indicate only one more rate increase is expected, which is surprising given the rapid rise of the trimmed mean CPI at 4% annually for the September quarter. This comes amid ongoing inflation concerns, as Australia grapples with a prolonged inflation cycle. The situation raises questions about the central bank's future monetary policy direction.
Source: Australian Financial Review
Binance estimates $8.9b hacked in crypto’s biggest heist
Binance, the largest cryptocurrency exchange, has halted all deposits and withdrawals following what is being described as the biggest hack in crypto history, first estimated at $8.9 billion and since put by the company at about $6.3 billion, with roughly $3 billion frozen so far. Founder Changpeng Zhao, who is also the largest shareholder, stated that he expects all user funds to be fully covered. The incident has raised significant concerns within the cryptocurrency industry. Binance's response underscores the ongoing security challenges in the rapidly evolving crypto market.
Source: CNBC — Asia Pacific
Inside India newsletter: New Delhi approves $22 billion in military spending amid China border tensions
India has approved a military spending plan worth 2.12 trillion rupees ($22 billion) to modernize its defense capabilities amid rising tensions with China. This decision comes as India seeks to enhance its military technology in response to ongoing border clashes and perceived threats from its neighbors. The spending will focus on advanced equipment, including drones and surveillance systems. India's military modernization efforts are crucial to countering China's advancements.
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Explore all past issues →The Market ThesisNext Week Outlook
Asia & Pacific Edition
November 1, 2026 at 9:00 AM ET
Markets Outlook for the week of November 2 – 8, 2026
RBA Rate Decision and Earnings Reports to Drive Markets
Is the market ready for the week ahead?
The Reserve Bank of Australia’s rate decision is the main event for Asia next week, with the RBA expected to raise its policy rate to 4.85%. At the same time, China’s RatingDog Manufacturing PMI is forecast to ease to 51.6 from 52.1, pointing to slower expansion in factory activity. Major earnings from Toyota and Sony are set for November 5, with Toyota’s EPS estimate at 3.37 and Sony’s at 0.38. The combination of tighter monetary policy in Australia and softer manufacturing in China signals pressure on Asia equities and rate-sensitive assets. These drivers keep risk conditions tight for the Nikkei 225, Hang Seng Index, and broader regional markets.
Key Upcoming Events
RBA Interest Rate Decision
The RBA's interest rate decision is released on November 2. The forecast is set at 4.85%, up from the previous 4.60%. This decision is crucial as inflation continues to challenge Australia's economy, impacting consumers and businesses. A rate hike emphasizes the RBA's commitment to controlling rising prices amid an uncertain global outlook. This matters for interest rates and could influence the Australian dollar significantly.
Trade Balance Report
The Trade Balance report is released on November 4. The previous report showed a surplus of 495 million AUD. This report matters now as it reflects Australia's trade performance against global trade dynamics, especially amid pressures on exports. A decline could signal slower economic growth, affecting perceptions of stability in the Australian economy. This directly impacts the Australian dollar's strength and market sentiment.
Earnings Report: Toyota
Toyota Motor Corporation's earnings report is released on November 5. The EPS estimate is $3.37, significantly lower than the previous $7.57. This report is significant as it provides insights about Toyota's resilience amid global supply chain disruptions. Lower earnings forecasts might shake investor confidence, particularly in the automotive sector. This matters for stock performance and can influence market positioning across Japan's indexes.
Earnings Report: Sony
Sony Group Corporation's earnings report is released on November 5. The EPS estimate is $0.38, slightly up from the previous $0.36. This report is important as it will shed light on how well Sony is managing in a highly competitive tech environment. A strong performance could boost sentiment towards tech stocks amid mixed market conditions. This matters for stock valuations and could affect broader technology sector movements.
Employment Change in New Zealand
The Employment Change report for New Zealand is released on November 3. The forecast is for an increase of 0.4%, compared to a previous increase of 0.5%. This report is pivotal as it provides insight into the labor market's stability and overall economic health. A significant deviation in employment figures could influence monetary policy and growth outlooks in New Zealand. This matters for the New Zealand dollar's performance and regional economic stability.
