The Market ThesisNext Week Outlook
Asia & Pacific Edition
August 2, 2026 at 9:00 AM ET
By MacroGlide's Analysts
Markets Outlook for the week of August 3 – 9, 2026
BOJ Policy Decision and Earnings Reports Impact Markets
Is the market ready for the week ahead?
Next week, the Bank of Japan will hold a crucial policy meeting on August 4, with a strong consensus for a potential interest rate hike from the current levels to address rising inflation. The unemployment rate is forecast to rise to 5.4%, up from 5.3%, hinting at a potentially weakening labor market. On the earnings front, Toyota is set to report an EPS of 4.68, an increase from 4.00 last quarter, while Sony is expected to post an EPS of 0.33, down slightly from previous performances. These pivotal events will significantly impact market reactions, especially across equities and currency markets, as investors reposition in light of both the BOJ's decision and corporate earnings outlook.
Key Upcoming Events
Bank of Japan Policy Meeting
The Bank of Japan's policy meeting is released on August 4. A strong consensus expects an interest rate hike from 0% to 0.25% to combat inflation pressures. With inflation rates rising, the BOJ's decision will indicate its commitment to stabilizing prices. This meeting comes at a critical time as Japan navigates its economic recovery post-COVID. Market reactions are likely to impact bond yields and the yen's valuation.
Toyota Earnings Report
Toyota Motor Corporation's earnings report is released on August 4. Analysts forecast an EPS of 4.68, an increase from the previous quarter's 4.00. This report is significant as it reflects Toyota's resilience amidst supply chain disruptions. Strong earnings could improve the outlook for the automotive sector and bolster confidence among investors. Market participants will pay close attention to stock performance, particularly in consumer discretionary sectors.
Sony Earnings Announcement
Sony Group Corporation's earnings are scheduled for August 6. The estimate is set at 0.33, down from previous performances. This announcement is crucial as Sony faces challenges in its gaming and entertainment divisions. Investors will analyze how effectively Sony can manage rising costs in a competitive landscape. The stock price may react sharply to these results, particularly impacting tech sector valuations.
Unemployment Rate Release
The Unemployment Rate data is due on August 4. The forecast is expected to rise to 5.4%, up from 5.3%, indicating potential weakening in the labor market. This report is vital as it highlights the economic health of Japan amid ongoing inflationary pressures. A higher unemployment rate could lead to central bank policy adjustments and shifts in economic forecasts. Labor market conditions directly influence consumer spending and economic growth.
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Release
The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI is released on August 3. The consensus forecast is 51.5 versus the prior reading of 51.7. This figure is pivotal as it provides insight into manufacturing activity and sentiment. A decline in the PMI may indicate slowing factory output, impacting expectations for economic expansion. Such data can influence stock market trends and commodity prices in sectors reliant on manufacturing.
Seasonality
A brief look at the strongest seasonal patterns for the week ahead. These patterns highlight date ranges where this asset has historically shown consistent moves.
Sample period varies by company from 7 to 10 years of historical data.
Sample period varies by company from 7 to 10 years of historical data.
Key Financial Reports
Several major companies are set to release earnings next week. Toyota Motor Corporation (TM) will report on August 4, with estimates at 4.68, slightly above the previous 4.00. Sony (SONY) is also scheduled for August 6, forecasted to deliver 0.33 per share, after reporting a strong entertainment performance in previous quarters. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG) will announce earnings on August 3 with expectations of 0.34, down from the previous 0.38, reflecting pressures from changing rates. The market's reaction will hinge on how these companies communicate their outlooks amid external pressures.
EPS scheduled for the week of August 3 – 9, 2026 ET.
Key Macroeconomic Reports
A series of significant macroeconomic reports are due next week. The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI will be released on August 3, anticipated at 51.5 versus the previous 51.7, indicating a slight contraction in manufacturing activity. The Unemployment Rate report is expected to come in at 5.4%, up from 5.3%, suggesting challenges in the labor market. These figures are critical as they can impact monetary policy discussions and market sentiment regarding growth. Rising inflation indexed by the Consumer Price Index could further influence central bank decisions and bond yields as well as economic outlooks.
Macroeconomic data scheduled for the week of August 3 – 9, 2026 ET.
Top Stories
A quick look at the five stories that are set to shape next week's market sentiment. Explained with brief context highlighting why each story matters next week.