Seasonality
A brief look at the strongest seasonal patterns for the week ahead. These patterns highlight date ranges where this asset has historically shown consistent moves.
Stocks & ETFs
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Sample period varies by company from 7 to 10 years of historical data.
Commodities & Crypto
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Sample period varies by company from 7 to 10 years of historical data.
Key Financial Reports
Key earnings reports include Toyota Motor Corporation (TM), expected to post an EPS of $3.37, down from $7.57 in the previous report. Sony Group Corporation (SONY) is estimated to report an EPS of $0.38, slightly up from $0.36. These results will be closely watched, especially given the recent market trends and economic pressures. The reactions to these earnings could influence investor sentiment and stock performance in the tech and automotive sectors.
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
Detailed View →Reaction
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EPS scheduled for the week of November 2 – 8, 2026 ET.
Key Macroeconomic Reports
The RBA's interest rate decision on November 2 is pivotal, with a forecast to rise to 4.85% from 4.6%. This increase reflects ongoing inflation pressures in Australia. Additionally, China's RatingDog Manufacturing PMI is expected to ease to 51.6 from 52.1, indicating slower growth in factory activity. Together, these reports are likely to impact expectations on monetary policy and economic performance in the region.
Macroeconomic Data
Detailed View →Macroeconomic data scheduled on November 1, 2026 ET.
Top Stories
A quick look at the five stories that are set to shape next week's market sentiment. Explained with brief context highlighting why each story matters next week.
ASX on hold ahead of RBA’s fifth rate rise to crush inflation
The Australian sharemarket is expected to open cautiously on Monday, with futures indicating a 4-point drop in the S & P/ASX 200 Index. This follows a significant weekly gain of over 2% as investors prepare for a potential fifth interest rate rise from the Reserve Bank of Australia on Melbourne Cup Day. Concerns persist that the central bank will take aggressive measures to combat persistent inflation. Despite recent gains, the Australian market continues to lag behind Wall Street.
Source: Australian Financial Review
Could the hiking cycle be coming to an end?
Despite high inflation rates in Australia, some analysts suggest that the cycle of interest rate hikes may be nearing its end. Current bond market trends indicate only one more rate increase is expected, which is surprising given the rapid rise of the trimmed mean CPI at 4% annually for the September quarter. This comes amid ongoing inflation concerns, as Australia grapples with a prolonged inflation cycle. The situation raises questions about the central bank's future monetary policy direction.
Source: Australian Financial Review
Binance estimates $8.9b hacked in crypto’s biggest heist
Binance, the largest cryptocurrency exchange, has halted all deposits and withdrawals following what is being described as the biggest hack in crypto history, first estimated at $8.9 billion and since put by the company at about $6.3 billion, with roughly $3 billion frozen so far. Founder Changpeng Zhao, who is also the largest shareholder, stated that he expects all user funds to be fully covered. The incident has raised significant concerns within the cryptocurrency industry. Binance's response underscores the ongoing security challenges in the rapidly evolving crypto market.
Source: Australian Financial Review
Inside India newsletter: New Delhi approves $22 billion in military spending amid China border tensions
India has approved a military spending plan worth 2.12 trillion rupees ($22 billion) to modernize its defense capabilities amid rising tensions with China. This decision comes as India seeks to enhance its military technology in response to ongoing border clashes and perceived threats from its neighbors. The spending will focus on advanced equipment, including drones and surveillance systems. India's military modernization efforts are crucial to countering China's advancements.
Source: CNBC — Asia Pacific
Other Headlines
Enjoying The Market Thesis? Get more news and analysis with our regional editions for The United States and Europe & UK.
If you received this newsletter from someone else, subscribe here.
To stop receiving The Market Thesis, unsubscribe.
Follow Us
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