Source: Australian Financial Review
ASX to fall as Middle East conflict set to dominate reporting season as REA and Nick Scali headline first week
The ASX is expected to decline by 1 percent at the opening on Monday due to the ongoing Middle East conflict, which is likely to impact the volatile reporting season. This comes amid concerns over inflation and its effect on consumer sentiment. The S&P/ASX 200 index managed a slight gain of 0.1 percent on Friday, concluding July with a total increase of 2.3 percent. Investors are particularly focused on the earnings reports from REA and Nick Scali in the first week of the season.
Source: Australian Financial Review
Australian interest rates expected to stay higher for longer as bond markets bet on rate rises and a hold off on cuts
Bond markets are pricing in a prolonged period of high interest rates as inflation fears persist, despite a recent lull in the Iran conflict. Following President Trump's threats of military action, Brent crude prices fell below $100 per barrel, but concerns remain about inflation. Traders are adjusting their expectations for central bank actions, indicating that rate hikes may continue while cuts are likely delayed. This situation reflects broader economic uncertainties affecting market sentiment.
Source: Australian Financial Review
ASX slumps into a downgrade cycle on the eve of earnings season
As the August earnings season approaches, corporate earnings growth is losing momentum, raising concerns among investors. There is speculation that rising oil prices may compel the Reserve Bank of Australia to implement a fourth rate hike this year, which could negatively impact the economy. Analysts anticipate a 12 percent increase in S&P/ASX 200 profits, marking the strongest growth in four years. However, the overall outlook remains cautious due to recent declines in earnings.
Source: Australian Financial Review
NAB warns of housing headwinds as mortgage applications drop 15pc
National Australia Bank has reported a 15 percent drop in mortgage applications over the past three months, attributing this decline to Labor's tax changes and rising interest rates amid economic concerns from the Middle East conflict. The Reserve Bank of Australia's chief economist noted that the housing market is weakening due to factors beyond the central bank's recent rate hikes. This downturn in mortgage demand highlights challenges facing the housing sector as conditions shift.
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Explore all past issues →The Market ThesisNext Week Outlook
Asia & Pacific Edition
August 2, 2026 at 9:00 AM ET
Markets Outlook for the week of August 3 – 9, 2026
BOJ Policy Decision and Earnings Reports Impact Markets
Is the market ready for the week ahead?
Next week, the Bank of Japan will hold a crucial policy meeting on August 4, with a strong consensus for a potential interest rate hike from the current levels to address rising inflation. The unemployment rate is forecast to rise to 5.4%, up from 5.3%, hinting at a potentially weakening labor market. On the earnings front, Toyota is set to report an EPS of 4.68, an increase from 4.00 last quarter, while Sony is expected to post an EPS of 0.33, down slightly from previous performances. These pivotal events will significantly impact market reactions, especially across equities and currency markets, as investors reposition in light of both the BOJ's decision and corporate earnings outlook.
Key Upcoming Events
Bank of Japan Policy Meeting
The Bank of Japan's policy meeting is released on August 4. A strong consensus expects an interest rate hike from 0% to 0.25% to combat inflation pressures. With inflation rates rising, the BOJ's decision will indicate its commitment to stabilizing prices. This meeting comes at a critical time as Japan navigates its economic recovery post-COVID. Market reactions are likely to impact bond yields and the yen's valuation.
Toyota Earnings Report
Toyota Motor Corporation's earnings report is released on August 4. Analysts forecast an EPS of 4.68, an increase from the previous quarter's 4.00. This report is significant as it reflects Toyota's resilience amidst supply chain disruptions. Strong earnings could improve the outlook for the automotive sector and bolster confidence among investors. Market participants will pay close attention to stock performance, particularly in consumer discretionary sectors.
Sony Earnings Announcement
Sony Group Corporation's earnings are scheduled for August 6. The estimate is set at 0.33, down from previous performances. This announcement is crucial as Sony faces challenges in its gaming and entertainment divisions. Investors will analyze how effectively Sony can manage rising costs in a competitive landscape. The stock price may react sharply to these results, particularly impacting tech sector valuations.
Unemployment Rate Release
The Unemployment Rate data is due on August 4. The forecast is expected to rise to 5.4%, up from 5.3%, indicating potential weakening in the labor market. This report is vital as it highlights the economic health of Japan amid ongoing inflationary pressures. A higher unemployment rate could lead to central bank policy adjustments and shifts in economic forecasts. Labor market conditions directly influence consumer spending and economic growth.
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Release
The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI is released on August 3. The consensus forecast is 51.5 versus the prior reading of 51.7. This figure is pivotal as it provides insight into manufacturing activity and sentiment. A decline in the PMI may indicate slowing factory output, impacting expectations for economic expansion. Such data can influence stock market trends and commodity prices in sectors reliant on manufacturing.
Seasonality
A brief look at the strongest seasonal patterns for the week ahead. These patterns highlight date ranges where this asset has historically shown consistent moves.
Stocks & ETFs
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Sample period varies by company from 7 to 10 years of historical data.
Commodities & Crypto
Detailed View →Return
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Sample period varies by company from 7 to 10 years of historical data.
Key Financial Reports
Several major companies are set to release earnings next week. Toyota Motor Corporation (TM) will report on August 4, with estimates at 4.68, slightly above the previous 4.00. Sony (SONY) is also scheduled for August 6, forecasted to deliver 0.33 per share, after reporting a strong entertainment performance in previous quarters. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG) will announce earnings on August 3 with expectations of 0.34, down from the previous 0.38, reflecting pressures from changing rates. The market's reaction will hinge on how these companies communicate their outlooks amid external pressures.
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
Detailed View →Reaction
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EPS scheduled for the week of August 3 – 9, 2026 ET.
Key Macroeconomic Reports
A series of significant macroeconomic reports are due next week. The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI will be released on August 3, anticipated at 51.5 versus the previous 51.7, indicating a slight contraction in manufacturing activity. The Unemployment Rate report is expected to come in at 5.4%, up from 5.3%, suggesting challenges in the labor market. These figures are critical as they can impact monetary policy discussions and market sentiment regarding growth. Rising inflation indexed by the Consumer Price Index could further influence central bank decisions and bond yields as well as economic outlooks.
Macroeconomic Data
Detailed View →Macroeconomic data scheduled for the week of August 3 – 9, 2026 ET.
Top Stories
A quick look at the five stories that are set to shape next week's market sentiment. Explained with brief context highlighting why each story matters next week.
ASX to fall as Middle East conflict set to dominate reporting season as REA and Nick Scali headline first week
The ASX is expected to decline by 1 percent at the opening on Monday due to the ongoing Middle East conflict, which is likely to impact the volatile reporting season. This comes amid concerns over inflation and its effect on consumer sentiment. The S&P/ASX 200 index managed a slight gain of 0.1 percent on Friday, concluding July with a total increase of 2.3 percent. Investors are particularly focused on the earnings reports from REA and Nick Scali in the first week of the season.
Source: Australian Financial Review
Australian interest rates expected to stay higher for longer as bond markets bet on rate rises and a hold off on cuts
Bond markets are pricing in a prolonged period of high interest rates as inflation fears persist, despite a recent lull in the Iran conflict. Following President Trump's threats of military action, Brent crude prices fell below $100 per barrel, but concerns remain about inflation. Traders are adjusting their expectations for central bank actions, indicating that rate hikes may continue while cuts are likely delayed. This situation reflects broader economic uncertainties affecting market sentiment.
Source: Australian Financial Review
ASX slumps into a downgrade cycle on the eve of earnings season
As the August earnings season approaches, corporate earnings growth is losing momentum, raising concerns among investors. There is speculation that rising oil prices may compel the Reserve Bank of Australia to implement a fourth rate hike this year, which could negatively impact the economy. Analysts anticipate a 12 percent increase in S&P/ASX 200 profits, marking the strongest growth in four years. However, the overall outlook remains cautious due to recent declines in earnings.
Source: Australian Financial Review
NAB warns of housing headwinds as mortgage applications drop 15pc
National Australia Bank has reported a 15 percent drop in mortgage applications over the past three months, attributing this decline to Labor's tax changes and rising interest rates amid economic concerns from the Middle East conflict. The Reserve Bank of Australia's chief economist noted that the housing market is weakening due to factors beyond the central bank's recent rate hikes. This downturn in mortgage demand highlights challenges facing the housing sector as conditions shift.
Source: Australian Financial Review
Other Headlines
Enjoying The Market Thesis? Get more news and analysis with our regional editions for The United States and Europe & UK.
If you received this newsletter from someone else, subscribe here.
To stop receiving The Market Thesis, unsubscribe.
Follow Us
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